An empirical Bayes' procedure for ranking players in Ryder Cup golf

We describe a model to obtain strengths and rankings of players appearing in golf's Ryder Cup. Obtaining rankings is complicated because of two reasons. First, competitors do not compete on an equal number of occasions, with some competitors appearing too infrequently for their ranking to be estimated with any degree of certainty, and second, different competitors experience different levels of volatility in results. Our approach is to assume the competitor strengths are drawn from some common distribution. For small numbers of competitors, as is the case here, we fit the model using Monte-Carlo integration. Results suggest there is very little difference between the top performing players, though Scotland's Colin Montgomerie is estimated as the strongest Ryder Cup player.     

A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism

This article presents a framework for economic consequence analysis of terrorism countermeasures. It specifies major categories of direct and indirect costs, benefits, spillover effects, and transfer payments that must be estimated in a comprehensive assessment. It develops a spreadsheet tool for data collection, storage, and refinement, as well as estimation of the various components of the necessary economic accounts. It also illustrates the usefulness of the framework in the first assessment of the tradeoffs between enhanced security and changes in commercial activity in an urban area, with explicit attention to the role of spillover effects. The article also contributes a practical user interface to the model for emergency managers.     

Policing “Domestic Disturbances” in Small Towns and Rural Communities: Implications for Officer and Victim Safety

Drawing on Canadian police data on homicide involving domestic dispute calls from 1960 to the present (n = 20), as well as on in‐depth interviews with police officers (n = 33) working in rural and remote communities, the authors reexamine the argument that police attendance at domestic disturbance calls can pose a special threat to officer safety. Although some scholarship suggests that purported risks have been overstated, the authors argue that location may be a critical factor in reducing or heightening not only risks to officers, but also to victims. Although intended as an exploratory work, situated within the context of cultural support for domestic violence in rural communities, the authors raise both interesting policy implications, as well as potential avenues for future research. En partant de données de la police canadienne sur les homicides impliquant des disputes familiales de 1960 à nos jours (n = 20), ainsi que sur des entrevues en profondeur avec des agents policiers (n = 33) travaillant dans des régions rurales et des communautés éloignées, les auteurs ré‐examinent l'argument voulant que les interventions policières lors d'appels liés à des problèmes domestiques posent un risque spécial pour les agents policiers. Même si certains spécialistes suggèrent que ces risques sont exagérés, les auteurs affirment que le lieu pourrait être un facteur important par rapport au niveau de risque pour les agents policiers, ainsi que les victimes. Même s'il s'agit d'une recherche exploratoire, se situant dans le contexte du soutient culturel de la violence domestique dans les communautés rurales, les auteurs s'intéressent à la fois aux implications en termes de gestion et aux directions possibles en termes de recherches futures.     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

College students with congenital heart disease: A critical time for transition

As medical and surgical advances improve, more young adults with congenital heart disease (CHD) are attending college. This case study illustrates some of the issues that these young adults may face as they attend college and discusses the role that college health practitioners can play in easing that transition. Participants: A case of a male with CHD presenting to the college health clinic with a new onset headache. Methods: The authors discuss some of the unique challenges that college health practitioners may face when caring for students with CHD. In addition, they make recommendations on how best to care for these patients and how best to coordinate care with CHD students other care providers. Results: This student with a history of coarctation of the aorta presented with new onset headaches and was found to have high blood pressure. He was diagnosed with recurrent coarctation, underwent percutaneous treatment with stenting and quickly resumed classes. Conclusions: As more students with CHD enter college, college health providers will need to understand some of the health risks that CHD students face. In addition, understanding some of the optimal ways to coordinate care with CHD providers can ease the transition that CHD students face as they enter college.     

Testing an Integrative Contextual Career Development Model With Adolescents From High‐Poverty Urban Areas

Variations in the economic recovery rate across the United States have led to even greater chasms that separate the employed, unemployed, and underemployed (DeSilver, 2017 ). Therefore, understanding and supporting the career development of future generations is critical—especially for those who live outside the context of social privilege. The authors examined the applicability of the integrative contextual model of career development (ICM; Lapan, 2004 ) to a sample of 220 adolescents (129 boys, 91 girls) from a high‐poverty urban area. Results indicated that a canonical variate comprising foundational ICM skills (e.g., career exploration, goal setting) predicted a variate composed of ICM outcomes (e.g., self‐efficacy, vocational identity), thus supporting the usefulness of the ICM framework for this population. The skill of setting viable career goals was an especially strong predictor of outcomes. Implications for career counseling with adolescents living in high‐poverty urban areas and directions for future research are discussed.