Changing risk preferences in supply chain inventory decisions

The risk preferences of managers may cause their inventory ordering decisions to deviate from the optimal policy. Past studies in operations management have produced mixed results. This study examines this proposition using decision data collected from a supply chain experiment. This article finds that changing the risk preferences of managers with respect to demand changes and supplier failures is a significant behavioural factor in explaining deviations in ordering decisions. This result provides an additional behavioural cause in explaining the bullwhip effect in supply chains. It also provides insights on the challenges for reducing the bullwhip effect in supply chains.     

Does superstition help? A study of the role of superstitions and death beliefs on death anxiety amongst Chinese undergraduates in Hong Kong

Past research has shown that traditional Chinese death beliefs, which mostly consisted of superstitious thoughts, are related to death anxiety. However, other studies have shown that superstitions may help people cope with uncertainty and, therefore, reduce uncertainty-induced anxiety. The role of superstitions, whether related to heightened death anxiety or reduced death anxiety, is unclear. This study attempted to address the knowledge gap by examining the relationships among superstitions and Chinese death beliefs on death anxiety in the Chinese context. One hundred twenty-four undergraduates in Hong Kong completed measures of superstition (R-PBS), death anxiety (MFODS), and Chinese death beliefs scale. Superstition was found to be predictor of death anxiety, as expected. With superstitions highly prevalent in Chinese societies, the study has practical implications in end-of-life care, bereavement support, and death education in the Chinese context.     

Decomposing the Effect of Commercialization on Nonprofit Donations

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - Whether commercialization crowds out nonprofit donations has been a concern for nonprofit professionals and scholars. If...     

A note on the distribution of mean square error of forecasting

Simulation has been a very important and widely used method in the study of misspecification or order determination in time series analysis. Mean square error of forecasting (MSEF) has been a major criterion for comparing the performance of different models. In simulation studies, standard deviations of MSEF's are calculated from the computed values of the MSEF's, In this note, the distribution of MSEF from simulation studies is established. Exact variance of the MSEF can be obtained from the prespecified values of the model selected for simulation. This variance should be a more appropriate criterion for evaluating the performance between models.     

An Approximate Bayesian Algorithm for Combining Forecasts*

In this paper we propose a consensus forecasting method based on a convex combination of individual forecast densities. The exact Bayesian updating of the convex combination weights is very complex and practically prohibitive. We propose a simple sequential updating alternative method based on function approximation. Several examples illustrate the method.     

浅谈大学生的择业观

在高等教育大众化的今天,就业形势日益严峻,迫使大学毕业生必须正视就业现实,放弃不切实际的择业思想.高校应该教育和引导学生树立正确的择业观,从而为大学生毕业后顺利就业奠定良好基础.     

北宋重要诗案与诗歌发展的转向

诗案对诗歌的发展影响深远,是北宋诗歌和政治关系的一个重要切入点。北宋以儒立国,诗人以诗议政,发挥儒家政教精神,但屡屡因诗得祸。诗祸与新旧党争密切相连,从乌台诗案的政见之争,到车盖亭诗案的党同伐异,再到崇宁全面文禁的意气用事,始终贯穿着鲜明的政治特色。诗人的命运随着政党的得势与否而浮沉,而且波及的诗人一次比一次多。党派之间的权力之争、喜同恶异使诗人难以独善其身及保持创作的独立批评精神。诗人的创作经此连绵的政治打击,由经世致用转向寻求安身立命和追求纯粹技艺,崇宁四年(1105)后,北宋诗坛批评政治的诗歌陷入历史低谷。凡此,与北宋诗案的政治化本质而造成的负面影响息息相关。     

SPECTRAL ANALYSIS IN BUSINESS FORECASTING*

Although spectral analysis has previously been discussed in a number of business journals, the discussion has not been detailed enough for non-mathematicians. The objective of this paper is to review in detail the concepts and to go over the computations of spectral analysis as they pertain to forecasting. To gain insight into the model building technique of spectral analysis, a passing comparison with a familiar model–regression–is made. Regression analysis attempts to find a set of independent variables that shed some light on the dependent variable to be forecasted. In other words, if the independent variables have some functional relationship with the dependent variable, a reliable forecast of the dependent variable can then be made. Forecasting using spectral analysis, on the other hand, is based on the assumption that the variation of a time series can be explained by some mixture of sine and cosine waves. Model parameters can then be estimated for these waves and forecasts be made. These parameters have the same property of least squares as in ordinary regression analysis. A transformation of these parameters gives the spectra of the time series. The spectra are related to the explained variation present in regression analysis. An extension of the spectra gives a set of coefficients of an autoregressive forecasting model. This latter model is referred to as the Wiener-Kolmogorov forecasting model.     

Selection of the splined variables and convergence rates in a partial spline model

A method based on the principle of unbiased risk estimation is used to select the splined variables in an exploratory partial spline model proposed by Wahba (1985). The probability of correct selection based on the proposed procedure is discussed under regularity conditions. Furthermore, the resulting estimate of the regression function achieves the optimal rates of convergence over a general class of smooth regression functions (Stone 1982) when its underlying smoothness condition is not known.