Pseudo-empirical Bayes estimation of small area means under a nested error linear regression model with functional measurement errors

Small area estimation is studied under a nested error linear regression model with area level covariate subject to measurement error. Ghosh and Sinha (2007) obtained a pseudo-Bayes (PB) predictor of a small area mean and a corresponding pseudo-empirical Bayes (PEB) predictor, using the sample means of the observed covariate values to estimate the true covariate values. In this paper, we first derive an efficient PB predictor by using all the available data to estimate true covariate values. We then obtain a corresponding PEB predictor and show that it is asymptotically “optimal”. In addition, we employ a jackknife method to estimate the mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of the PEB predictor. Finally, we report the results of a simulation study on the performance of our PEB predictor and associated jackknife MSPE estimator. Our results show that the proposed PEB predictor can lead to significant gain in efficiency over the previously proposed PEB predictor. Area level models are also studied.     

化学杂交剂GENESIS诱导四川小麦雄性不育的效果研究

报道了化杀剂GENESIS诱导四川小麦雄性不育的效果。结果表明 :喷施 1～ 3kg/hm2 浓度时 ,可使参试材料的不育率达 95%以上 ;浓度对不育率和异交结实率的影响差异显著 ;两种表面活性剂对不育率、异交结实率均无明显的影响 ,但M186 2对叶片有损伤 ;不同基因型的小麦材料对GENESIS的敏感性存在显著差异 ,异交结实率随剂量的增加呈下降趋势 ,高剂量时 ,柱头活力的时间较短 ;所有供试剂量对株高、抽穗期、成熟期等无明显的影响。     

中国医药高技术产业及其市场资源配置的态势分析

本文在论述了医药产业作为高技术产业所具有的高技术、高投入、高风险以及相对垄断性等特征之后,分析了我国医药市场的营销概况和医药企业的发展现状,对比了我国与发达国家的医药企业在经济规模、市场营销和研究开发（R&D）投入方面所存在的差距 , 提出我国在加入WTO后医药产业对所面临挑战的对策。     

PAGE银染分析限制性片段

本文介绍以非变性连续聚丙烯聚酰胺凝胶电泳（ＰＡＧＥ）分离ＤＮＡ限制性片段，以银染法显色，此方法灵敏度高，ｌｎｇＤＮＡ的条带显色清晰，而且操作简单，快速，适用于分析ＤＮＡ小片段。     

南丰县中药资源及其保护

南丰县主要中药资源有１３８种，隶属三大类，其中真菌药６科６属８种。植物药７０科１０８属１１７种；动物药１０科１３属１３种，文中提出了它们的保护及开发利用措施。     

Developments in sample survey theory: An appraisal

Recent developments in sample survey theory include the following topics: foundational aspects of inference, resampling methods for variance and confidence interval estimation, imputation for nonresponse and analysis of complex survey data. An overview and appraisal of some of these developments are presented.     

媒体对公共政策过程影响研究综述:“传统媒体”框架的失灵与“社交媒体”框架的缺失

媒体通过对政策渐进式的影响,不断促进社会形态的嬗变。面对变革,我国学界还未能从“传统媒体”的框架中摆脱“路径依赖”,传统媒体长期以来处于行政隶属地位,使得其他利益诉求难以在传统媒体上发声;而“社交媒体”的兴起又进一步分化了“传统媒体”对公共政策过程的影响力。“运动式”的媒介公共政策动员手段导致意见的撕裂,地方“传统媒体”一片叫好,“社交媒体”不乏争议。这是因为我国还未形成系统的“社交媒体”的公共政策过程影响管理机制,主要表现在以下几个方面:未能给相关管理部门提供足够的社交媒体治理经验,缺乏社交媒体对公共政策过程从“问题产生”到“效果评估”各阶段影响方式和作用的详尽分析,未建立起与社交媒体对应的政策过程传播管理框架,社交媒体的管理仍停留在“消极管理”阶段,缺少“积极管理”机制。文章试从传播学、公共政策过程理论出发,利用框架分析与对比研究的方法,综述当前“传统媒体”与“社交媒体”对公共政策过程影响存在的差异因素、国内“传统媒体”影响公共政策过程框架失灵的原因以及“社交媒体”框架对公共政策过程影响研究的缺失。     

浅析宋代养老制度的借鉴意义

老龄化现象是我国当前社会发展存在的一个重要问题。自2000年我国进入老龄化社会以后,随着出生率的逐渐下降和我国人口寿命的逐渐增长,老年人口将占据我国人口的较大比重,人口老龄化将成为我国当前社会发展的一个普遍趋势。因此,如何应对老龄化问题,发展我国养老事业是一个非常值得讨论的问题。早在宋代,我国已经出现有关养老的福利制度,并且有着可以借鉴的内容。文章将通过参考宋代养老制度,为我国当今社会养老事业的发展提供借鉴与参考。     

A discrete probability problem in card shuffling

Abstract

There are n cards serially numbered from 1 to n. The cards are shuffled and placed in a line one after the other on top of a table with faces up. The numbers on the faces are read from left to right. If there are consecutive numbers in increasing order of magnitude the corresponding cards are merged into one. After the merger, the cards are numbered serially from one to whatever the number of cards we now have. The cards are shuffled and placed in a line one after another on top of the table with faces up. The process continues until we have only one card left. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic recurrence relation approach to obtain the mean, variance, and distribution of the number of shuffles needed. A Markov chain formulation and its properties are discussed in the paper as well.