When do Public Managers Imitate Each Other? Mimetic Decision Making in Contracting Decisions of Danish Municipalities

Using organizational new institutional theory, this paper explores a core mechanism underlying contracting decisions in public organizations. A central proposition of this branch of institutional theory is that uncertainty leads to organizational isomorphism. The present study investigates this proposition by asking: When does perceived uncertainty lead public managers to imitative behavior in contracting out decisions? Contrary to most previous studies, we apply an individual level approach and relate different types of perceived uncertainty of decision makers to mimetic decision making. We define mimetic decision making as when decision makers deliberately obtain information about other organizations in order to possibly imitate them. In a survey of Danish municipal managers facing important and complex contracting decisions, we test our hypotheses about three types of perceived uncertainty and mimetic decision making. The results show that technological uncertainty is strongly related to mimetic decision making among public managers. However, we do not find significant results for either volume uncertainty or performance uncertainty. The paper illustrates how uncertainty, through mimetic decision making, is connected to organizational isomorphism. It further highlights that future studies should pay attention to the multidimensionality of uncertainty and its consequences.     

Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical analyses of past forecast errors, or on a combination of the two. In this article, we develop and test prediction intervals based on empirical analyses of past forecast errors for counties in the United States. Using decennial census data from 1900 to 2000, we apply trend extrapolation techniques to develop a set of county population forecasts; calculate forecast errors by comparing forecasts to subsequent census counts; and use the distribution of errors to construct empirical prediction intervals. We find that empirically-based prediction intervals provide reasonably accurate predictions of the precision of population forecasts, but provide little guidance regarding their tendency to be too high or too low. We believe the construction of empirically-based prediction intervals will help users of small-area population forecasts measure and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in population forecasts and plan more effectively for the future.     

The managerial power approach: Is it testable?

Journal of Management and Governance - The central hypothesis of the managerial power approach (MPA) states that power is the main driver of executive compensation. The positive impact of power on...     

Kapitalmarktorientierte Unternehmensbewertung bei asymmetrischer Besteuerung von Soll- und Habenzinsen

Drukarczyk and Lobe argue that the value of a company depends on individual preferences for leveraged or unleveraged companies if debt and credit interest rates after personal taxes differ. Consequentially they derive two preference-dependent valuation formulas. Based on these results an increasing amount of literature proposing preference-dependent valuation formulas emerged. We claim that this has to be viewed critically. In order to show that even in a world of different debt and credit interest rates after personal taxes a market value can be determined we develop a new version of the Tax CAPM. Based on this model the market value of leveraged and unleveraged companies is derived. Finally we show that the corresponding valuation function significantly differs from the preference-dependent valuation formulas.     

Die Bedeutung der Zinsschranke

The German Corporate Tax Reform Act of 2008 requires an adjustment of classic valuation concepts because it limits interest deduction from taxable income depending on the operating performance of the company. By using time- and state-contingent discount rates in a risk-neutral valuation with predetermined debt levels, a theoretically sound valuation result is obtained. However, a modified APV-concept which assumes deterministic debt over the planning horizon and constant leverage in the terminal value phase also yields consistent valuation results when two types of tax shields with different levels of risk are distinguished.     

视觉现代化——现代艺术背后的人类视觉观念(1)

20世纪初所发生的“视觉现代化”(modernising vision)转向源于自19世纪以来传统的视觉概念所发生的深刻变化。它旨在将人们从过时的观看习惯中解放出来,视觉的本质不应主要被理解为给定可见世界的机械再现模式,而应该从根本上被理解为由文化构造的、具有历史多样性的感知数据的生产性过程。现代艺术试图通过艺术品本身来创造一种现代化的视觉形式,艺术作品被定义为实现视觉现代化的手段或工具,画家试图用艺术来表达一种新的视觉观——观看中充斥着时间的流动,而绝不仅是一个明确的视觉顺序的实现;观看不是一个视觉固定化过程,而是更加有意识地、集中地观察世界。从丢勒式的空间中心透视观到塞尚式的时间和空间相结合的多重透视观,后者更加强调了观者的参与和观看的过程,这种观看方式的变化也是人与世界关系的变化。视觉现代化的探讨在今天仍然具有重要的意义⁽²⁾。     

Rényi entropy of m-generalized order statistics

Abstract

Characterizing relations via Rényi entropy of m-generalized order statistics are considered along with examples and related stochastic orderings. Previous results for common order statistics are included.     

The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country's population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This "sending-country birth cohort" method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.     

Participatory Spaces of Mental Health Service User Organizations in the Post-deinstitutional Era: Mapping Roles and Challenges

By applying the concept of participatory spaces, this article maps and analyzes current research on mental health service user organizations (MHSUOs). We have analyzed research literature from 2006 to 2016 to examine how the role of and challenges facing MHSUOs are formulated in the post-deinstitutional era. The current situation is marked by MHSUOs parallel presence in invited, claimed and popular spaces for participation. The post-deinstitutional era is characterized by a shift in focus from gaining access to such participatory spaces, to critically examining the political opportunities available in these. We further argue that the dominance of psychiatry-specific spaces could prevent MHSUOs from fully exploring their potential for participation in broader social issues.