A model company

HUGIN Expert is a small company writing software that can be used to create expert systems, using probability in the guise of graphical models. Steffen Lauritzen describes his part in the genesis and development of the company.     

Social Anomie and Racial Segregation in South Africa

The concept of anomie is one of the classics of sociological theory. Developed by scholars such as Emile Durkheim and Robert K. Merton, the concept refers to the absence of clear social norms and values and to a lack of sense of social regulation. However, whereas Merton focused on features of relative deprivation that cause anomie, Durkheim was primarily interested in the link between rapid social change and social anomie. According to the latter, normative regulation is threatened with being undermined and people are likely to lack the social and psychological means for adjustment in times of rapid social change. Drawing on survey data from the South African General Household Survey polled in 2002, the article examines the ethnical differences in levels of social anomie in the South African society. In order to do so, we, first, place the South African levels of anomie into comparative context. In a second step, we look at the race specific levels of anomie. Third, we investigate whether the differences in anomie between the races are related to the still existing socio-economic inequalities or whether race can be regarded as an independent factor that impacts on anomie. Finally we scrutinize to what extent socio-economic factors account for different levels of anomie within the races.     

Die neue Rolle des Projektmanagements – mit dem richtigen Projektmanagement-Assessment zu Wettbewerbsvorteilen

Companies are facing new challenges. Project management can help to address these challenges. But this requires an extended interpretation of project management. This article presents such an extended interpretation in form of project management as a management approach. On this foundation a continuum of project management is being deducted and the new goals, tasks and methods of project management are outlined. In addition this extended interpretation of project management imposes the responsibility on management to ensure the existence of the required project management competences and the need to bring them alive in daily project business. This usually requires the establishment or further development of situational project management competences on corporate and on individual level. The execution of a project management assessment can identify which project management competences are required and to which extent they are already available in the company. But the extended interpretation of project management also imposes new requirements to the assessment model. Those requirements are being described in this article. Furthermore COACH PM, an exemplary realisation of this new type of assessment model, is being introduced to demonstrate how the application of such an assessment model can improve the company’s capability for self-reflection significantly.     

The long run consequences of unilateral divorce laws on children—evidence from SHARELIFE

Previous research has shown adverse effects of growing up under unilateral divorce laws on long-term outcomes of children. It remains an open question of whether these effects of early childhood conditions arise due to divorce laws raising the likelihood of parental marital disruption or whether unilateral divorce laws also affect children in intact marriages by changing intra-household bargaining. Using recently available data from SHARELIFE for 11 Western European countries, we address this question employing a difference-in-differences approach and controlling for childhood family structure and socioeconomic status. Like previous research, we find adverse effects of growing up under unilateral divorce laws on the well-being of children. This effect remains even when controlling for childhood variables. We conclude that unilateral divorce laws affect children by changing family bargaining in intact marriages.     

Childhood maltreatment among Norwegian drug abusers in treatment

This article reports on the investigation of the correlation between the European Addiction Severity Index (EuropASI) and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ) among 102 Norwegian drug abusers admitted to treatment. The aim of the study is to explore how different types and levels of childhood trauma and social and psychiatric factors, medical situation and experienced family history are interrelated. The study addresses three main questions: 1) What is the prevalence of different kinds of childhood trauma among drug abusers in treatment? 2) Does type or level of maltreatment in childhood predict specific substance abuse problems as adults and/or specific social, psychiatric and medical problems as adults? 3) Do substance abuse problems and mental health problems in the primary family predict different types and levels of childhood maltreatment? Twenty‐five per cent of the total sample was included in the high‐level trauma group and 54% in the intermediate‐level group. Females had significantly higher scores than males in all types of childhood trauma. The strongest correlations were found between childhood trauma and lifetime psychiatric problems and psychiatric status during the last 30 days before admission for treatment. More research, and especially prospective studies, is needed to clarify the importance of parents' substance abuse and psychiatric problems in childhood/adolescent compared with trauma in the client's childhood and the client's current psychiatric status.     

Informational cascades in the laboratory: Do they occur for the right reasons?

Recently, the theory of informational cascades has been tested in an experiment by L. Anderson and Ch. Holt (American Economic Review, 87 (1997) 847–862) who report that their data support the theory amazingly well. In this paper we report on an experiment designed to find out whether observed cascades are indeed due to rational Bayesian updating. However, we find little support for rational updating. The simple heuristic “follow your own signal” does much better in explaining our data than Bayesian rationality.     

Opposite Trends in the Regulation of Pornography? Policy Differentiation and Policy Convergence Across 26 Countries Between 1960 and 2010

In recent decades, the regulation of pornography has been confronted with challenges emerging from cultural change, economic interests, and technological progress. As a result, the respective regulatory frameworks have changed substantially in many countries. These changes have been accompanied by fierce political struggles and societal value conflicts. However, there are few comparative studies on the reactions of national governments to these problems. In this article, we present new empirical data on the regulation of pornography in 26 countries between 1960 and 2010. To assess regulatory change, we rely on a new measurement approach that considers the extent to which governments intervene into individual freedoms and the degree to which noncompliance with these rules is actually sanctioned. Our analysis reveals a trend toward more permissive styles of pornography regulation. However, this trend is accompanied by growing regulatory specialization and a convergence toward more interventionist regimes for special types of pornography.