Migration Decisions of Dual-earner Families: An Application of Multilevel Modeling

A comprehensive framework for guiding analyses of internal migration is lacking. This study contributes to the family migration literature in three important ways. We develop a multilevel theoretical framework emphasizing an integration of individual-, family-, and neighborhood-level effects; introduce multilevel statistical modeling; and explicitly assess how effects of economic-based explanatory variables vary by gender. Our data are from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). We find that the likelihood of a family migrating is affected by economic and non-economic factors, some of which vary by gender. We add to the dual-earner migration literature by finding that wives are not likely to be tied-movers, but husbands are likely to be tied-stayers. Neighborhood factors also are important to the decision to migrate.

The Continuing Legacy of the Communist Legacy? The development of family policies in Poland and the Czech Republic

This article compares family policies in Poland and the CzechRepublic in order to explain why the two countries have differentpolicies. Previous studies are right to claim that post-communistfamily policies are basically going in a refamilialist directionthat gives mothers a greater incentive to return to the home,but they tend to neglect the important differences that existbetween countries. Although previous studies were correct toemphasize the role of the anti-feminist communist legacy inexplaining this trend toward re-famialilization, it is a country'seconomic-institutional legacy that goes the farthest in explainingthe differences in policies.     

FEAR,ANGER, AND CREDIT. ON BANK ROBBERIES AND LOAN CONDITIONS

We study the impact of emotions on real-world decisions made by loan officers by analyzing the loan conditions of loans granted immediately after a bank branch robbery. We find significant differences between the conditions of loans granted after a robbery and changes in loan conditions that occur contemporaneously at unaffected branches. In general, loan officers seem to adopt so-called avoidance behavior. In accordance with the literature on posttraumatic stress, their avoidance behavior is halved within 2 weeks following the robbery and the effect further varies depending on the presence, or absence, of a firearm during the robbery. (JEL G02, G2)     

On Sampling Error in Market Share Estimates*

The relative error in the usual estimator of a brand's market share is reformulated in terms of marketing parameters. Such error is shown to be influenced in an important way by market penetration, as well as by variation in brand and product category volume. Of particular interest is the result that the relative error does not depend on the actual share level. Using data from a marketing research firm that supplies share estimates to the health products industry, we find that the relative error may be substantial even when a large sample is available. An upper bound on this relative error is obtained using marketing parameters that can frequently be measured using industry data and a company's internal records, thus reducing the level of judgmental input required in the planning of sample surveys.     

Comment: there may be compositional effects,but they do not work that way*

This analysis joins the debate on how declines in marriage have shifted the composition of the unmarried and married populations in the United States, and how compositional shifts have affected nonmarital birth rates. Gray, Stockard, and Stone (2006) presented one model for compositional effects that Ermisch (2009) challenged with alternative statistical tests. I propose an alternative model for compositional shifts based not on theory but on observed marriage and fertility patterns. The results from this alternative model are consistent with Ermisch’s findings yet support Gray et al.’s general case that compositional effects have had an important infiuence on nonmarital birth rates.     

THE USE OF AGGREGATE DATA TO ESTIMATE GOMPERTZ‐TYPE OLD‐AGE MORTALITY IN HETEROGENEOUS POPULATIONS

We consider two related aspects of the study of old‐age mortality. One is the estimation of a parameterized hazard function from grouped data, and the other is its possible deceleration at extreme old age owing to heterogeneity described by a mixture of distinct sub‐populations. The first is treated by half of a logistic transform, which is known to be free of discretization bias at older ages, and also preserves the increasing slope of the log hazard in the Gompertz case. It is assumed that data are available in the form published by official statistical agencies, that is, as aggregated frequencies in discrete time. Local polynomial modelling and weighted least squares are applied to cause‐of‐death mortality counts. The second, related, problem is to discover what conditions are necessary for population mortality to exhibit deceleration for a mixture of Gompertz sub‐populations. The general problem remains open but, in the case of three groups, we demonstrate that heterogeneity may be such that it is possible for a population to show decelerating mortality and then return to a Gompertz‐like increase at a later age. This implies that there are situations, depending on the extent of heterogeneity, in which there is at least one age interval in which the hazard function decreases before increasing again.