THE IMPORTANCE OF SECTORAL AND AGGREGATE SHOCKS IN BUSINESS CYCLES

The theoretical literature on business cycles proposes numerous causes for their occurrence. This paper attempts to measure the relative importance of aggregate, whether real or nominal, and sectoral factors in generating real economic fluctuations, as well as to identify economic variables that are correlated with the various factors. Empirical results indicate that both aggregate and industry-level factors are statistically significant in explaining variations in output with the aggregate factor being the most important. Some evidence is presented that links the aggregate factor with monetary variables.     

Limited relevance of the right not to know--reflections on a screening study

The right not to know personal health-related information has been included in prominent human rights documents and subsequently in national legislation since the middle of the 1990s. Apart from situations where another life is at stake, the right not to know has in these documents been formulated as if it should have precedence over other interests. This article argues against giving the right not to know such a prominent position. It does so by questioning the ethical relevance of the concept for both theoretical and empirical reasons. The main focus of the article is on empirical data from a prospective population screeningfor Type I diabetes. Data indicate that research participants are not as autonomous as is generally assumed by the defenders of the right not to know.     

Page's sequential procedure for change-point detection in time series regression

In a variety of different settings cumulative sum (CUSUM) procedures have been applied for the sequential detection of structural breaks in the parameters of stochastic models. Yet their performance depends strongly on the time of change and is best under early change scenarios. For later changes their finite sample behavior is rather questionable. We therefore propose modified CUSUM procedures for the detection of abrupt changes in the regression parameter of multiple time series regression models, that show a higher stability with respect to the time of change than ordinary CUSUM procedures. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and the consistency of the procedures are provided. In a simulation study it is shown that the proposed procedures behave well in finite samples. Finally the procedures are applied to a set of capital asset pricing data related to the Fama–French extension of the CAPM.     

The Active Audience? Gurus,Management Ideas and Consumer Variability

This study draws on an active audience perspective to develop a better understanding of mass audiences' attraction towards popular management ideas. It focuses on audience members' own experiences and, in particular, what audience activities actually play a role in shaping mass attraction, and how the deployment of these activities may vary. Analysing 65 in‐depth interviews with management practitioners in their role as audience members of guru seminars, the authors identify different key consumption activities, and explain how individual management practitioners may shift in consumption orientation throughout the communication process. This paper argues that such a broader and more dynamic understanding of consumption activity is essential in understanding the success and impact of management ideas, and opens several fruitful research directions.     

The Global Forum on Migration and Development as a venue of state socialisation: a stepping stone for multi-level migration governance?

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on the Global Forum on Migration and Development (GFMD) which has become one of the major global spaces for deliberations on migration but remains informal and non-binding. Drawing from literature on norm diffusion and state socialisation, it debates the role of the GFMD as a stepping stone for a more robust, multi-level and networked global migration governance by bringing together governments, global institutions, civil society and to a lesser degree the private sector. It is argued that the GFMD has the potential to socialise states in two ways that are conducive to establishing a multi-level global migration governance: First, states are exposed to discourses on migration as a truly global issue. The second way in which the GFMD process can socialise states is in the interaction with migrant civil society, thus potentially ‘blurring’ previously distant if not openly antagonistic relations. Since most states regard migration as one of their last ‘bastions of sovereignty’, the GFMD could provide a necessary first step as a trust-building measure. Providing participatory spaces and allowing agency for migrants and their organisations is not a mere optional feature but a crucial component for a truly multi-level and thus multi-stakeholder global migration governance.     

CHILDREN OF A (POLICY) REVOLUTION: THE INTRODUCTION OF UNIVERSAL CHILD CARE AND ITS EFFECT ON FERTILITY

What role does affordable and widely available public child care play for fertility? We exploit a major German reform generating large temporal and spatial variation in child care coverage for children under the age of three. Our precise and robust estimates on birth register data reveal that increases in public child care have significant positive effects on fertility. The fertility effects are more pronounced at the intensive than at the extensive margin, and are not driven by changes in the timing of births or selective migration. Our findings inform policy makers concerned about low fertility by suggesting that universal early child care holds the promise of being an effective means of increasing birth rates.     

Pricing of Full‐Service Repair Contracts with Learning,Optimized Maintenance,and Information Asymmetry

This article considers the optimal pricing of full‐service (FS) repair contracts by taking into account learning and maintenance efficiency effects, competition from service , and asymmetric information. We analyze on‐call service (OS) and FS contracts in a market where customers exhibit heterogeneous risk aversion. While the customers minimize their disutility over the equipment lifetime, the service provider maximizes expected profits arising from the portfolio of OS and FS contracts. We show that the optimal FS price depends inter alia on the customer's prior cost experience and on OS repair and maintenance costs. The optimal FS price is shown to increase as fewer OS customers are lost to competition, whereas improved repair learning enabled by FS reduces the optimal price. A numerical study based on data from a manufacturer of forklifts highlights the importance of learning in maintenance operations, which constitutes the key benefit of FS contracts; 81% of the customers select the FS option and are willing to pay an insurance premium of around 1.5% of total OS cost against volatility of repair costs.