Altersstruktur und Karrierewege der Professorinnen und Professoren in der deutschen Soziologie

The personnel structure on the professorial level is relevant under aspects of both labor-market research and sociology of knowledge. On the basis of a current internet-based data collection of age and career characteristics of the present professors at departments of sociology at German universities, the paper describes cohort composition, qualification process and regional mobility of academic sociologists. Individual-level data allows for the analysis of simple correlations as well as cohort analyses. Age distribution is clearly unequal, even among young East German faculty members. The analysis of characteristics of the different qualification stages shows that this period is rather extended and how hard it is to enter a tenured position. Mobility is higher during the qualification period then after obtaining full professorship. There is a great homogeneity among professors of sociology with respect to age, sex, native country and qualification process. The results suggest that a more foresighted personnel policy and promotion of young sociologists seems necessary and that future studies on the dynamics of research, the development of themes and on scientific productivity in the field are needed.     

Les migrations Est‐ouest dans le debat politique et scientifique en france et en allemagne

Les auteurs de ce texte comparent les discours dominants et la recherche menée en France et en Allemagne de 1990 à 1993 sur les migrations en provenance de l'Europe de l'Est. Ils montrent comment les recherches sont fortement influencées par le débat politique et constatent la divergence d'approche: en France, peu touchée par ces migrations, l'accent est sur l'élargissement du champ migratoire européen, alors qu'en Allemagne, la destination privilégiée de ces migrations, la recherche et le débat sont davantage centrés sur ce pays.     

Estimation of parameters in DNA mixture analysis

In [7], a Bayesian network for analysis of mixed traces of DNA was presented using gamma distributions for modelling peak sizes in the electropherogram. It was demonstrated that the analysis was sensitive to the choice of a variance factor and hence this should be adapted to any new trace analysed. In this paper, we discuss how the variance parameter can be estimated by maximum likelihood to achieve this. The unknown proportions of DNA from each contributor can similarly be estimated by maximum likelihood jointly with the variance parameter. Furthermore, we discuss how to incorporate prior knowledge about the parameters in a Bayesian analysis. The proposed estimation methods are illustrated through a few examples of applications for calculating evidential value in casework and for mixture deconvolution.     

Stable local computation with conditional Gaussian distributions

This article describes a propagation scheme for Bayesian networks with conditional Gaussian distributions that does not have the numerical weaknesses of the scheme derived in Lauritzen (Journal of the American Statistical Association 87: 1098–1108, 1992).The propagation architecture is that of Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 50: 157– 224, 1988).In addition to the means and variances provided by the previous algorithm, the new propagation scheme yields full local marginal distributions. The new scheme also handles linear deterministic relationships between continuous variables in the network specification.The computations involved in the new propagation scheme are simpler than those in the previous scheme and the method has been implemented in the most recent version of the HUGIN software.     

On micro-foundations of dynamic capabilities: A multi-level perspective based on CEO personality and knowledge-based capital

In recent years, researchers have asked why some firms are better than others at developing dynamic capabilities. The existing literature assesses micro-foundations separately, either on the managerial or on the organizational level. This study aims to provide a more holistic picture on the antecedents of dynamic capabilities by integrating managerial and organizational micro-foundations. Specifically, we posit that the personality of Chief Executive Officers (CEOs), manifested through their core self-evaluation (CSE), represents an individual-level micro-foundation which influences three types of a firm's knowledge-based capital—human, social, and organizational capital. We also argue that these three, in turn, are organization-level micro-foundations that ultimately enable the development of a firm's dynamic capabilities. We test our multi-level framework using data from 307 German CEOs, and confirm that CEO CSE is positively related with all three forms of knowledge-based capital. We further find that human capital and organizational capital mediate the relationship between a CEO's CSE and a firm's dynamic capabilities. Our research contributes by extending a central framework of the micro-foundations project (the bathtub model) that integrates the upper echelons perspective into a multi-level analysis. We empirically validate this model and advance the understanding of how firm leaders indirectly influence firm dynamic capabilities by shaping individual learning conditions.     

Estimating subjective probabilities

Subjective probabilities play a central role in many economic decisions and act as an immediate confound of inferences about behavior, unless controlled for. Several procedures to recover subjective probabilities have been proposed, but in order to recover the correct latent probability one must either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake “calibrating adjustments” to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that theory calls for. We illustrate this approach using data from a controlled experiment with real monetary consequences to the subjects. This allows the observer to make inferences about the latent subjective probability, under virtually any well-specified model of choice under subjective risk, while still employing relatively simple elicitation mechanisms.     

The aura of charisma: A review on the embodiment perspective as signaling

Charismatic leaders have consistently been shown to affect followers' performance, motivation, and satisfaction. Yet, what precisely constitutes charisma still remains somewhat enigmatic. So far, research has mainly focused on leader traits, leader behaviors, or the leader follower-relationship, and the subsequent consequences of each on followers' self-concepts. All of these approaches share the notion that leader charisma depends on an explicit interaction between leader and follower. With the present review paper, we extend extant theorizing by arguing that charisma is additionally informed by embodied signals that flow directly from either the leader or the immediate environment. We introduce the embodiment perspective on human perception and describe its utility for theoretically understanding the charismatic effect. Correspondingly, we review studies that show which concrete embodied cues can support the charismatic effect. Finally, we discuss the variety of new theoretical and practical implications that arise from this research and how they can complement existing approaches to charismatic leadership.