数字融入对老年人主观幸福感影响及路径研究

基于 2017 年中国综合社会调查（CGSS）数据,通过构建结构方程模型,考察老年人数字融入对主观幸福感的影响,以及社会参与在其中的中介作用。结果显示,数字融入对老年人主观幸福感具有积极作用（b=0.120,P<0.001）,同时数字融入对社会参与有促进作用（b=0.509, P<0.001）,社会参与对主观幸福感也有显著正向影响（b=0.166,P<0.001）。社会参与在数字融入与主观幸福感之间发挥部分中介作用,中介效应比例为 42.9%。应鼓励老年人主动学习数字技能、积极参与社交活动,并完善数字设施建设,以提高老年人数字素养,减少社交孤立,使其更好地融入数字化社会。     

雇佣劳动与中国近代农业的发展

研究雇佣劳动不失为了解经济和社会发展的一把钥匙。然而,关于雇佣劳动的传统观点有碍于这种研究。考察雇佣劳动的历史,可以发现,其产生并非财产占有的不均,而是社会分工的客观需要。这种劳动的发展与商品经济紧密相依,实际上存在非商品生产的、小商品生产的和商品生产的三种性质类型。近代中国农业雇佣劳动的性质兼有非商品生产性和小商品生产性。由于土地制度和社会商品经济发展程度的制约,近代中国农业雇佣劳动不可能达到它的下一个发展阶段。     

M-quantile models with application to poverty mapping

Over the last decade there has been growing demand for estimates of population characteristics at small area level. Unfortunately, cost constraints in the design of sample surveys lead to small sample sizes within these areas and as a result direct estimation, using only the survey data, is inappropriate since it yields estimates with unacceptable levels of precision. Small area models are designed to tackle the small sample size problem. The most popular class of models for small area estimation is random effects models that include random area effects to account for between area variations. However, such models also depend on strong distributional assumptions, require a formal specification of the random part of the model and do not easily allow for outlier robust inference. An alternative approach to small area estimation that is based on the use of M-quantile models was recently proposed by Chambers and Tzavidis (Biometrika 93(2):255–268, 2006) and Tzavidis and Chambers (Robust prediction of small area means and distributions. Working paper, 2007). Unlike traditional random effects models, M-quantile models do not depend on strong distributional assumption and automatically provide outlier robust inference. In this paper we illustrate for the first time how M-quantile models can be practically employed for deriving small area estimates of poverty and inequality. The methodology we propose improves the traditional poverty mapping methods in the following ways: (a) it enables the estimation of the distribution function of the study variable within the small area of interest both under an M-quantile and a random effects model, (b) it provides analytical, instead of empirical, estimation of the mean squared error of the M-quantile small area mean estimates and (c) it employs a robust to outliers estimation method. The methodology is applied to data from the 2002 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) in Albania for estimating (a) district level estimates of the incidence of poverty in Albania, (b) district level inequality measures and (c) the distribution function of household per-capita consumption expenditure in each district. Small area estimates of poverty and inequality show that the poorest Albanian districts are in the mountainous regions (north and north east) with the wealthiest districts, which are also linked with high levels of inequality, in the coastal (south west) and southern part of country. We discuss the practical advantages of our methodology and note the consistency of our results with results from previous studies. We further demonstrate the usefulness of the M-quantile estimation framework through design-based simulations based on two realistic survey data sets containing small area information and show that the M-quantile approach may be preferable when the aim is to estimate the small area distribution function.     

转型期中国省际经济波动对经济增长的空间溢出效应

本文基于中国31个省市1979-2012年的数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型,实证分析转型期中国省际经济波动对经济增长的空间溢出效应及其形成机制,得出结论如下:经济波动在淘汰本地区低效率投资项目和企业、优化投资结构、从而对本地区经济增长产生正向直接效应的基础上,因受中国地区间激烈竞争和产业同构的影响,会吸引邻近地区的优质资源,对这些地区的投资结构产生不利影响,进而对经济增长产生负向空间溢出效应.并且,从动态视角的检验发现,相比于短期,两种效应在长期的作用更大.本文关于经济波动对经济增长空间溢出效应的研究对于解释中国经济波动与经济增长的关系机理,以及对于区域经济协同发展、加快国内市场一体化相关政策的制定具有重要意义.     

锁龙沟往事

往事越千年,怀思方寸间。随着时光的流逝,诸多事物已被岁月的尘沙掩埋得更深,或者消亡殆尽。而那些不朽的往事和传说,仍旧对抗着时空,悬浮于世间,在我们的周围散发着浓淡相宜的历史幽情。锁龙沟位于调兵山市南郊,蜿蜒在     

借鉴域外经验推进国家志愿服务立法

随着我国志愿服务事业的蓬勃发展,已有部分省市出台了志愿服务地方性法规.为规范和推进志愿服务事业发展,迫切需要加快国家立法.本文试从学习借鉴域外立法经验的角度,对国家志愿服务立法的重要意义、基本原则、基本内容及重点难点等进行初步的探析,并提出相关的对策.     

Coalitional stability and efficiency of partitions in matching problems

?zkal-Sanver (Theory Decis 59:193–205, 2005) studies stability and efficiency of partitions of agents in two-sided matching markets in which agents can form partitions by individual moves only, and a matching rule determines the matching in each coalition in a partition. In this study, we present the relationship between stability and efficiency of partitions that is analyzed for several matching rules and under various membership property rights codes, now allowing coalitional moves.     

Dynamic reasoning and time pressure: Transition from analytical operations to experiential responses

Based upon the Decision Field Theory (Busemeyer and Townsend 1993), we tested a model of dynamic reasoning to predict the effect of time pressure on analytical and experiential processing during decision-making. Forty-six participants were required to make investment decisions under four levels of time pressure. In each decision, participants were presented with experiential cues which were either congruent or incongruent with the analytical information. The congruent/incongruent conditions allowed us to examine how many decisions were based upon the experiential versus the analytical information, and to see if this was affected by the varying degrees of time pressure. As expected, the overall accuracy was reduced with greater time pressure and accuracy was higher when the experiential and analytical cues were congruent than when they were incongruent. Of great interest was the data showing that under high time pressure participants used more experiential cues than at other time pressures. We suggest that the dynamic reasoning paradigm has some future potential for predicting the effects of experiential biases in general, and specifically under time pressure.     

Beliefs about overconfidence

This experiment elicits beliefs about other people’s overconfidence and abilities. We find that most people believe that others are unbiased, and only few think that others are overconfident. There is a remarkable heterogeneity between these groups. Those people who think others are underconfident or unbiased are overconfident themselves. Those who think others are overconfident are underconfident themselves. Despite this heterogeneity, people overestimate on average the abilities of others as they do their own ability. One driving force behind this result is the refusal to process information about oneself: not only does this lead to overestimation of one’s own ability, but by means of social projection also to overestimation of others’ abilities.     

Beneficial safety decreases

We construct a model of rational choice under risk with biased risk judgement. On its basis, we argue that sometimes, a regulator aiming at maximising social welfare should affect the environment in such a way that it becomes ‘less safe’ in common perception. More specifically, we introduce a bias into each agent’s choice of optimal risk levels: consequently, in certain environments, agents choose a behaviour that realises higher risks than intended. Individuals incur a welfare loss through this bias. We show that by deteriorating the environment, the regulator can motivate individuals to choose behaviour that is less biased, and hence realises risk levels closer to what individuals intended. We formally investigate the conditions under which such a Beneficial Safety Decrease—i.e. a deteriorating intervention that has a positive welfare effect—exists. Finally, we discuss three applications of our model.