AN EVALUATION OF FORECAST ERROR IN MASTER PRODUCTION SCHEDULING FOR MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING SYSTEMS.

Typical forecast-error measures such as mean squared error, mean absolute deviation and bias generally are accepted indicators of forecasting performance. However, the eventual cost impact of forecast errors on system performance and the degree to which cost consequences are explained by typical error measures have not been studied thoroughly. The present paper demonstrates that these typical error measures often are not good predictors of cost consequences in material requirements planning (MRP) settings. MRP systems rely directly on the master production schedule (MPS) to specify gross requirements. These MRP environments receive forecast errors indirectly when the errors create inaccuracies in the MPS. Our study results suggest that within MRP environments the predictive capabilities of forecast-error measures are contingent on the lot-sizing rule and the product components structure When forecast errors and MRP system costs are coanalyzed, bias emerges as having reasonable predictive ability. In further investigations of bias, loss functions are evaluated to explain the MRP cost consequences of forecast errors. Estimating the loss functions of forecast errors through regression analysis demonstrates the superiority of loss functions as measures over typical forecast error measures in the MPS.     

Clients' relational conceptions of conjoint couple and family therapy quality: a grounded formal theory

Based upon a qualitative metasynthesis of 49 articles centered on clients' experiences of their conjoint couple and family therapy, the investigators constructed a grounded formal theory of Clients' Relational Conceptions of Conjoint Couple and Family Therapy Quality. The theory suggests from pretherapy conceptions to posttherapy reflections, clients' perceptions of conjoint couple and family therapy quality appear to consist of clients' constructed meanings regarding a series of interrelated relationships between clients and their therapists and therapy environments, between clients and themselves, between clients and other family members, and between process and outcome both inside and outside therapy. Within and across these relationships, clients appear to focus on expectations, connections, balance, and change when evaluating the quality of their clinical experiences. Based upon this theory, the investigators recommend that researchers continue to explore this clinical phenomenon and that therapists regularly seek clients' conceptions of quality in therapy.     

Back to the future? From pragmatic approaches in the social sciences to the development of the patchwork theory

The debate on the function of the social sciences in complex societies, and more generally of the role of knowledge, leads necessarily to a discussion on pragmatism. The gap between theoretical approaches and empirical research still exists and has even widened, in part as a result of the use and abuse of social science knowledge in politics and by the media. However, the academic system is equally to blame for this. Mutual ignorance and scholastic fights are barriers against openness, creative and imaginary thinking. The structures and the practices of the academic system reinforce this trend. Pragmatism aims at overcoming these cleavages by looking at commonalities between different approaches rather than by disputing their validity. It aims at a comprehensive understanding of the process of knowledge production and at the productive use of results. Defining itself in this tradition, the patchwork theory goes beyond the traditional pragmatic approaches: it catches part of the reality of social phenomena from a certain perspective that allows for an overview without having the full picture. Methodologicall, the approach guided by patchwork theory emphasizes the relevance of stakeholders’ knowledge and citizen science, and calls for public participation and democratic access to the production and use of knowledge in a discursive manner.     

Statistical Engineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

Several authors, including the American Statistical Association (ASA) guidelines for undergraduate statistics education (American Statistical Association Undergraduate Guidelines Workgroup) American Statistical Association Undergraduate Guidelines Workgroup (2014), “2014 Curriculum Guidelines for Undergraduate Programs in Statistical Science,” Alexandria, VA: American Statistical Asociation. Available at http://www.amstat.org/education/curriculumguidelines.cfm [Google Scholar], have noted the challenges facing statisticians when attacking large, complex, and unstructured problems, as opposed to well-defined textbook problems. Clearly, the standard paradigm of selecting the one “correct” statistical method for such problems is not sufficient; a new paradigm is needed. Statistical engineering has been proposed as a discipline that can provide a viable paradigm to attack such problems, used in conjunction with sound statistical science. Of course, to develop as a true discipline, statistical engineering must be clearly defined and articulated. Further, a well-developed underlying theory is needed, one that would prove helpful in addressing such large, complex, and unstructured problems. The purpose of this expository article is to more clearly articulate the current state of statistical engineering, and make a case for why it merits further study by the profession as a means of addressing such problems. We conclude with a “call to action.”     

NATION-STATES CONFRONT THE GLOBAL: Discourses of Indigenous Rights in Fiji and Tanzania

How do global issue constructions serve as resources for actors engaged in domestic political contention, and what does the appropriation of global ideas by domestic actors imply about the spread of global culture? To contribute to knowledge about conflict‐based diffusion of global ideas, we examine the histories of global constructions of indigenous rights and national debates about indigenous rights in Fiji and Tanzania. While global models of indigenous rights emphasize self‐determination for nondominant, culturally distinct groups at risk from the nation‐state, advocates for indigenization policies in Fiji and Tanzania have argued for state policies to entrench political and economic rights for majority or near‐majority groups that were well integrated into the nation‐state. Although transnationally connected indigenous rights organizations have a greater presence in Tanzania than in Fiji, actors in Fiji remain more engaged with changes in international indigenous rights discourse than their counterparts in Tanzania. This difference reflects variations in the leverage global culture offered in the two cases because of its externality to national political debates. In Fiji, actors appropriated global culture as a means to internationalize a domestic dispute, while in Tanzania the impetus for indigenization came from global economic pressures. Our findings imply that conflict‐based diffusion concentrates agency with respect to the use of global legal discourses in domestic actors rather than the globally connected actors and experts who carry global culture in consensus‐based diffusion.     

Donald R. Cressey: An Intellectual Portrait of a Criminologist

The late Donald R. Cressey (1919–1987) was a central figure in twentieth century American criminology. A distinctive feature of criminology since the 1930s has been the dominance of sociology among the various disciplines studying crime and criminal justice. Cressey's contributions to the sociology of crime and delinquency came from his teaching, scholarship, and involvement in criminal justice policy. He was best known for his carrying on the tradition of Edwin Sutherland in taking Sutherland's criminology textbook through many revised editions after Sutherland's passing and for his pioneering, innovative contributions to the study of organized crime, prisons, and criminological theory. He also made central and lasting contributions to the sociology of criminal law and white collar crime. His ideas in each of these areas are reviewed to produce a portrait or profile of what he added to criminology, to remind those who know it already and to introduce it to those who may not.