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91.
Xiaoyu Xiong Václav Šmídl Maurizio Filippone 《Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation》2017,87(8):1644-1665
In applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. This is normally done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which require repeated expensive calculations involving the marginal likelihood. Motivated by the desire to avoid the inefficiencies of MCMC algorithms rejecting a considerable amount of expensive proposals, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). In particular, this paper studies the application of AMIS for GPs in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes a novel pseudo-marginal-based AMIS algorithm for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios. 相似文献
92.
Šárka Hudecová Marie Hušková Simos G. Meintanis 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2017,44(4):843-865
We propose methods for detecting structural changes in time series with discrete‐valued observations. The detector statistics come in familiar L2‐type formulations incorporating the empirical probability generating function. Special emphasis is given to the popular models of integer autoregression and Poisson autoregression. For both models, we study mainly structural changes due to a change in distribution, but we also comment for the classical problem of parameter change. The asymptotic properties of the proposed test statistics are studied under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. A Monte Carlo power study on bootstrap versions of the new methods is also included along with a real data example. 相似文献
93.
We address the issue of model selection in beta regressions with varying dispersion. The model consists of two submodels, namely: for the mean and for the dispersion. Our focus is on the selection of the covariates for each submodel. Our Monte Carlo evidence reveals that the joint selection of covariates for the two submodels is not accurate in finite samples. We introduce two new model selection criteria that explicitly account for varying dispersion and propose a fast two step model selection scheme which is considerably more accurate and is computationally less costly than usual joint model selection. Monte Carlo evidence is presented and discussed. We also present the results of an empirical application. 相似文献
94.
In this article, two new powerful tests for cointegration are proposed. The general idea is based on an intuitively appealing extension of the traditional, rather restrictive cointegration concept. In this article, we allow for a nonlinear, but most importantly a different, asymmetric convergence process to account for negative and positive changes in our cointegration approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations we verify, that the estimated size of the first test depends on the unknown value of a signal-to-noise ratio q. However, our second test—which is based on the original ideas of Kanioura and Turner—is more successful and robust in the sense that it works in all of the different evaluated situations. Furthermore it is shown to be more powerful than the traditional residual based Enders and Siklos method. The new optimal test is also applied in an empirical example in order to test for potential nonlinear asymmetric price transmission effects on the Swedish power market. We find that there is a higher propensity for power retailers to rapidly and systematically increase their retail electricity prices subsequent to increases in Nordpool's wholesale prices, than there is for them to reduce their prices subsequent to a drop in wholesale spot prices. 相似文献
95.
In this article, L-moments, LQ-moments and TL-moments of the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme-value distributions are derived up to the fourth order. The first three L-, LQ- and TL-moments are used to obtain estimators of their parameters. Performing a simulation study, high-quantile estimates based on L-, LQ-, and TL-moments are compared to the maximum likelihood estimate with respect to their sample mean squared error. This consists of identifying an optimal combination of parameters α and p both considered in the range [0, 0.5] for estimating quantiles by LQ-moments. The results show L-moment and maximum likelihood methods outperform other methods. 相似文献
96.
Fiducial inference has been gaining presence recently and it is the intention of the present article to look at the notion of fiducial generators; meaning procedures to simulate parameter values that in some sense correspond to simulations from some implicit fiducial distribution. It is well known that when the distribution has group structure, stemming from the natural pivotal associated, a fiducial may be obtained. It is in the non group distributions that there appears to be still room for finding a fiducial distribution. Recently some general procedures have been proposed for dealing with generalized fiducials, but these depend on certain choices for a structural equation or a fiducial equation, as in Hannig (2009) or Taraldsen and Lindqvist (2013), respectively. A brief presentation is made of an earlier approach to fiducial inference for multivariate parameters, as in Brillinger (1962), and the implied fiducial generator introduced in Engen and Lillegård (1997), trying to connect them. Three interesting non group distributions are seen; two of them, the truncated exponential and the two-parameter gamma, already reported in literature. A third non group distribution is analyzed; the inverse Gaussian, connecting the fiducial that results following Brillinger (1962), with a result pertaining confidence limits for the shape parameter in Hsieh (1990). In the three cases, comparisons are made with the Bayesian posteriors that have been known to be close numerically. Some discussion is made on the issue of singularities of the fiducial density and its connection with densities that do not integrate to unity. As to the case of discrete observables, some comments are made for the Bernoulli distribution, only. 相似文献
97.
Zdeněk Hlávka Marie Hušková Claudia Kirch Simos G. Meintanis 《Econometric Reviews》2017,36(4):468-492
We develop testing procedures which detect if the observed time series is a martingale difference sequence. Furthermore, tests are developed that detect change–points in the conditional expectation of the series given its past. The test statistics are formulated following the approach of Fourier–type conditional expectations first proposed by Bierens (1982) and have the advantage of computational simplicity. The limit behavior of the test statistics is investigated under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. Since the asymptotic null distribution contains unknown parameters, a bootstrap procedure is proposed in order to actually perform the test. The performance of the bootstrap version of the test is compared in finite samples with other methods for the same problem. A real–data application is also included. 相似文献
98.
Kamila Dvořáková Moé Kishida Jacinda Li Steriani Elavsky Patricia C. Broderick Mark R. Agrusti 《Journal of American college health : J of ACH》2017,65(4):259-267
Objective: Given the importance of developmental transitions on young adults' lives and the high rates of mental health issues among U.S. college students, first-year college students can be particularly vulnerable to stress and adversity. This pilot study evaluated the effectiveness and feasibility of mindfulness training aiming to promote first-year college students' health and wellbeing. Participants: 109 freshmen were recruited from residential halls (50% Caucasian, 66% female). Data collection was completed in November 2014. Methods: A randomized control trial was conducted utilizing the Learning to BREATHE (L2B) program, a universal mindfulness program adapted to match the developmental tasks of college transition. Results: Participation in the pilot intervention was associated with significant increase in students' life satisfaction, and significant decrease in depression and anxiety. Marginally significant decrease was found for sleep issues and alcohol consequences. Conclusions: Mindfulness-based programs may be an effective strategy to enhance a healthy transition into college. 相似文献
99.
P. González-Torre S. Lozano B. Adenso-Díaz 《Voluntas: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations》2017,28(2):822-838
Hundreds of thousands of people in Europe are daily receiving food, thanks to local food banks, run basically by volunteers who collect donations and distribute them to organizations. In this paper, data from a sample of food banks working in 13 European countries are analysed using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), trying to learn about their profiles and find some clues about the efficiency of their operations, comparing them according to variables such as the number of volunteers and permanent staff, the tonnage of food delivered and the number of people served. Significant inefficiencies were found in the sector as a result of high performance of some food banks, thus setting a high level standard of operational efficiency. Some additional results regarding food bank sizes and performance are presented. 相似文献
100.
Mercedes López-Sáez David Lois Itziar Fernández José-Luis Martínez-Rubio 《Revista de Psicología Social》2014,29(2):371-399
The goal of this study is to analyse the differences in attitudes towards habitual modes of transportation among users of public and private transportation. The explanatory capacity of attitudes when determining the mode choice, along with the structural and sociodemographic factors, are also verified. The study was performed in three Spanish cities with 742 participants. The results revealed that cars are better rated than public modes of transportation in the attributes associated with immediate advantages (i.e., speed and availability) and convenience. Subways are highly rated in both immediate and deferred advantages (environment, safety, cost and health). Buses are the mode rated the lowest of the three. Using logistic regression, it was verified that the variance explained by a model that includes attitudes (R2 = .639) is higher than the variance explained by a model based solely on variables related to infrastructures (R2 = .489). The discussion of these results includes proposals aimed at decreasing car use. 相似文献