万里长城写生日记(之七)

到达丰镇后,安顿好了住处,助手杨子即去县委宣传部拜访。下午4点助手回来告知：宣传部的同志们非常热情,介绍了一些情况。但丰镇境内的长城可见者不多,大都只剩残基,更无甚文物古迹。城关东北角有一古庙,可以一看。     

The evolution of structural resilience of global oil and gas resources trade network

This paper establishes anetwork resilience evaluation framework of the global oil and gas resourcetrade network in 2010, 2015 and 2020. The results are as follows: The links of the oil trade network present a gradually shrinking trend, and the gas tradenetwork presents a trend of close connection first and then reduced. In termsof network density, network centrality, network connectivity and network size, the structural resilience of the oil and gas resource trade network displays ashrinking trend, and the gas trade network is superior. Concerninginvulnerability and recovery, the resilience of the oil trade network issuperior to the natural gas trade network. In simulated attacks, the oil tradenetwork reveals a higher resilience towards intentional attacks, and the gastrade network shows a higher resilience towards random attacks. The Strait ofHormuz and the Strait of Malacca are critical chokepoints in the networks.     

Estimation of conditional cumulative incidence functions under generalized semiparametric regression models with missing covariates,with application to analysis of biomarker correlates in vaccine trials

This article presents generalized semiparametric regression models for conditional cumulative incidence functions with competing risks data when covariates are missing by sampling design or happenstance. A doubly robust augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) complete-case approach to estimation and inference is investigated. This approach modifies IPW complete-case estimating equations by exploiting the key features in the relationship between the missing covariates and the phase-one data to improve efficiency. An iterative numerical procedure is derived to solve the nonlinear estimating equations. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. A simulation study examining the finite-sample performances of the proposed estimators shows that the AIPW estimators are more efficient than the IPW estimators. The developed method is applied to the RV144 HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial to investigate vaccine-induced IgG binding antibodies to HIV-1 as correlates of acquisition of HIV-1 infection while taking account of whether the HIV-1 sequences are near or far from the HIV-1 sequences represented in the vaccine construct.     

新博物馆学理念下社区型文化遗产地可持续发展

新博物馆学诞生于后现代主义、后殖民主义思潮及世界遗产运动勃兴的文化土壤,带有民主化、多元化、地方化特点.新博物馆学提倡以人为本,服务社区与社会发展,强调对社区文化生态的整体性保护,关注社区日常生活,保护社区集体记忆和多元文化.这一理念适应了文化遗产地保护的社区化趋势,以人本性的核心旨归、地方性的叙事视角、活态性的保护方式、开放性的运行机制,发挥博物馆教育功能,丰富社区参与途径,重建社区集体记忆,有效提升社区居民的文化自觉,守护社区文化根脉,优化社区文化生态,实现社区型文化遗产地可持续发展.     

易地扶贫搬迁儿童的社会融入问题及其教育支持

易地扶贫搬迁儿童的社会融入及教育问题,将会影响其身心健康发展及社会的和谐稳定.调查发现,影响易地扶贫搬迁儿童社会融入的因素主要表现在教育融入上的层次错位、生活融入上的方式改变、交往融入上的对象差异、文化融入上的多元共生四个方面.从时空社会学视角观测,时间和空间的改变皆会对儿童的心理和行为产生影响.因此,要加强家校社合育机制建设,促进服务成效的提升;增强搬迁儿童的社区适应教育,共同促进社会融入;重视搬迁儿童的学校教育,加快适应新生活;关注搬迁儿童的家庭教育,给予儿童更多的关爱引导.     

基于变系数模型的高维数据异同性识别方法研究

随着信息技术的发展,高维数据日益丰富。现实中,很多高维数据由多个主体各异的数据集融合而成。如何准确识别出高维数据集间的异同性成为大数据分析的目标之一。本文提出了变系数模型下的高维数据整合分析方法。该方法可以同时对多个数据集进行变量选择和系数估计,并且能 够自动识别出变量系数在数据集间的异同性。模拟结果表明本文方法在异同性识别、变量选择、系数估 计和预测等方面明显优于对比方法。在肺癌致病基因识别的应用研究中,本文方法能够识别出具有生物解释的致病基因并发现了两种亚型之间的异同性。     

Status of an alien turtle in city park waters and its potential threats to local biodiversity: the red-eared slider in Beijing

Urban Ecosystems - Invasive alien species pose a serious threat to native biodiversity and the ecosystem structure through predation or competition, and this threat is especially severe in China....     

Semiparametric regression analysis of doubly censored failure time data from cohort studies

Lifetime Data Analysis - Doubly censored failure time data occur when the failure time of interest represents the elapsed time between two events, an initial event and a subsequent event, and the...     

我国未成年人犯罪治理体系的重构与完善——以刑罚的正当化根据为切入点

未成年人犯罪案件的高发常引发有关应否降低刑事责任年龄的争议,而争议的本质在于应否采用刑罚手段治理未成年人犯罪,即站在传统报应论立场的“以刑代教”与基于现代预防刑论的“以教为刑”之争。引发争议的现实原因在于我国现有未成年人犯罪治理体系的“失灵”,即存在刑罚与非刑罚处遇措施不明确、保安处分措施缺失与刑事政策偏重保护等方面的局限。在现有体系尚不完善之时,仅仅降低最低刑事责任年龄,扩大犯罪圈恐非良策。同时考虑到立法成本与司法现状,弹性刑事责任年龄制度的引入亦不可取。应着力从以下方面对现有体系进行完善:重视未成年人犯罪的特殊预防,在个案中充分贯彻个别化原则,并在现有的犯罪治理体系中增设保安处分规定。