以现代服务业推动龙城经济快速发展

龙城区1984年建区,2009年初,朝阳市委、市政府在龙城区和开发区基础上组建了龙城新区(朝阳市西部产业新区)。新区总面积704.2平方公里,其中核心区100平方公里,起步区60平方公里;总人口23万,其中农业人口15.35万;耕地面积30万亩。新区下辖5个园区、6个乡镇、6个街道,18个社区、69个行政村。     

Moment‐Independent Sensitivity Analysis Using Copula

In risk assessment, the moment‐independent sensitivity analysis (SA) technique for reducing the model uncertainty has attracted a great deal of attention from analysts and practitioners. It aims at measuring the relative importance of an individual input, or a set of inputs, in determining the uncertainty of model output by looking at the entire distribution range of model output. In this article, along the lines of Plischke et al., we point out that the original moment‐independent SA index (also called delta index) can also be interpreted as the dependence measure between model output and input variables, and introduce another moment‐independent SA index (called extended delta index) based on copula. Then, nonparametric methods for estimating the delta and extended delta indices are proposed. Both methods need only a set of samples to compute all the indices; thus, they conquer the problem of the “curse of dimensionality.” At last, an analytical test example, a risk assessment model, and the levelE model are employed for comparing the delta and the extended delta indices and testing the two calculation methods. Results show that the delta and the extended delta indices produce the same importance ranking in these three test examples. It is also shown that these two proposed calculation methods dramatically reduce the computational burden.     

铁路事故调查法律制度的建构及反思

《现代汉语词典》将"事故"解释为"意外的损失或灾祸",①事故风险可以被削减,但很难被消除。2011年7月23日,在甬温线浙江省温州市境内,由北京南站开往福州站的D301次列车与杭州站开往福州南站的D3115次列车发生动车组列车追尾事故,造成40人死亡、172人受伤。笔者在此试图探讨,在7.23动车事故调查过程     

An Extended Single‐index Model with Missing Response at Random

An extended single‐index model is considered when responses are missing at random. A three‐step estimation procedure is developed to define an estimator for the single‐index parameter vector by a joint estimating equation. The proposed estimator is shown to be asymptotically normal. An algorithm for computing this estimator is proposed. This algorithm only involves one‐dimensional nonparametric smoothers, thereby avoiding the data sparsity problem caused by high model dimensionality. Some simulation studies are conducted to investigate the finite sample performances of the proposed estimators.     

Quadratic Approximation via the SCAD Penalty with a Diverging Number of Parameters

The high-dimensional data arises in diverse fields of sciences, engineering and humanities. Variable selection plays an important role in dealing with high dimensional statistical modelling. In this article, we study the variable selection of quadratic approximation via the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty with a diverging number of parameters. We provide a unified method to select variables and estimate parameters for various of high dimensional models. Under appropriate conditions and with a proper regularization parameter, we show that the estimator has consistency and sparsity, and the estimators of nonzero coefficients enjoy the asymptotic normality as they would have if the zero coefficients were known in advance. In addition, under some mild conditions, we can obtain the global solution of the penalized objective function with the SCAD penalty. Numerical studies and a real data analysis are carried out to confirm the performance of the proposed method.     

近代中国铁路货等运价制度变迁初探(1915—1937)

由于货等运价制度直接与铁路营业收入挂钩,因此成为铁路运营管理制度的核心内容之一。1915年之后,在交通部(铁道部)和各铁路管理局(监督局)的共同努力下,以货物分等、递远递减、普通货物基本运价、专价和特价制度为主要内容的铁路货等运价制度逐渐走向统一。尽管这一过程在1937年前并未最终完成,但其变迁仍然对铁路运输业和沿线部分城镇的发展产生了重要的影响。     

非洲国家发展特征的三个维度及其本质——以撒哈拉以南非洲国家为考察中心

在撒哈拉以南非洲国家发展进程中,非洲社会传统特质与外部世界影响的交互作用,导致了按照西式民族国家模式构建的非洲国家在发展进程中受挫。它们大多处于"前民族国家"发展阶段。这些"前民族国家"虽然具备法理主权,但却缺乏经验主权。它们是在构建"民族国家"过程中,将早期非洲的国家机构与非国家组织等融为一体所形成的产物。这些国家具有一种以"新家长制"为特点的前现代性特征,使国家权威及认同下移至家族、氏族、部落、宗教群体、地域性社群等。同时,这些国家还维持着现代民族国家的外壳,以及由非洲地区一体化所促成的"地区国际社会"。不过,现代国家与后现代国际体系都只是法理主权架构下的表象,这使得非洲国家之间的竞争压力在消解的同时,也被其内外的各种非国家行为体所消解。     

汉代统治阶层对民间信仰的限制和引导

汉代民间的鬼神祭祀并非单纯地以祈福禳灾为目的,它还包含有以祝诅等巫术伤害他人,被伤害者甚至有可能是最高统治阶层。祭祀中害人巫术的存在,无疑会对社会治安、统治阶层本身乃至统治秩序的正常运行造成影响。面对这样的挑战,汉代的统治阶层设立严刑峻法、设置祠祝官进行抵御;而统治阶层中的知识分子将先秦以来限制祭祀规模的传统理念用于现实政治,致力于革新鬼神观念、宣扬"淫祀无福",试图在思想上对民众进行引导。     

Do resources of network members help in help seeking? Social capital and health information search

Does social capital as resources of network members affect health information search? Analyzing data from the 2004 General Social Survey in the United States, this study measures two social capital indicators (average education of network members and proportion of network members with a high school degree or higher) using the name generator. Most results are consistent using those two indicators. Both indicators are positively associated with frequency of health information seeking and seekers’ frequency of use of two sources (friends or relatives and the Internet). Also average education of network members is positively associated with seekers’ diversity of used sources and frequency of consultation with medical professionals. But neither indicator is associated with seekers’ frequency of use of other four sources (health-related magazines or newsletters, general magazines, daily newspapers, and radio or television programs). The findings demonstrate the theoretical utility of social capital in the social dynamics of medical help-seeking.     

Communicating Conservation Status: How Different Statistical Assessment Criteria Affect Perceptions of Extinction Risk

Although alternative forms of statistical and verbal information are routinely used to convey species’ extinction risk to policymakers and the public, little is known about their effects on audience information processing and risk perceptions. To address this gap in literature, we report on an experiment that was designed to explore how perceptions of extinction risk differ as a function of five different assessment benchmarks (Criteria A–E) used by scientists to classify species within IUCN Red List risk levels (e.g., Critically Endangered, Vulnerable), as well as the role of key individual differences in these effects (e.g., rational and experiential thinking styles, environmental concern). Despite their normative equivalence within the IUCN classification system, results revealed divergent effects of specific assessment criteria: on average, describing extinction risk in terms of proportional population decline over time (Criterion A) and number of remaining individuals (Criterion D) evoked the highest level of perceived risk, whereas the single‐event probability of a species becoming extinct (Criterion E) engendered the least perceived risk. Furthermore, participants scoring high in rationality (analytic thinking) were less prone to exhibit these biases compared to those low in rationality. Our findings suggest that despite their equivalence in the eyes of scientific experts, IUCN criteria are indeed capable of engendering different levels of risk perception among lay audiences, effects that carry direct and important implications for those tasked with communicating about conservation status to diverse publics.