Caring for elderly parents and adult children living at home: interactions of the Sandwich Generation family

The study presented here analyzed the patterns of demands made on 66 middle-aged women by their elderly parents and their adult children who were living at home. Factor analyses of the reports of family interactions revealed the presence of five adult children-middle-aged parents interaction factors and four elderly parents-middle-aged parents interactions. These patterns were considerably more complex than previous studies of the Sandwich Generation suggested. As expected, socioeconomic status and health of the elderly parents were related to these family interaction factors.     

An efficient computational approach for prior sensitivity analysis and cross‐validation

Prior sensitivity analysis and cross‐validation are important tools in Bayesian statistics. However, due to the computational expense of implementing existing methods, these techniques are rarely used. In this paper, the authors show how it is possible to use sequential Monte Carlo methods to create an efficient and automated algorithm to perform these tasks. They apply the algorithm to the computation of regularization path plots and to assess the sensitivity of the tuning parameter in g‐prior model selection. They then demonstrate the algorithm in a cross‐validation context and use it to select the shrinkage parameter in Bayesian regression. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:47–64; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Will Direct Payments Make Adult Residential Care more Personalized? Views and Experiences of Social Care Staff in the Direct Payments in Residential Care Trailblazers

Direct payments, i.e. cash payments made directly to the individual in lieu of social care services, have become an established option in council‐funded domiciliary care as a means to better personalize care and support. As part of its agenda to modernize social care, the Government tested their use in long‐term residential care in 18 trailblazing councils in England. This article presents findings from the independent evaluation of this initiative, using interviews with project leads seconded to the programme in all participating councils, and with council and care home staff involved in implementing direct payments in residential care in five sites. Interviews were conducted between September 2014 and November 2015. They explored professionals' views and experiences of personalization in residential care and their thoughts on the potential contribution of direct payments to promoting personalization. Whilst there was agreement that good care takes personal preferences into account and that many care homes could provide a more personalized service, doubts were voiced about whether direct payments were an appropriate mechanism to achieve this aim. This was seen as particularly pertinent in relation to residents with very high care needs and limited capacity to exercise choice and control. Interviewees also identified a number of risks and challenges to implementation, including financial risks to care homes. The findings from these interviews suggest that the contribution of direct payments to personalizing residential care may be more modest than expected.     

Climate Mobility and Development Cooperation

Population and Environment - Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More...     

The effects of high HIV prevalence on orphanhood and living arrangements of children in Malawi, Tanzania, and South Africa

Using longitudinal data from three demographic surveillance systems (DSS) and a retrospective cohort study, we estimate levels and trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi in the period 1988-2004. The prevalence of maternal, paternal, and double orphans rose in all three populations. In South Africa - where the HIV epidemic started later, has been very severe, and has not yet stabilized - the incidence of orphanhood among children is double that of the other populations. The living arrangements of children vary considerably between the populations, particularly in relation to fathers. Patterns of marriage, migration, and adult mortality influence the living and care arrangements of orphans and non-orphans. DSS data provide new insights into the impact of adult mortality on children, challenging several widely held assumptions. For example, we find no evidence that the prevalence of child-headed households is significant or has increased in the three study areas.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of the Massachusetts workforce development system using no-shows as a nonexperimental comparison group

This article examines the effect of the Massachusetts workforce development system on the earnings of disadvantaged adults using nonexperimental data from the late 1990s. The authors construct a comparison sample for program participants using individuals who apply for and are offered services yet do not participate in a training program. They present a series of difference-in-difference estimates that make several alternative efforts to correct for selectivity bias, including econometric models that regression adjust for observable characteristics and fixed-effect models that adjust for time-invariant person effects. They also employ probabilistic matching techniques to more finely align the treatment and comparison samples. On average, program participants experienced 20% increases in annual earnings 1 year postintervention and 25% increases after 2 years. The authors uncover considerable heterogeneity in these effects, suggesting that the most difficult to serve and the most job ready benefit the least.     

Bayesian robust transformation and variable selection: A unified approach

The authors consider the problem of simultaneous transformation and variable selection for linear regression. They propose a fully Bayesian solution to the problem, which allows averaging over all models considered including transformations of the response and predictors. The authors use the Box‐Cox family of transformations to transform the response and each predictor. To deal with the change of scale induced by the transformations, the authors propose to focus on new quantities rather than the estimated regression coefficients. These quantities, referred to as generalized regression coefficients, have a similar interpretation to the usual regression coefficients on the original scale of the data, but do not depend on the transformations. This allows probabilistic statements about the size of the effect associated with each variable, on the original scale of the data. In addition to variable and transformation selection, there is also uncertainty involved in the identification of outliers in regression. Thus, the authors also propose a more robust model to account for such outliers based on a t‐distribution with unknown degrees of freedom. Parameter estimation is carried out using an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which permits moves around the space of all possible models. Using three real data sets and a simulated study, the authors show that there is considerable uncertainty about variable selection, choice of transformation, and outlier identification, and that there is advantage in dealing with all three simultaneously. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 361–380; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Using fractionalization indexes: deriving methodological principles for growth studies from time series evidence

Recent cross-country growth studies have found that ethnolinguistic fractionalization is an important explanatory variable of long-run growth performance. This paper highlights some limitations of cross-country studies by focusing on the time series evidence for South Africa. In presenting variation over time in a number of social dimensions, this paper adds longitudinal evidence on a range of dimensions that have been linked to long run economic development. Given South Africa’s history of ethnic and racial politics, it constitutes a useful case study to explore the dynamics of the possible effects of ethnolinguistic fractionalization on growth. We introduce several new sets of fractionalization indicators for South Africa: ethnolinguistic, religious and cultural fractionalization, and a polarization measure. The results of this study provide important nuance to the existing body of evidence, for the use of fractionalization indices in growth studies.