Presenting Results from Model Based Studies to Decision-Makers: Can Sensitivity Analysis be a Defogging Agent?

The motivation of the present work is to provide an auxiliary tool for the decision-maker (DM) faced with predictive model uncertainty. The tool is especially suited for the allocation of R&Dresources. When taking decisions under uncertainties, making use of the output from mathematical or computational models, the DM might be helped if the uncertainty in model predictions be decomposed in a quantitative-rather than qualitativefashion, apportioning uncertainty according to source. This would allow optimal use of resources to reduce the imprecision in the prediction. For complex models, such a decomposition of the uncertainty into constituent elements could be impractical as such, due to the large number of parameters involved. If instead parameters could be grouped into logical subsets, then the analysis could be more useful, also because the decision maker might likely have different perceptions (and degrees of acceptance) for different kinds of uncertainty. For instance, the decomposition in groups could involve one subset of factors for each constituent module of the model; or one set for the weights, and one for the factors in a multicriteria analysis; or phenomenological parameters of the model vs. factors driving the model configuratiodstructure aggregation level, etc.); finally, one might imagine that a partition of the uncertainty could be sought between stochastic (or aleatory) and subjective (or epistemic) uncertainty. The present note shows how to compute rigorous decomposition of the output's variance with grouped parameters, and how this approach may be beneficial for the efficiency and transparency of the analysis.     

Corporate governance effectiveness along the entrepreneurial process of a family firm: the role of private equity

This paper was motivated by the increasing interest in the corporate governance debate on how effective structure and processes may influence entrepreneurial transitions. Along the entrepreneurial process, little research to date has investigated the exit in the context of entrepreneurial family firms. Previous literature has considered the exit mainly as a failure for entrepreneurial families, but when uncertainties arise this choice may enable ownership transitions, thus facilitating survival and long term strategies. Among the exit options, a private equity buyout may balance the family’s wealth protection and the firm’s future growth. However, which family specific characteristics and strategic needs may affect the exit option still remains a neglected topic. Drawing on corporate governance literature and recent research addressing entrepreneurship in family firms, this paper investigates, by a single case study, the bridging role of private equity buyout for going through entrepreneurial transitions. Findings suggest that a private equity buyout is a governance mechanism that may sustain an entrepreneurial transition by realigning family interests and goals. It may also allow the family commitment for improving organizational capabilities required by an entrepreneurial transition.     

A note on multiple testing for composite null hypotheses

Multiple hypothesis testing literature has recently experienced a growing development with particular attention to the control of the false discovery rate (FDR) based on p-values. While these are not the only methods to deal with multiplicity, inference with small samples and large sets of hypotheses depends on the specific choice of the p-value used to control the FDR in the presence of nuisance parameters. In this paper we propose to use the partial posterior predictive p-value [Bayarri, M.J., Berger, J.O., 2000. p-values for composite null models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 95, 1127–1142] that overcomes this difficulty. This choice is motivated by theoretical considerations and examples. Finally, an application to a controlled microarray experiment is presented.     

Global imbalances, exchange rates adjustment and the crisis: Implications from network analysis

The persistence of global imbalances remains a potential source of instability for the international economic system, which ought to be tackled in order to exit from the current crisis in a better position. This paper shows that the complexity of the global network of trade imbalances has increased over time in terms of the number of countries involved and of the heterogeneity of their conditions. These findings imply that orchestrating a global exchange rate adjustment plan, as done in the 1980s to tackle a similar problem, is certainly more difficult than it was 20 years ago. We also show, however, that the uncoordinated movements in bilateral exchange rates occurred since the early 2000s did not go in the direction of reducing bilateral imbalances. Rebalancing the world economy, thus, seems to require a rich set of coordinated policy actions and economic changes, involving adjustments in both exchange rates and real variables, which are heterogeneous at the country level. We argue that, provided some conditions are satisfied, the variegated effects of the ongoing financial crisis, and the policy responses this has induced, may help the global and bilateral rebalancing process.     

Different Predictors of Quality of Life in Urban Environment

The present study aimed at comparing the effects of different sets of predictors on quality of life in an urban environment. We used secondary data collected by means of a self-report questionnaire on a sample of 343 residents of a big Italian city. The questionnaire included a multidimensional scale elaborated by the World Health Organization (WHOQoL brief scale) assessing quality of life in terms of four different evaluations concerning distinct aspects of life: physical health; psychological status; social relationships; environment. Four different types of predictors were considered: (1) socio-demographic characteristics; (2) quality of social relations (perceived social support); (3) place attachment; (4) healthy lifestyle. To test the influence of different groups of predictors on the dimensions of WHOQoL we performed four hierarchical regression analyses. Several significant influences were found. In particular the results pointed out the great role of perceived social support and place attachment in promoting quality of life. That result suggests the importance of community interventions in urban environment.     

Probabilistic spatial power indexes

In this study, we present a generalization of spatial power indexes able to overcome their main limitations, namely (i) the excessive concentration of power measures; (ii) the too high sensitivity to players’ location in the ideological space. Voters’ propensity to support an issue is modeled via a random utility function with two additive terms: the deterministic term accounts for voters’ preference-driven/predictable behavior; the random one is a catch-all term that accounts for all the idiosyncratic/unpredictable factors. The relative strength of the two terms gives rise to a continuum of cases ranging from the Shapley value, where all aggregation patterns are equally probable, to a standard spatial value, like the Owen–Shapley index, where instead the conditional order is fully deterministic. As an illustrative application, we analyze the distribution of power in the Council of Ministers under three different scenarios: (i) EU15 Pre-Nice; (ii) EU27 Nice Treaty; (iii) EU27 Lisbon Treaty.     

The Economic Perspective of Food Poverty and (In)security: An Analytical Approach to Measuring and Estimation in Italy

Social Indicators Research - The UN Sustainable Development Goals have set clear targets on global poverty, hunger and malnutrition to be achieved by 2030, which have prompted academics and...     

Does Immigration Raise Blue and White Collar Wages of Natives? The Case of Italy

This paper analyses both theoretically and empirically the effects of immigration on the wage rate of native workers. There is rare evidence in empirical literature that immigration generates a fall in the wages of manual workers. By hypothesizing an economic system where advanced firms buy an intermediate good from traditional firms, which employ manual workers in both clean and dirty tasks, the latter being more disliked by native workers, we present a theoretical model that justifies these results. We conclude that native skilled wages always increase whereas native unskilled wages can both increase or decrease with immigration. An empirical analysis of the Italian labour market follows, showing that native workers' wages always rise with immigration.     

The Islamic Banking Industry in Jordan

Thirty-three years ago Islamic banking was considered wishful thinking. However, serious research over the past two-and-a-half decades has shown that Islamic banking is not only feasible and viable, but is an efficient and productive way of financial intermediation. A number of Islamic banks have also been established during this period in Jordan. The objective of this paper is to examine the structure and performance of the Islamic banking industry in Jordan during the period 2000–2006. We find that the Jordanian Islamic banking industry is still in its infancy compared to a number of countries in the region and there is a growth trend in the financial services market, despite its current concentration and limited size.     

A hierarchical modelling approach for measuring reliability of and agreement between two types of magnetic field dosimeter

Summary.  The paper describes how to use hierarchical models to assess the reliability of and agreement between two or more types of measurement device. The idea is illustrated by fitting a linear model with nested random effects to a set of data that was obtained from the calibration of two samples of extremely low frequency magnetic field meters. The paper focuses on the formulation of a suitable model that accounts for the various aspects of the calibration protocol and the subsequent interpretation of the parameter estimates. The approach is very flexible and can easily be tuned to the various needs arising in the measurement agreement framework. It can be seen as an extension of the common practice of using a one-way random-effects model to retrieve a measure of agreement.