Adaptation and validation of the Japanese version of the Gambling Urge Scale

In Japan, accurately assessing and targeting gambling urges is important for the treatment of gambling disorder because people are constantly exposed to external triggers that elicit gambling urges. However, a valid measure that assesses gambling urges has not been adequately established. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of the Japanese version of the Gambling Urge Scale (GUS-J), which is a well-known valid 6-item instrument in English-speaking countries. Two hundred and thirty-nine participants completed questionnaires, 86 of which met the criteria for a probable gambling disorder. As with the original GUS, the GUS-J was demonstrated to be a one-factor model that accounted for 63.82% of the total item variance, with all items demonstrating loadings of .40 or higher. With regard to reliability, the GUS-J showed good internal consistency (α = .88). Furthermore, validity based on evidence of relationships with other variables, especially convergent and concurrent validity of the GUS-J, were supported by several analyses that examined hypotheses based on previous findings. In conclusion, this study showed that the GUS-J has good psychometric properties as an assessment tool for gambling urges in Japanese people and it will be useful for future clinical practice and research.     

The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami: The highest casualties and largest reconstruction funds—Characteristics of major disasters and future challenges in developed countries

The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake was a disaster that led to the greatest number of casualties related to any form of natural disaster seen in developed countries since World War II. Furthermore, this earthquake occurred in an area where tsunami countermeasures had been prioritized. This disaster, therefore, led to the question “Is it impossible to reduce the number of victims of huge catastrophes, even in cases in which advanced disaster prevention measures have been taken?” Part of the reason this particular earthquake caused the largest number of deaths was because the tsunami that followed — which exceeded the “design load” of the seawall — hit the urban area. In addition, the tsunami, which also exceeded the “estimated loads” of the established disaster prevention plan, caused many “evacuation failures.” Another factor that contributed to the deaths was that the disaster prevention measures, up to that point, had relied primarily on the recognition that disasters could be prevented by the development of “hard,” or tangible, disaster prevention facilities in addition to “soft,” or intangible, measures, such as issuing warnings, without imposing space restrictions. Another characteristic of the Great East Japan Earthquake was that the largest reconstruction budget associated with any disaster in postwar Japan was compiled for it. Although the reconstruction project was over-specified for the disaster-afflicted area in terms of scale, cost, and duration of reconstruction, many unused land areas were also created in the new urban areas created during the reconstruction project. Furthermore, the reconstruction projects undertaken with the huge reconstruction budget were not based on the “choice to rebuild the lives” of the disaster-afflicted areas and the victims, but were rather implemented while simultaneously “marginalizing” said victims and areas as a whole. The over-specified reconstruction projects and the associated marginalization of disaster victims tend to exist in a mutually regulated relationship. Therefore, there are concerns about the future sustainability of the noted disaster-afflicted areas, which are already suffering from a severe population decline. Based on the previously presented discussion, it is possible to highlight various issues associated with disaster measures implemented in developed countries. First, regardless of how advanced disaster measures are, a “surge in disaster damage” can occur, which can lead to a “black swan” event. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate disaster prevention measures based on the assumption that such crises will occur in the future. Second, it is necessary for developed countries to determine how best to formulate reconstruction policies to avoid marginalizing disaster victims as well as to prevent over-specified reconstruction. In examining these two issues, the common problem that arises is how to conduct “risk assessment and enable its acceptance” most calmly immediately after a disaster and then formulate disaster prevention measures based on such assessment. Finally, the future of disaster sociology is detailed in this work. More specifically, in order for disaster sociology to escape its “marginal” status in sociology, it is necessary to consider “disaster” in the context of both a social structure and a social change—similar to how risk theory views the issue.     

Restricted mean survival time as a summary measure of time‐to‐event outcome

Many clinical research studies evaluate a time‐to‐event outcome, illustrate survival functions, and conventionally report estimated hazard ratios to express the magnitude of the treatment effect when comparing between groups. However, it may not be straightforward to interpret the hazard ratio clinically and statistically when the proportional hazards assumption is invalid. In some recent papers published in clinical journals, the use of restricted mean survival time (RMST) or τ ‐year mean survival time is discussed as one of the alternative summary measures for the time‐to‐event outcome. The RMST is defined as the expected value of time to event limited to a specific time point corresponding to the area under the survival curve up to the specific time point. This article summarizes the necessary information to conduct statistical analysis using the RMST, including the definition and statistical properties of the RMST, adjusted analysis methods, sample size calculation, information fraction for the RMST difference, and clinical and statistical meaning and interpretation. Additionally, we discuss how to set the specific time point to define the RMST from two main points of view. We also provide developed SAS codes to determine the sample size required to detect an expected RMST difference with appropriate power and reconstruct individual survival data to estimate an RMST reference value from a reported survival curve.     

Private provision of public goods between families

We consider a two-stage voluntary provision model where individuals in a family contribute to a pure public good and/or a household public good, and the parent makes private transfers to her own child. We show not only that Warr’s neutrality holds, regardless of the different timings of parent-to-child transfers, but also that there is a continuum of Nash equilibria which individuals’ contributions and parental transfers are indeterminate, although the allocation of each’s private consumption and total public good provision is uniquely determined. Furthermore, impure altruism or productivity difference in supplying public goods may not break our results above.     

Methodological standards for randomised controlled trials of interventions for preventing recurrence of child physical abuse and neglect

Despite the significant financial and human resources invested in child protection services (CPS), it is unknown whether these services are effective in preventing recurrence of child physical abuse and neglect. This paper reviews available studies evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions and identifies methodological limitations and factors that may contribute to these limitations. We searched databases to identify randomised controlled trials published in peer‐reviewed journals in the past five decades that evaluated interventions to reduce recurrence of physical abuse and neglect. We outlined ten methodological standards that are important for rigorous testing of psychosocial interventions and applied them in critically appraising identified studies. Thirteen randomised controlled trials were reviewed. This review identified methodological limitations (e.g. small sample size, lack of standardisations, contamination) that made it difficult to draw reliable conclusions as to the effectiveness of interventions. Field‐specific factors that contributed to methodological limitations (e.g. heterogeneity of sample, multiple family problems, psychosocial nature of interventions) were identified and recommendations were provided for improvement. It was concluded that it is possible to implement high‐quality trials that are ethical and feasible in the child welfare field. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ANALYZING INDUSTRY‐LEVEL VULNERABILITY BY PREDICTING FINANCIAL BANKRUPTCY

This study introduces a novel framework for building company bankruptcy models and a methodology for assessing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities. We consider the identification of bankruptcy as a classification problem and assume that bankruptcy criteria differ across industries. We build highly accurate industry bankruptcy models by constructing separate models for each industry. We also propose a method of analyzing the vulnerability of industrial economic activities in various countries and industries using new indicators we call “expected potential loss,” which we obtain using the predicted likelihood of bankruptcy and company information. (JEL G0, C0)     

Multi-household farming system in a northeastern Thai village: its transformation during economic development

Farming households with close kinship ties in northeast Thailand have long been practising joint utilization of farmland. They used this multihousehold farming method even more actively to cope with the macroeconomic development beginning in the 1960s. A 1989 survey of a village by the author found more than one-third of farmland under such communal use. However, the share decreased drastically by 2000, Economic growth has reached a point where farmers have to discard the communal system and introduce a market system of land utilization, such as sharecropping even between households of close kin.     

Inequality and education decisions in developing countries

In this paper we analyze the effect of inequality on school enrollment, preferred tax rate and expenditure per student in developing countries; when parents can choose between child labor, public schooling or private schooling. We present a model in which parents make schooling decisions for their children, weighing the utility benefit of having a child with formal public or private education versus the forgone income from child labor or household work. Parents vote over the preferred tax rate to finance freely provided public education. The utility benefit of an educated child is proportional to expenditure per student, so that there is congestion in public school. We find that when parents can send their children to work or to private school, high inequality leads to exit from public education at both ends of the income distribution. Thus high inequality reduces the support for public education, leading to a low tax rate and expenditure per student. Exit from public education results in both high child labor and a large fraction of students attending private school. In fact there is a threshold level of inequality above which there is no longer support for public education. In addition we explore the implications for the design of foreign aid. The results suggest that foreign aid policies should focus on promoting school attendance rather than increasing school resources, as the later policy might be offset by a reduction in the recipient country’s fiscal effort, with little impact on outcomes.      

Aging in rural Japan--limitations in the current social care policy

Owing to equal and increased opportunities for education and employment, today's trend in Japanese marriages is characterized by late and less frequent marriage. This paper discusses unavoidable diversity in rural families to point out the anticipated consequences of aging in rural areas and to discuss limitations in current public social care policies. Specifically, the averaged proportion of never-married and single persons at ages 45 to 49 and 50 to 54 in legally recognized depopulated cities, towns, and villages in Japan is calculated to illustrate the expected diversity in families in rural depopulated areas. It also illustrates the need for future studies to develop better social care policies for increasing numbers of single caregivers and single elders.     

Some families of group divisible designs

Generalizing methods of constructions of Hadamard group divisible designs due to Bush (1979), some new families of semi-regular or regular group divisible designs are produced. Furthermore, new nonisomorphic solutions for some known group divisible designs are given, together with useful group divisible designs not listed in Clatworthy (1973).