Racial/ethnic and socio‐economic biases in child maltreatment severity assessment in Spanish child protection services caseworkers

Evidence from several countries has shown the over‐representation of racial/ethnic minority groups in child protection services (CPS). The objective of the present study was to explore whether racial/ethnic and socio‐economic biases influence Spanish CPS caseworkers' judgements of the severity of child maltreatment. Moreover, the study attempted to explore the influence on these judgements of the use of structured instruments and professional experience. Two case vignettes of child maltreatment were presented to 405 CPS caseworkers and 169 students of social work and psychology. Family ethnic origin and income were manipulated in the vignettes. The findings showed no statistical evidence of biases related to family ethnic origin or socio‐economic status (SES) in Spanish CPS caseworkers' judgements of maltreatment severity. Biases related to family SES were found for students for the vignettes of physical abuse. CPS caseworkers and students who did not use a structured instrument to assess maltreatment severity tended to underestimate the severity for the vignettes of parental incapacity to control child/adolescent behaviour and to overestimate it for the vignettes of physical abuse. CPS caseworkers who used a structured instrument showed higher percentages of accuracy and inter‐rater agreement, supporting the relevance of structured tools in reducing potential caseworkers' biases.     

Copulas related to piecewise monotone functions of the interval and associated processes

In this work, we derive the copulas related to vectors obtained from the so-called chaotic stochastic processes. These are defined by the iteration of certain piecewise monotone functions of the interval [0, 1] to some initial random variable. We study some of its properties and present some examples. Since often these types of copulas do not have closed formulas, we provide a general approximation method which converges uniformly to the true copula. Our results cover a wide class of processes, including the so-called Manneville–Pomeau processes. The general theory is applied to the parametric estimation in certain chaotic processes. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also presented.     

Reunion Patterns in the Still‐Face Paradigm as Predicted by Maternal Sensitivity and Dyadic Coordination

Previous studies have suggested that the reunion episode of the still‐face procedure has the potential to reveal the regulatory resources of the mother–infant dyad that appear to be predictive of future adaptation. Nevertheless, differences across dyads with respect to these resources have received little attention, as also have the factors that are responsible for such differences. This study addresses this gap in the literature by testing whether the dyad reunion patterns can be predicted by the mothers' sensitivity assessed 3 months earlier, and by the contingent degree of the matched states in the play episode. Three dyadic patterns were identified through cluster analysis, which were characterized by playful, neutrally matched, and disrupted interactions. Multinomial logistic regression shows that the mothers' sensitivity predicts membership to the playful group, and the matched states in the play episode predict membership to the neutrally matched and disrupted groups. These findings show that the vulnerability to disrupt an ongoing interaction after a temporary perturbation is seen for only some dyads; moreover, they support the view of early regulatory development as a multidetermined achievement. Overall, these findings have important theoretical implications related to the identification of early regulatory difficulties as precursors of later developmental outcomes.     

Ports modernization and its influence on trade unions

The restructuring of production resulting from the Port Modernization Law (Law 8.630/90) caused significant changes in work organization of Brazilian Ports. In the case of Mucuripe (Fortaleza, Ceará), in particular, the changes were very intense as Mucuripe is an old port that, before the Law, had labor regulation being governed by Trade Unions. This paper aims to present the perceptions of Union Representatives on the changes brought about by the Law on work organization in the port of Fortaleza, its influence in the organization and in the way the Unions deal with this new reality. Open and exploratory interviews were conducted with representatives of occasional labor workers registered in the Port of Fortaleza OGMO (Org?o Gestor de M?o de Obra, Labor Regulation Management). The analysis of the collected material in the interviews was based on the technique of content analysis proposed by Bardin (1979). Trade Unions have undergone a great loss of power and it has reflected in a relative inability to perform its function and to fight for the rights of the workers. The obvious Trade Unions weakness - a reduction of strikes and less unionized workers - reflects the dominating ideology of capital.     

Portuguese Scientists’ Migration: a study on the 2008 crisis aftermath

In the economic and social aftermath of the 2008 crisis there has been an important and growing new wave of highly qualified Portuguese emigration comprising scientists. No or very few public policies have been designed to reverse this phenomenon, risking the consequences of brain drain. International literature argues that professional reasons are central to scientists’ decision to migrate, even after the 2008 crisis. Spending some time in a foreign country to study, research, or teach, is perceived as a common step in an individual academic trajectory and an advantage for a successful professional career in academia. It is also encouraged by European Union policies. Twelve individual portraits of Portuguese scientists living in central Europe reveal how important other factors are to the migration decision‐making process. These factors include the economic crisis, student mobility programmes, and the current Portuguese scientific system revision.     

Social security privatisation: the lessons from the Chilean experience for other Latin American countries and the USA

The purpose of this article is to analyse the economic and social implications of the privatisation of social security in Chile and to draw some lessons from the Chilean experience. The focus of the analysis is on the costs and benefits of the privatised system and its impact on social equity. Thus, the main section of the article is devoted to the analysis of the 20-year-old Chilean experience. This section is followed by a discussion of privatisation in other Latin American countries and the impact that World Bank's policies have had on the region. The last section looks at the lessons for the United States and argues against the establishment of a partially private plan in the USA.     

Increased risk of emergency department presentations for bronchiolitis in infants exposed to air pollution

Air pollution has been linked to an increased risk of several respiratory diseases in children, especially respiratory tract infections. The present study aims to evaluate the association between pediatric emergency department (PED) presentations for bronchiolitis and air pollution. PED presentations due to bronchiolitis in children aged less than 1 year were retrospectively collected from 2007 to 2018 in Padova, Italy, together with daily environmental data. A conditional logistic regression based on a time-stratified case-crossover design was performed to evaluate the association between PED presentations and exposure to NO₂, PM2.5, and PM10. Models were adjusted for temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and public holidays. Delayed effects in time were evaluated using distributed lag non-linear models. Odds ratio for lagged exposure from 0 to 14 days were obtained. Overall, 2251 children presented to the PED for bronchiolitis. Infants’ exposure to higher concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in the 5 days before the presentation to the PED increased the risk of accessing the PED by more than 10%, whereas high concentrations of NO₂ between 2 and 12 days before the PED presentation were associated with an increased risk of up to 30%. The association between pollutants and infants who required hospitalization was even greater. A cumulative effect of NO₂ among the 2 weeks preceding the presentation was also observed. In summary, PM and NO₂ concentrations are associated with PED presentations and hospitalizations for bronchiolitis. Exposure of infants to air pollution could damage the respiratory tract mucosa, facilitating viral infections and exacerbating symptoms.     

A semiparametric Bayesian approach to extreme value estimation

This paper is concerned with extreme value density estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) beyond a given threshold is combined with a nonparametric estimation approach below the threshold. This semiparametric setup is shown to generalize a few existing approaches and enables density estimation over the complete sample space. Estimation is performed via the Bayesian paradigm, which helps identify model components. Estimation of all model parameters, including the threshold and higher quantiles, and prediction for future observations is provided. Simulation studies suggest a few useful guidelines to evaluate the relevance of the proposed procedures. They also provide empirical evidence about the improvement of the proposed methodology over existing approaches. Models are then applied to environmental data sets. The paper is concluded with a few directions for future work.     

Small area estimation for longitudinal surveys

Over the last few years many studies have been carried out in Italy to identify reliable small area labour force indicators. Considering the rotated sample design of the Italian Labour Force Survey, the aim of this work is to derive a small area estimator which borrows strength from individual temporal correlation, as well as from related areas. Two small area estimators are derived as extensions of an estimation strategies proposed by Fuller (1990) for partial overlap samples. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the gain in efficiency provided by our solutions. Results obtained for different levels of autocorrelation between repeated measurements on the same outcome and different population settings show that these estimators are always more reliable than the traditional composite one, and in some circumstances they are extremely advantageous.The present paper is financially supported by Murst-Cofin (2001) Lutilizzo di informazioni di tipo amministrativo nella stima per piccole aree e per sottoinsiemi della popolazione (National Coordinator Prof. Carlo Filippucci).