我国通货膨胀结构突变及不确定性检验

 我们利用GARCH (1, 1) 模型对我国通货膨胀率动态过程中的结构转变点进行了样本内及样本外检验,进而对通货膨胀不确定性进行测度。研究发现,我国通货膨胀率序列在1983年1月至2008年5月之间存在一个显著的结构转变,结构转变点发生在1996年1月,这与我国在1996年成功实现经济“软着陆”的事实相一致。基于两个基准模型和五个比较模型在不同预测水平下对样本外数据进行预测所得结果表明,五个比较模型在大多数情况下能够获得小于两个基准模型的均值损失。此外,我们使用多个模型进行联合预测,发现联合预测的结果具有一定的代表性。     

Bridge regression: Adaptivity and group selection

In high-dimensional regression problems regularization methods have been a popular choice to address variable selection and multicollinearity. In this paper we study bridge regression that adaptively selects the penalty order from data and produces flexible solutions in various settings. We implement bridge regression based on the local linear and quadratic approximations to circumvent the nonconvex optimization problem. Our numerical study shows that the proposed bridge estimators are a robust choice in various circumstances compared to other penalized regression methods such as the ridge, lasso, and elastic net. In addition, we propose group bridge estimators that select grouped variables and study their asymptotic properties when the number of covariates increases along with the sample size. These estimators are also applied to varying-coefficient models. Numerical examples show superior performances of the proposed group bridge estimators in comparisons with other existing methods.     

从语言结构的角度对比中西语言文化

汉语和英语的差别有很多。从语言结构的角度,通过汉英两种语言在词汇结构、单句结构、从句结构、文化原因等方面的对化加以分析。     

论社会工作在临海家庭扶贫中的介入模式及优势——兼析广东“双到”扶贫模式

对临海贫困家庭进行社会工作介入有着特别的学科意义与现实的社会意义。目前行政主导扶贫模式虽有快速脱贫优势,但也有其潜在问题。针对临海家庭具体致贫原因,社会工作拥有多种合适介入模式与工作方法。社会工作专业使命与学科特性决定了社工扶贫模式相对于行政主导扶贫模式而言,无疑是一种集专业性、高效性、长效性等多种优势于一体的社会反贫困机制。走社工扶贫模式的社会扶贫道路是社会发展趋势,也应是中国社会的理性选择。     

Accuracy and bias in self-perception of performance: Narcissism matters in Korea as well

Debates regarding the nature of self-enhancement versus accurate self-assessment have been active among psychologists for decades. More recently, researchers have become interested in the panculturality of self-enhancement. Some researchers argue that self-enhancement is universal and present within all cultures. Others declare self-enhancement to be a Western tendency, with self-diminishment being the norm among East Asians. Importantly, the majority of such studies have not compared self-perceptions against objective external criteria, especially those with East Asians. Furthermore, the link between narcissism and self-enhancement has been largely overlooked within Korean samples. To address such gaps, we utilized scores on an objective test as a criterion to investigate the accuracy of Koreans’ self-assessments of performance, as well as how individual differences in narcissism are related to such assessments. A sample of Korean students (N = 146; 71 women) completed self-report measures of narcissism and self-esteem, and took a listening comprehension quiz. Estimated and actual scores were collected and used to compute self-enhancement scores. Results demonstrated that Koreans’ self-perceptions of performance on the quiz were quite accurate. As has been found in Western cultures, narcissism was related to self-enhancement.     

人格派生财产权初探

“人格权商品化”及类似观点,使人格权具有了双重属性,颠覆了人们对人格权的既有认识,动摇了人们对人格权原有的逻辑判断和价值判断。人格派生财产权的观点认为,在人格权的基础上,权利人还享有人格派生财产权。它与人格权是有内在联系的两种民事权利,人格权是人格派生财产权的基础法律关系。人格派生财产权是以信息化人格要素和能够信息化的人格要素为客体的。人格派生财产权人可以就自己的人格要素为他人设立用益债权。用益债权是财产权,可以在市场上流通。人格派生财产权可以继承。肖像权、姓名权、隐私权及声音权等是具体人格权,是消极的禁止权,对肖像、姓名、隐私、声音等人格要素在经济上的积极利用,不是人格权固有的、本身的内容,而是财产权的内容。对肖像用益的一个前提,是把肖像转化为映像,映像是一种信息。姓名、声音、隐私等本身是一种信息,可以作为财产进行用益。     

Did PRWORA's mandatory school attendance policy increase attendance among targeted teenage girls?

The purpose of this paper was to examine if the school-attendance requirement of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) significantly increased attendance among the teenage girls that the policy targeted. This study applied difference-in-difference and difference-in-difference-in-difference methods to 12 years of cross-sectional data from the October Supplement of the Current Population Survey while isolating the effects of PRWORA from the effects of other factors that might have influenced the target population's school attendance. The findings indicated that PRWORA, overall, did not have significant positive impacts on school attendance; rather, the policy was associated with a small but significant reduction in school attendance of U.S.-born disadvantaged teenage girls between 1996 through 1999 and essentially no effects on the target population thereafter.     

氯法拉滨的合成工艺改进

目的合成标题化合物,并进行工艺改进。方法以1-乙酰基-2,3,5三-O-苯甲酰基-β-D-呋喃核糖为起始原料,制得1-氯-2-脱氧-2-氟-3,5-二-O-苯甲酰基-α-D-阿拉伯糖(化合物6）。化合物6与2-氯腺嘌呤在四氯化锡作用下发生缩合反应生成氯法拉滨。结果总收率为8.4%,目标化合物的结构经IR、1H-NMR、MS等方法确证。结论该合成工艺具有原料易得,操作简便,易于工业化生产等特点。     

印度的安全战略构想与中印边界问题

中印边界问题由来已久。出于地缘政治和安全战略考虑 ,独立后的印度继承了英印殖民主义者的做法 ,推行所谓的“前进政策” ,谋求把中国的西藏变成“缓冲国”。印方传统的战略思维模式和强加于人的做法致使中印边界问题长期无法得到妥善解决 ,并成为制约两国关系发展的重要因素。国际形势的变化促使印度重新评估其安全战略 ,但从实践来看 ,其安全战略和军事战略并未从根本上摆脱传统思维模式的羁绊     

基于熵权法的科学技术评价模型及其实证研究

以“坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续”的科学发展观内涵为指导思想,通过科技指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了科技综合评价指标体系。用熵权法客观地对评价指标进行赋权,建立了基于熵权法的中国“十五”期间的科学技术发展状况评价模型,并给出了“十一五”期间科技发展政策建议。研究特色有五：①根据国际关注、又好又快、可持续发展和以人为本的原则建立指标体系,使科学技术的评价反映科学发展观的要求;②通过熵权法客观地确定指标权重,避免了人为主观确定权重的随意性;③利用熵权法确定的熵值,确保了仅用24个指标反映了95．5％以上的原始信息;④通过对影响科学技术整体效果的准则层进行评价,有助于找出科技发展各环节存在的问题;⑤通过对中国“十五”期间科技发展中的主要问题的分析,给出了“十一五”期间中国科技发展的政策建议。