Has the World Really Survived the Population Bomb? (Commentary on “How the World Survived the Population Bomb: Lessons From 50 Years of Extraordinary Demographic History”)

In his PAA presidential address and corresponding article in Demography, David Lam (Demography 48:1231–1262, 2011) documented the extraordinary progress of humankind—vis-à-vis poverty alleviation, increased schooling, and reductions in mortality and fertility—since 1960 and noted that he expects further improvements by 2050. However, although Lam briefly covered the problems of global warming and pollution, he did not address several other major environmental problems that are closely related to the rapid human population growth in recent decades and to the progress he described. This commentary highlights some of these problems to provide a more balanced perspective on the situation of the world. Specifically, humans currently are using resources at an unsustainable level. Groundwater depletion and overuse of river water are major problems on multiple continents. Fossil fuel resources and several minerals are being depleted. Other major problems include deforestation, with the annual forest clearing globally estimated to be an area the size of New York State; and species extinction, with rates estimated to be 100 to 1,000 times higher than background rates. Principles of ecological economics are presented that allow an integration of ecology and economic development and better potential for preservation of the world for future generations.     

Assessing parenting capacity in child protection: towards a knowledge‐based model

The assessment of parenting capacity continues to engender public concern in cases of suspected harm to children. This paper outlines a model for approaching this task based on the application of three key domains of knowledge in social work relating to facts, theory and practice wisdom. The McMaster Model of Family Assessment is identified out of this process and reworked to give it a sharper focus on parenting roles and responsibilities. Seven formative dimensions of parenting are then elicited and combined with an analytical process of identifying strengths, concerns, prospects for growth and impact on child outcomes. The resulting assessment framework, it is argued, adds rigour to professional judgements about parenting capacity and enhances formulations on risk in child protection.     

Are People Emotionally Predisposed to Experience Lower Quality of Life? The Impact of Negative Affectivity on Quality of Life in Patients Recovering from Cardiac Surgery

Negative affectivity has been defined as a predisposition to experience intense states of negative emotions. As a trait concept it is a dimension that reflects stable and pervasive differences in negative mood and self-concept. There has been systematic evidence linking negative affectivity to anxiety, depression, psychosomatic complaints, pain symptoms, and adherence to life style changes. Several studies have demonstrated a link between negative affectivity and quality of life. However, as the majority of these studies have been cross-sectional, it has been difficult to establish causal relations between quality of life and negative affect. The present study is a longitudinal investigation of negative affectivity and quality of life in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (N = 157). Negative affectivity and quality of life were assessed with the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and with the MacNew Quality of Life after Myocardial Infarction Questionnaire (MacNew QLMI) on admission day, one, and six months after the operation. Causal and reciprocal relationships were tested using a cross-lagged designs analysis via structural equation modeling. Results indicated that the causal model represented the best fit to the data. Results of the study are discussed in terms of the clinical importance of identifying patients at risk of experiencing severe restrictions in their quality of life.     

Value-at-risk support vector machine: stability to outliers

A support vector machine (SVM) stable to data outliers is proposed in three closely related formulations, and relationships between those formulations are established. The SVM is based on the value-at-risk (VaR) measure, which discards a specified percentage of data viewed as outliers (extreme samples), and is referred to as \(\mathrm{VaR}\) -SVM. Computational experiments show that compared to the \(\nu \) -SVM, the VaR-SVM has a superior out-of-sample performance on datasets with outliers.     

Integrating resilience into floodplain restoration

This paper explores the role of geographic prioritization as a means of identifying lands that are especially well suited to restoration in the historical floodplain of western Oregon's Willamette River. The river and its floodplain have been extensively modified since 1850. As a result, the quantity and quality of river habitat have declined. The approach illustrated here explicitly links the potential for ecological benefits from restoration with the social and economic likelihood of restoration success. Using a consistent analytical framework, longitudinal patterns in selected biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics are quantified along the entire river length, from Eugene to Portland. Areas with high potential for ecological recovery and low socioeconomic constraints have the greatest potential for future restoration. Areas that combine low potential for ecological response with high demographic and economic costs are likely to be poor choices for restoration. Areas with high ecological potential and intermediate levels of socioeconomic constraints present intermediate opportunities for restoration. The paper identifies high priority locations for restoration, assuming the purposes of restoration are to increase river channel complexity, increase floodplain forest area, and increase natural water storage during floods. It concludes by discussing the role of visualizations in citizen involvement.     

Analytical closed-form solution for binary logit regression by categorical predictors

In contrast to the common belief that the logit model has no analytical presentation, it is possible to find such a solution in the case of categorical predictors. This paper shows that a binary logistic regression by categorical explanatory variables can be constructed in a closed-form solution. No special software and no iterative procedures of nonlinear estimation are needed to obtain a model with all its parameters and characteristics, including coefficients of regression, their standard errors and t-statistics, as well as the residual and null deviances. The derivation is performed for logistic models with one binary or categorical predictor, and several binary or categorical predictors. The analytical formulae can be used for arithmetical calculation of all the parameters of the logit regression. The explicit expressions for the characteristics of logit regression are convenient for the analysis and interpretation of the results of logistic modeling.     

A method from the ‘lifeworld’: some possibilities for person centred planning for children in care

This paper describes a method for working with children who are the subjects of care planning and review under the Children Act 1989. The person centred planning method, as it is termed, has been well established in working with adults with special needs but can be extrapolated to encounters with children. It focuses on three fundamental areas: relationship, meaning and narrative. In underscoring these areas, the method restrains the bureaucracy and experience of stigma that is often present for those residing in state care. On a wider plane, the paper argues that the method stands as a veritable example of Habermas's ideas concerning the application of communicative rationality and discursive democracy in social life.