Designing and integrating composite networks for monitoring multivariate gaussian pollution fields

Networks of ambient monitoring stations are used to monitor environmental pollution fields such as those for acid rain and air pollution. Such stations provide regular measurements of pollutant concentrations. The networks are established for a variety of purposes at various times so often several stations measuring different subsets of pollutant concentrations can be found in compact geographical regions. The problem of statistically combining these disparate information sources into a single 'network' then arises. Capitalizing on the efficiencies so achieved can then lead to the secondary problem of extending this network. The subject of this paper is a set of 31 air pollution monitoring stations in southern Ontario. Each of these regularly measures a particular subset of ionic sulphate, sulphite, nitrite and ozone. However, this subset varies from station to station. For example only two stations measure all four. Some measure just one. We describe a Bayesian framework for integrating the measurements of these stations to yield a spatial predictive distribution for unmonitored sites and unmeasured concentrations at existing stations. Furthermore we show how this network can be extended by using an entropy maximization criterion. The methods assume that the multivariate response field being measured has a joint Gaussian distribution conditional on its mean and covariance function. A conjugate prior is used for these parameters, some of its hyperparameters being fitted empirically.     

Hard thresholding regression

In this paper, we propose the hard thresholding regression (HTR) for estimating high‐dimensional sparse linear regression models. HTR uses a two‐stage convex algorithm to approximate the ?₀‐penalized regression: The first stage calculates a coarse initial estimator, and the second stage identifies the oracle estimator by borrowing information from the first one. Theoretically, the HTR estimator achieves the strong oracle property over a wide range of regularization parameters. Numerical examples and a real data example lend further support to our proposed methodology.     

高维大数据基因网络中的社区发现——以NC方法为例

从大量基因中识别出致病基因是大数据下的一个十分重要的高维统计问题。基因间网络结构的存在使得对于致病基因的识别已从单个基因识别扩展到基因模块识别。从基因网络中挖掘出基因模块就是所谓的社区发现（或节点聚类）问题。绝大多数社区发现方法仅利用网络结构信息,而忽略节点本身的信息。Newman和Clauset于2016年提出了一个将二者有机结合的基于统计推断的社区发现方法（简称为NC方法）。本文以NC方法为案例,介绍统计方法在实际基因网络中的应用和取得的成果,并从统计学角度提出了改进措施。通过对NC方法的分析可以看出对于以基因网络为代表的非结构化数据,统计思想和原理在数据分析中仍然处于核心地位。而相应的统计方法则需要针对数据的特点及关心的问题进行相应的调整和优化。     

网络社区发现算法在流动表建模中的设计与应用

代际流动表可以统计子代与其父代社会地位配对数据的交互频数,反映了社会资源占有的优劣势在父子两代人之间的比较。对财富、阶级、特权等社会基本特征演变的实证考察,均依赖于代际流动表的量化分析。对数线性模型是流动表建模分析的基本工具,通过对列联表单元格频数进行拟合,可以识别流动表行分类与列分类之间的强弱交互效应,刻画父子社会地位间的交互结构。本文利用复杂网络社区发现算法分析父子社会地位的关联结构,针对简约对数线性模型拟合精度不够的问题,提出一种新的建模思路：利用社区发现算法对简约对数线性模型的残差列联表进行关联关系挖掘,将发现的社区效应作为附加参数约束引入原对数线性模型,以改善数据的拟合情况。由于该方法只在原简约对数线性模型中增加了一个参数约束,因此仍可以保证建模结果的简洁性及理论意义,同时社区效应补充了原对数线性模型对经验数据结构的解读。论文用此方法对来源于中国综合社会调查数据的经验代际职业流动表进行建模分析,较好地解释了子代职业阶层与父代职业阶层间的关联模式。     

REAL EXCHANGE RATE,MONETARY POLICY,AND THE U.S. ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM A FAVAR MODEL

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate depreciation to the U.S. economy in a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model using monthly data of 148 variables for the post–Bretton Woods period of 1973–2017. Exchange rate shock is identified to reflect exogenous disturbances to the foreign exchange market, and movements in exchange rate that are not accounted for by changes in the U.S. monetary policy. We find that depreciation is expansionary and inflationary to the broad U.S. economy, the current account improves over time conforming to the J‐curve theory, and monetary policy is leaning against the wind. (JEL E3, E5, F31, F32, F41)     

Impact of metabolic status on the association of serum vitamin D with hypogonadism and lower urinary tract symptoms/benign prostatic hyperplasia

Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of metabolic status on associations of serum vitamin D with hypogonadism and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS)/benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH).

Patients and methods: A total of 612 men underwent physical examination, biochemical/hormonal blood testing, and transrectal prostate ultrasound. Moreover, the subjects filled out standard questionnaires for identification and grading of LUTS and hypogonadism symptoms. Parameters were statistically compared with independent t-tests and correlation analyses.

Results: Vitamin D levels positively correlated with total testosterone (TT) but not with prostate volume or International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). Patients with metabolic syndrome had significantly lower vitamin D levels, which were not correlated with TT, prostate volume, or IPSS. However, vitamin D was positively correlated with TT, and negatively correlated with prostate volume and quality-of-life IPSS in subjects without metabolic syndrome.

Conclusion: The clinical usefulness of vitamin D for treatment of hypogonadism or LUTS/BPH varies according to metabolic status.     

适度提高养老保险农民缴费档次的可行性分析

通过对不同经济发展程度地区农民参保情况的调查,发现目前农民在选择养老保险缴费时往往选择最低标准和档次的缴费。通过分析,认为城乡居民基本养老保险制度设计缺乏长远考虑、制度执行过程注重眼前利益、农民更倾向传统养老方式以及存在盲从心理等是城乡居民基本养老保险农民低档次缴费的原因。在对农民养老需求与缴费能力进行分析的基础上,认为当前可以适度提高农民缴费档次,通过采取更具有激励性的缴费政策、规范制度执行等措施来促进农民选择更高的缴费档次。     

论司法中的程序公正

司法公正包括实体公正和程序公正两个方面,其中程序公正是司法公正的核心。罗尔斯将程序正义区分为纯粹的程序正义、完善的程序正义和不完善的程序正义三种类型。根据罗尔斯的程序正义理论,程序公正可以被视为纯粹的程序正义。程序公正的衡量标准包括法官中立、当事人平等、程序公开、司法效率这四方面的基本原则。     

共同富裕视域下三次分配的理论基础、本质要求及路径保障

在我国,三次分配是以马克思主义分配正义思想为理论指导,以社会主义按劳分配为分配原则,以第一次分配、第二次分配为分配基础,把第三次分配作为中国特色社会主义新时代收入分配制度体系重要组成部分的一种基础性制度安排,体现了社会主义的本质要求,是新时代落实以人民为中心的发展思想、使全体人民共同富裕取得更为明显的实质性进展的有效措施。本题以“社会公平正义”为价值原则,以“社会道德良知”为价值选择,以“社会共同富裕”为价值归宿,建构与阐明了中国特色社会主义新时代三次分配问题的基本共识,突出强调改善收入与社会财富分配上的最大公约数。三次分配以共同富裕为出发点和归宿也就决定了中国特色社会主义新时代三次分配必须遵从社会共同富裕的本质要求,明确社会主义核心价值观舆论导向,培育社会道德良知;加强政府对分配的监管,促进基本公共服务合理分配;深化分配制度改革,推进社会共同富裕逐步形成。     

日本国策文学在海外的蔓延和变异——以沦陷期日文杂志《上海文学》为中心

在日本占领上海时期诞生的日文杂志《上海文学》,从根本上来说,是日本国策文学的产物,是战时日本所谓对海外“文化工作”的一部分,它的主旋律是对“大东亚战争”的鼓吹。但与日本国内的国策文学不同的是,它的上海地域色彩,以及有部分中国文人的参与。内山完造是这一文学杂志的核心之一,因而在所谓的主旋律之外,其作品表现出了各种异色甚至多元的倾向。共发行六期的《上海文学》,是研究这一时期日本海外国策文学、沦陷期的上海日文文坛及变异的中日文学关系的重要日文文献。本文的工作主要聚焦这份湮没已久的日文杂志的梳理,在揭出其文献价值的同时,依据原始文献,对其中表现出来的日本海外国策文学的底色和异色进行评析,以此来探讨这一时期海外日本文人对于这场战争和中日关系的认知。