Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P-Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

A wide range of uncertainties will be introduced inevitably during the process of performing a safety assessment of engineering systems. The impact of all these uncertainties must be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. Uncertainties present in the components (input parameters of model or basic events) of model output are propagated to quantify its impact in the final results. There are several methods available in the literature, namely, method of moments, discrete probability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, and Dempster-Shafer theory. All the methods are different in terms of characterizing at the component level and also in propagating to the system level. All these methods have different desirable and undesirable features, making them more or less useful in different situations. In the probabilistic framework, which is most widely used, probability distribution is used to characterize uncertainty. However, in situations in which one cannot specify (1) parameter values for input distributions, (2) precise probability distributions (shape), and (3) dependencies between input parameters, these methods have limitations and are found to be not effective. In order to address some of these limitations, the article presents uncertainty analysis in the context of level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) based on a probability bounds (PB) approach. PB analysis combines probability theory and interval arithmetic to produce probability boxes (p-boxes), structures that allow the comprehensive propagation through calculation in a rigorous way. A practical case study is also carried out with the developed code based on the PB approach and compared with the two-phase Monte Carlo simulation results.     

中国医药高技术产业及其市场资源配置的态势分析

本文在论述了医药产业作为高技术产业所具有的高技术、高投入、高风险以及相对垄断性等特征之后,分析了我国医药市场的营销概况和医药企业的发展现状,对比了我国与发达国家的医药企业在经济规模、市场营销和研究开发（R&D）投入方面所存在的差距 , 提出我国在加入WTO后医药产业对所面临挑战的对策。     

股权比例、过度担保与隐蔽掏空——来自我国上市公司对子公司担保的证据

本文借鉴LLSv的掏空模型,模型化推导了控股股东对上市公司的隐蔽掏空模式,建立了控股股东持股比例与掏空程度的分段函数关系.以2004年我国沪深A股上市公司对子公司担保的386起事件为样本,并把样本分为过度担保组和适度担保组,运用事件研究法进行实证检验.发现过度担保样本组累计超额收益率显著为负,而适度担保组的市场反应为正但不显著,由此推测过度担保的上市公司具有向控股股东输送利益的倾向.多元回归结果表明,对于第一大股东持股比例和国家持股比例的回归系数而言,60%均是其有效的临界点.当大股东持股比例低于60%时,大股东存在通过上市公司对子公司担保的方式掏空上市公司的现象,但回归系数不显著;当持股比例高于60%时,则产生了显著的利益协调效应.能有效地抑制掏空.通过分类变量和股权临界变量的多种组合,回归发现,国有性质的上市公司被控股股东掏空程度更高;与第一大股东持股比例变量相比.国家持股比例变量的股权临界值对CAR的影响更加显著.     

平稳，增长，何者更重要？

 依据Lucas（1987）的理论模型,本文探讨了改革前后中国经济波动与经济增长的福利成本,结果发现：改革前的经济波动不是很重要;但从改革后或整个样本区间看,在合意的参数情况下,中国经济额外增长1%的福利收益要小于消除经济波动的福利成本。这意味着宏观经济波动对中国有着重要意义,中国政府应在保持经济增长的同时,更应关注保持经济的平稳性。     

Some count-based nonparametric tests for circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution

In this paper, we revisit the problem of testing of the hypothesis of circular symmetry of a bivariate distribution. We propose some nonparametric tests based on sector counts. These include tests based on chi-square goodness-of-fit test, the classical likelihood ratio, mean deviation, and the range. The proposed tests are easy to implement and the exact null distributions for small sample sizes of the test statistics are obtained. Two examples with small and large data sets are given to illustrate the application of the tests proposed. For small and moderate sample sizes, the performances of the proposed tests are evaluated using empirical powers (empirical sizes are also reported). Also, we evaluate the performance of these count-based tests with adaptations of several well-known tests such as the Kolmogorov–Smirnov-type tests, tests based on kernel density estimator, and the Wilcoxon-type tests. It is observed that among the count-based tests the likelihood ratio test performs better.     

学生网络道德教育的内容设计和途径选择

学生网民已经成为中国互联网最大的用户群体,新形势下如何做好学生网络道德教育工作是值得深思的重大课题。本文对学生网络道德教育的内容进行了创新设计,提出了TBK网络道德教育架构,并探究了增强学生网络道德教育实效性的途径。     

Testofen,a specialised Trigonella foenum-graecum seed extract reduces age-related symptoms of androgen decrease,increases testosterone levels and improves sexual function in healthy aging males in a double-blind randomised clinical study

This study examined the effect of Testofen, a specialised Trigonella foenum-graecum seed extract on the symptoms of possible androgen deficiency, sexual function and serum androgen concentrations in healthy aging males. This was a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial involving 120 healthy men aged between 43 and 70 years of age. The active treatment was standardised Trigonella foenum-graecum seed extract at a dose of 600?mg/day for 12 weeks. The primary outcome measure was the change in the Aging Male Symptom questionnaire (AMS), a measure of possible androgen deficiency symptoms; secondary outcome measures were sexual function and serum testosterone. There was a significant decrease in AMS score over time and between the active and placebo groups. Sexual function improved, including number of morning erections and frequency of sexual activity. Both total serum testosterone and free testosterone increased compared to placebo after 12 weeks of active treatment. Trigonella foenum-graecum seed extract is a safe and effective treatment for reducing symptoms of possible androgen deficiency, improves sexual function and increases serum testosterone in healthy middle-aged and older men.     

Social Activity,School-related Activity,and Anti–substance Use: Media Messages on Adolescent Tobacco and Alcohol Use

In this article, we present the effects of three hypothesized protective factors—social activities, school-related activities, and anti–substance use media messages—on adolescent tobacco and alcohol use. Data were drawn from the “Monitoring the Future” research project, which was conducted by the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan. The sample included 2,551 twelfth-grade students. The results of the structural equation model showed that exposure to media anti-drug messages had an indirect negative effect on tobacco and alcohol use through school-related activity and social activity. The results suggest that comprehensive ecological interventions encompassing media, family, and school can increase the preventive effects of adolescent's substance use.