A SARIMAX coupled modelling applied to individual load curves intraday forecasting

A dynamic coupled modelling is investigated to take temperature into account in the individual energy consumption forecasting. The objective is both to avoid the inherent complexity of exhaustive SARIMAX models and to take advantage of the usual linear relation between energy consumption and temperature for thermosensitive customers. We first recall some issues related to individual load curves forecasting. Then, we propose and study the properties of a dynamic coupled modelling taking temperature into account as an exogenous contribution and its application to the intraday prediction of energy consumption. Finally, these theoretical results are illustrated on a real individual load curve. The authors discuss the relevance of such an approach and anticipate that it could form a substantial alternative to the commonly used methods for energy consumption forecasting of individual customers.     

Attachment Insecurities and Women's Sexual Function and Satisfaction: The Mediating Roles of Sexual Self-Esteem,Sexual Anxiety,and Sexual Assertiveness

We examined the potential role of three mediators—sexual self-esteem, sexual anxiety, and sexual assertiveness—of the association between romantic attachment insecurities (anxiety and avoidance) and two aspects of women's sexual functioning: sexual function and sexual satisfaction. A sample of 556 women aged 18 to 30 agreed to complete an online series of validated questionnaires assessing attachment insecurities and several aspects of sexual functioning. Lower sexual self-esteem and higher sexual anxiety mediated the associations between attachment anxiety and lower sexual function and satisfaction. Lower sexual self-esteem and higher sexual anxiety also partially mediated the links between attachment-related avoidance and the two sexual functioning variables. Sexual assertiveness, however, did not mediate these associations. A significant interaction between attachment anxiety and avoidance was also found to predict sexual satisfaction, with women high in avoidance and low in anxiety being the least satisfied. Results are discussed in terms of theoretical and clinical implications.     

Calculating the migration industries: knowing the successful expatriate in the Global Mobility Industry

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that we need to pay more theoretical attention to the ways in which migration industries come into being, how they produce a need for themselves within the management of migration processes. Using the example of the Global Mobility Industry (GMI), an industry that supports expatriate migration, the paper suggests that we can theorise migration industries as being part of the knowledge economy. It shows how the GMI is produced around the practices of knowing the successful expatriate which work to ‘calculate’ what expatriate migration should look like. In doing so, the paper shows the way in which the calculative practice of compartmentalisation, in producing knowledge about expatriate migration, produces a need for the GMI. This illustrates the importance of widening our understanding of the economy when researching the migration industries.     

Gender and Infrastructure in the World Bank

This article conducts a critical analysis of the World Bank's current infrastructure strategy from a feminist perspective, arguing that failures to define gender and set meaningful targets and indicators have meant that gender has not been integrated into the implementation of infrastructure projects. It sets out three limitations to the Bank's approach to gender and infrastructure: lack of awareness of gender in the four sectors that comprise infrastructure; the Bank's narrow approach to gender equality and women's empowerment; and the failure of the Bank to mainstream gender in its current infrastructure strategy.     

From communication to co‐operation: Reconceptualizing social workers' engagement with children

Communicating and engaging with children is a foundational component of child care social work practice, but all too frequently, in the wake of serious incidents, it is the focus of criticism. Drawing on findings from a large‐scale ESRC‐funded research project conducted in the four U.K. nations, this paper explores, through a psychosocial analytic lens, how social workers anticipate, enact and reflect on their encounters with both children and their families. Close analysis of what social workers said about their practice alongside what they were observed to do in practice revealed perceptions, patterns and processes of communication that, first, minimize emotions and the complexity of the professional task and second, overly privilege verbal interaction. Drawing on Sennett's (2012) ideas this paper offers a reconceptualisation of this professional task, from a communicative to a co‐operative one. It affords and creates a space in which social workers can develop more attuned communicative practices that include rituals, gestures and the minimal use of force. The theoretical insights and evidence‐informed practice recommendations arising from this research have conceptual significance for the social work discipline and practical significance for the child care social work profession, across national and international contexts.     

Buzzing on top: Linking wild bee diversity,abundance and traits with green roof qualities

Green roofs are potentially valuable habitats for plants and animals in urban areas. Wild bees are important pollinators for crops and wild plants and may be enhanced by anthropogenic structures, but little is known about wild bees on green roofs in cities. This study investigates the effects of green roof qualities (floral resources, substrate character and depth, roof height and age) on wild bee diversity, abundance and traits (nesting type, sociality, pollen specialisation, body size) on green roofs in Vienna. Nine green roofs were sampled monthly between March and September 2014 by a semi quantitative approach. Wild bees were collected in pre-defined sub-areas for the same amount of time and floral resources were recorded. Over all green roofs, 992 individuals belonging to 90 wild bee species were observed. Wild bee diversity and abundance was strongly positively affected by increasing forage availability and fine substrates. Wild bees on roofs were characteristically solitary, polylectic and 8.3–11.2 mm. Regarding nesting type, the percentage of above-ground nesting bees was higher compared to the common species composition in Middle Europe. Ground-nesting wild bees were mainly eusocial, smaller (6.4–9.6 mm) and positively affected by roofs with fine substrates. During June, when forage availability by wildflowers on roofs was “low” (5–15% flower coverage), flowering Sedum species were an important forage resource. We conclude that wild bee diversity and abundance on green roofs are enhanced by floral resources. Furthermore, the installations of areas with finer and deeper substrates benefit ground nesting and eusocial wild bees.     

What Would You Sacrifice? Access to Top Management and the Work–life Balance

This article is based on a current research, combining quantitative (human resources figures and statistics) and qualitative data (60 interviews with career managers, top managers and high potential talents, both men and women), conducted in a major French utility company on the subject of diversity and more specifically on the issue of women's access to top management positions. The main purpose of this research is to understand the difficulties women may encounter in the course of their occupational career linked to organizational aspects, including the ‘glass ceiling’ processes, informal norms related to management positions (such as time and mobility constraints) and social and cultural representations attached to leadership. The other perspective of this research focuses on the different strategies women and men build either to conform to the organizational norms or bypass them. The issue of work–life balance are therefore addressed both from a corporate/organizational standpoint and an individual and family perspective.     

Learning Stimulus‐Location Associations in 8‐ and 11‐Month‐Old Infants: Multimodal Versus Unimodal Information

Research on the influence of multimodal information on infants' learning is inconclusive. While one line of research finds that multimodal input has a negative effect on learning, another finds positive effects. The present study aims to shed some new light on this discussion by studying the influence of multimodal information and accompanying stimulus complexity on the learning process. We assessed the influence of multimodal input on the trial‐by‐trial learning of 8‐ and 11‐month‐old infants. Using an anticipatory eye movement paradigm, we measured how infants learn to anticipate the correct stimulus–location associations when exposed to visual‐only, auditory‐only (unimodal), or auditory and visual (multimodal) information. Our results show that infants in both the multimodal and visual‐only conditions learned the stimulus–location associations. Although infants in the visual‐only condition appeared to learn in fewer trials, infants in the multimodal condition showed better anticipating behavior: as a group, they had a higher chance of anticipating correctly on more consecutive trials than infants in the visual‐only condition. These findings suggest that effects of multimodal information on infant learning operate chiefly through effects on infants' attention.     

Consequences of Casual Sex Relationships and Experiences on Adolescents’ Psychological Well-Being: A Prospective Study

Casual sexual relationships and experiences (CSREs) are still considered to be detrimental to the psychological well-being of youth even though findings remain inconclusive. Most studies have focused on emerging adulthood. Using a prospective design based on a representative sample of high school students in the province of Québec, we measured sexually active adolescents’ (N = 2,304) psychological well-being six months after engaging in these relationships while controlling for prior well-being. We analyzed two forms of CSREs, friends with benefits (FWB) and one-night stand (ONS) relationships, as well as levels of sexual intimacy. The results show that CSREs had a small impact (small effect sizes) on subsequent psychological well-being, especially among girls; FWB relationships involving penetrative contact increased girls’ psychological distress and both their alcohol and drug consumption. ONSs including sexual touching increased girls’ psychological distress and their drug use. None of the CSREs influenced boys’ psychological well-being. The findings underscored the importance of using caution when arguing that CSREs are detrimental or harmless to the psychological well-being of adolescents. The results also highlight the importance of taking into account gender and forms of CSREs in prevention and health interventions.