Using Bayesian graphical models to model biases in observational studies and to combine multiple sources of data: application to low birth weight and water disinfection by-products

Summary.  Data in the social, behavioural and health sciences frequently come from observational studies instead of controlled experiments. In addition to random errors, observational data typically contain additional sources of uncertainty such as missing values, unmeasured confounders and selection biases. Also, the research question is often different from that which a particular source of data was designed to answer, and so not all relevant variables are measured. As a result, multiple sources of data are often necessary to identify the biases and to inform about different aspects of the research question. Bayesian graphical models provide a coherent way to connect a series of local submodels, based on different data sets, into a global unified analysis. We present a unified modelling framework that will account for multiple biases simultaneously and give more accurate parameter estimates than standard approaches. We illustrate our approach by analysing data from a study of water disinfection by-products and adverse birth outcomes in the UK.     

Exploring Partial Order of European Countries

Partial Order Theory has been recently more and more employed in applied science to overcome the intrinsic disadvantage hidden in aggregation, if a multiple attribute system is available. Despite its numerous positive features, there are many practical cases where the interpretation of the partial order can be rather troublesome. In these cases the analysis of underlying dimensions could be useful to uncover particular data structures. The paper shows a way of addressing the problem with the help of an actual case study, which deals with European opinions on services of general interest. In particular, a partial order of countries is firstly provided and then a method to detect dimensions is discussed and applied. The analysis stems directly from the Partially Order Set (poset) and Lattice theory with particular references to dimension theory and Formal Concept Analysis. The study is eventually able to pinpoint role and relevance of different attributes characterizing EU countries which are used to define the partial order.

Complexity: Some Remarks about a Classical Aesthetic Concept

The connection between autonomous art and complexity has been extensively and deeply studied in literary theories in the 20th century. The rise of aesthetic autonomy implies the complexity of literary work as the concept of a sealed container arises from the relationship between the parts that make it up. In this model, the interpretation subject works to directly face literary texts. Instead of pursuing the author’s intention, it aims to reproduce the richness and subtlety of the aesthetic state, and consider the richness and subtlety revealed in the maximum amount of text details in literary works, even if procedurally deviating from the way of mainstream understanding. There is increasing skepticism about the consequences of the autonomous aesthetics, which has been coerced by the development of contemporary capitalism, and it is necessary to develop new forms of aesthetics to reflect the changing social situation.     

Allais for the poor: Relations to ability,information processing,and risk attitudes

This paper complements evidence on the Allais paradox from advanced countries and educated people by a novel investigation in a poor rural area. The share of Allais-type behavior is indeed high and related to indicators of “lacking ability,” such as poor education, unemployment, and little financial sophistication. Based on prospective reference theory, we extend these characteristics by biased processing of probabilistic information. Finally, we reveal that Allais-type behavior is linked to risk-related characteristics, such as risk tolerance and optimism. This indicates a potential problem as exactly the more dynamic among the poor tend to make inconsistent decisions under uncertainty.     

Agreement and discrepancy between children,parents, and social workers on school‐based effort avoidance in child welfare services

A multiperspective approach is beneficial for obtaining reliable and multifaceted pictures of child behaviour problems. The goal of the present study is to examine interrater agreement on school‐based effort avoidance between children receiving child welfare services, parents, and social workers. Given previous findings, interrater agreement is expected to be low. Self‐reported data on school‐based effort avoidance were gathered for children and adolescents in child welfare services. Additionally, social workers (using the Teacher‐Report Checklist for social and learning behaviour) and parents (using the parallel version of the self‐rating questionnaire on school‐based effort avoidance) were asked to complete an external assessment tool to compare children's perspectives with the ratings of significant adults. The results confirmed significant discrepancies between parents' and children's ratings on effort avoidance tendencies. Furthermore, there were only small to moderate correlations between children's self‐ratings and the adults' assessments; however, the consensus between adults was higher than the interrater agreement between children and social workers. Discrepancies in ratings from multiple informants underline the importance of integrating multiple perspectives, especially children's perspectives, in the diagnostic process in order to plan and adapt appropriate care and treatment.     

Psychosocial Well-Being of Young People Who Participated in a Support Group Following the Loss of a Parent to Cancer

Despite the evidence of unmet support needs among young people who have lost a parent to cancer, only a few support group initiatives have been reported. This observational prospective study explored the psychosocial well-being of young people who participated in support groups at a Swedish specialist palliative care setting. On three occasions, 29 participants, aged 16–28 years, answered questionnaires covering characteristics of the participants, circumstances of the losses, psychosocial well-being of the young people, and their own assessment of the support groups. The support groups attracted mostly young women who were often unprepared for the loss. The living arrangements differed between younger and older participants; however, the loss-related variables did not differ. Significant positive changes were found regarding a sense of meaning in their future life and life satisfaction. The helpfulness of the group was assessed as high/very high and the group brought a valuable fellowship with others in a similar situation. Universality and beneficial interactions were reported and strengthened psychosocial well-being developed over time. This change, according to the young people themselves, may be attributed to the group support. The findings are useful for planning interventions to support young people in bereavement in order to enhance their psychosocial well-being.     

The association between social support networks and maternal employment: a comparison of western German,eastern German,and migrant mothers of preschool-aged children

A lack of adequate childcare can delay mothers’ return to the labor market after childbirth. This paper examines whether social support with childcare by kin and friends facilitates maternal employment in the first 72 months after childbirth. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) 1993–2009, a comparison of natives (n?=?1409) and migrants (n?=?411) in corporative-conservative western Germany with mothers in former socialist eastern Germany (n?=?528) shows that kinship support is positively associated with maternal employment when public childcare is limited. Western German and migrant mothers return to work sooner if they are surrounded by kin. But kin do not provide support for maternal employment in eastern Germany, where public childcare is more easily accessible and continuous female employment is a prevalent social norm. Friendship networks, by contrast, are most valuable for maternal employment if they complement public childcare.     

Caring is not enough: the importance of Internet skills for online privacy protection

This article explains Internet users’ self-help activities in protecting their privacy online using structural equation modeling. Based on a representative survey of Swiss Internet users, it reveals past experiences with privacy breaches as a strong predictor of current protective behavior. Further, in line with the ‘privacy paradox’ argument, caring about privacy (privacy attitudes) alone does not necessarily result in substantial self-protection. Most strikingly, however, general Internet skills are key in explaining users’ privacy behavior. These skills enable users to reduce risks of privacy loss while obtaining the benefits from online activities that increasingly depend on the revelation of personal data. Consequently, Internet skills are an essential starting point for public policies regarding users’ self-help in privacy protection.     

The effects of perceived quality of organizationally provided meal service on employees’ job performance and mediating role of organizational identification

Contemporary managers are developing alternative ways to sustain their competitive advantages. Motivation-enhancing features such as high-quality meal service provided by organizations can be thought of as one of these methods. The effect of the perceived quality of meal service provided by organizations on the job performance of employees and the mediating role of organizational identification during this process is studied. Private security-sector employees working in Turkey (N?=?597) are being focused in this study. As a result of analyses (correlation and regression analyses, structural equation model), the authors find that the perceived quality of meal service provided by organizations improves employees’ job performance significantly and organizational identification has a partial mediating role on this association. The findings of this study will be of interest to key stakeholders such as public or private organizations, labor unions and the media.     

‘I Want to Persuade You!’ – Investigating the effectiveness of explicit persuasion concerning attributes of the communicator and the marketing campaign

In explicit persuasion, the communicator states explicitly a desire to persuade the consumer. By referring to an attributional approach, social engagement was simultaneously explored as a beneficial communicator attribute, while cause-related marketing (CRM) was addressed as a boundary condition. In an experiment, we varied the persuasion strategy (explicit vs. implicit), the communicator’s prior experience with social engagement (yes vs. no), and the specific marketing strategy (CRM vs. non-charity marketing). As expected, in the non-charity marketing condition, explicit (vs. implicit) persuasion was more effective when the communicator had prior experience in social engagement. In the CRM condition, explicit (vs. implicit) persuasion was less effective when the communicator had prior experience in social engagement; when no prior experience was reported, persuasiveness increased.