Demographic crisis: The impact of the Bangladesh civil war (1971) on births and deaths in a rural area of Bangladesh

Summary In Matlab Bazaar Thana the Cholera Research Laboratory has registered the births, deaths and migrations in a population of approximately 125,000 since 1966. Although this rural area was not the scene of any significant armed encounters, striking changes in birth and death rates were registered during and after the conflict. Birth rates did not change during the relatively brief period of the civil war, but a small decline was registered for one year after the war. Fertility rates which had been declining slightly and irregularly in the pre-war baseline period may have increased slightly during the war and fell substantially in all age groups in the year following the war. The crude death rate, which rose by 37 per cent during the war, was a very sensitive reflection of the administrative and economic problems. Overall infant mortality rose by only 15 per cent over pre-war levels because all of the increase was observed in the post-neo-natal component, which traditionally accounts for less than one-third of the total infant mortality in Bangladesh. Children and older adults accounted for the majority of excess deaths which were largely attributed to acute diarrhoeas and other gastro-intestinal causes. The death rate at ages 1-4 rose by 43 per cent and at ages 5-9 soared to 208 per cent above pre-war baseline rates. All increases in age-specific mortality rates fell to baseline levels during the year following the war, except the 5-9-year age group, in which rates continued to be high largely because of deaths due to dysentery.     

Decision Analysis and Risk Management Decision Making: Issues and Methods

This paper provides an overview of decision analysis and its use in risk management decision making. The paper discusses the distinctive characteristics of decision analysis and compares these characteristics with those of its principal alternative—cost–benefit analysis. The paper also discusses each of the steps in a decision analysis and the strengths and limitations of the method.     

Regression coefficient analysis for correlated binomial outcomes

At present, the generalized estimating equation (GEE) and weighted least-squares (WLS) regression methods are the most widely used methods for analyzing correlated binomial data; both are easily implemented using existing software packages. We propose an alternative technique, i.e. regression coefficient analysis (RCA), for this type of data. In RCA, a regression equation is computed for each of n individuals; regression coefficients are averaged across the n equations to produce a regression equation, which predicts marginal probabilities and which can be tested to address hypotheses of different slopes between groups, slopes different from zero, different intercepts, etc. The method is computationally simple and can be performed using standard software. Simulations and examples are used to compare the power and robustness of RCA with those of the standard GEE and WLS methods. We find that RCA is comparable with the GEE method under the conditions tested, and suggest that RCA, within specified limitations, is a viable alternative to the GEE and WLS methods in the analysis of correlated binomial data.     

Reconstructing the size of the African American population by age and sex, 1930–1990

We estimate the size of the African American population in five-year age groups at census dates from 1930 to 1990 using a three-part strategy. For cohorts born after 1935, we follow the U.S. Census Bureau in using classical demographic analysis. To estimate the size of cohorts born before 1895, we use extinct-generation estimates. For remaining cohorts, we implement an age/period/cohort model of census counts. All approaches are applied to a data set in which the age distribution of deaths has been corrected for age misreporting. Results provide strong confirmation of the basic validity of Census Bureau estimates of census undercounts for African Americans while extending estimates to new cohorts and periods. Our estimates are less consistent with an historical series prepared by Coale and Rives (1973).     

Gender roles,HIV risk behaviors,and perceptions of using female condoms among college students

The purpose of this study was to examine relationships between gender roles and HIV risk behavior, and perceptions and acceptance of the female condom among college students (n = 410). It was hypothesized that high hyperfeminine females and high hypermasculine males – those adhering to traditional gender roles – would engage in more HIV risk behaviors, including alcohol and drug use and various sexual practices, than those with lower hyperfemininity and hypermasculinity. It was also hypothesized that higher hyperfeminine females as well as higher hypermasculine males would perceive the female condom more negatively and would be less likely to view the female condom as a viable form of protection in the future. It was also hypothesized that high hyperfeminine females and high hypermasculine males would not accept the female condom as an alternative form of protection. Implications for prevention interventions are discussed.     

Preference in flower visits and partitioning in pollen diets of stingless bees in an Asian tropical rain forest

Floral resource partitioning among stingless bees (Trigona, Meliponini, Apidae) in a lowland rain forest in Sarawak, Malaysia, was investigated using tree towers and walkways in a 4-year study that included a general flowering period. We obtained 100 collections of insect visitors to flowers of varying floral location and shape representing 81 plant species. The tendency of 11 species of stingless bees to visit specific flowers with a particular floral location and shape was analyzed by logistic regression analysis. This analysis showed that the proportion of flower visitor collections containing Trigona fuscobalteata and T. melanocephala differed according to floral location. The former was frequently collected at canopy and gap flowers, whereas the latter was most often collected at understory flowers. The analysis also suggested that T. erythrogastra was more rarely collected at shallow flowers than at deep flowers. Analysis of the pollen diets of T. collina, T. fuscobalteata, T. melanocephala, and T. melina revealed that similarity of pollen sources differed among the six permutated pairs of the four species. The lowest mean rank of similarity found was between T. fuscobalteata and T. melanocephala. This result supports the hypothesis that preference in visiting flowers in different locations leads to pollen resource partitioning. Received: May 14, 1997 / Accepted: April 23, 1999     

Retrospective information on health status and its application for population health measures

Healthy life expectancies are almost always calculated by using health data from cross-sectional surveys. This type of calculation is done partly because data from longitudinal surveys are not always available, and when they are available, they are collected at intervals that are longer than one year. In such cases, collecting health information retrospectively for the years skipped by the survey is useful. The main purpose of this paper is to show how retrospective health information can be used to estimate life expectancies in different health states. Healthy life expectancies are estimated with and without using data on retrospective health information, and the corresponding estimates are compared. The two sets of estimates are similar. We conclude that retrospectively assessed health information based on a one-year recall period can be used to estimate years of life in various health states and that estimates based on such information will closely approximate estimates based on concurrent health information.