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101.
102.
We develop a method to correct for non-random measurement error in a binary indicator of illicit drugs. Our results suggest that estimates of the effect of self-reported prenatal drug use on birth weight are biased upwards by measurement error—a finding contrary to predictions of a model of random measurement error. More accurate estimates of the true effect of drug use on birth weight can be obtained by using the predicted probability of falsely reporting drug use. Thus out-of-sample information on drug use may improve estimates of the effect of reported drug use in other settings.  相似文献   
103.
104.
Recent legislative and regulatory activities at the federal level have focused attention on the highway routing of hazardous materials. The question is whether routes that minimize the risk of release accidents (i.e., the expected number of persons impacted by releases of hazardous materials) should be used in lieu of the routes that have the lowest operating costs. This policy issue is addressed for interstate shipments by using a national network model to determine the practical route and minimum risk route between each of 100 different origin-destination pairs (state capitals). The resulting cost-risk tradeoffs are then used to estimate the average cost of rerouting per fatality averted, the value of which turns out to be within the range of values for a number of familiar existing regulations.  相似文献   
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106.
Humans tend to exhibit rather consistent biases when cognitively processing information. In a gaming environment, these biases can affect participation in games of chance. The availability bias reduces complex probalistic judgments to simpler ones through the ease to which relevant instances can be brought to mind. The representativeness bias improperly attributes characteristics to an entity or process based on evidence received in a limited setting. Biasing factors appear to be affected by individual differences and situational factors. The effect on gambling may manifest itself in terms of duration of play, money played, and satisfaction or dissatisfaction with play. Implications for treatment of pathological gamblers are discussed.  相似文献   
107.
Pregnancy wantedness and the early initiation of prenatal care   总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6  
The study examines the impact of the wantedness of a pregnancy on the demand for early prenatal care. Using a cohort of pregnant women in New York City, we estimate a prenatal care demand function in which we control for the probability of giving birth, given a woman is pregnant. We interpret this control as a measure of wantedness. The results indicate that if the black and Hispanic women who aborted had instead given birth, they would have delayed the initiation of prenatal care, on average, more than three-quarters of a month longer than the mean number of months of delay that were actually observed for the women who gave birth. By allowing women to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, induced abortion increases the average use of prenatal care among black and Hispanic women relative to what would have been observed if the women who aborted had instead given birth.  相似文献   
108.
This paper examines the extent to which patterns of public opinion between Blacks and Whites have converged, diverged, or remained constant since the late1970s. It explores how trends in public opinion reflect a decline in the role of race in the formation of pubic opinion. The findings show a slight convergence of public opinion between Blacks and Whites on some issues and stabilization on others depending of the nature of the issue. The data also showed that the magnitude of difference on most issues, other than those related to race, rarely constituted anything more than a gap in public opinion and not a gulf of chasm. The fact that significant differences continue to exist between Blacks’ and Whites’ public opinions suggest that race is still a significant indicator of opinion position.  相似文献   
109.
In this paper we study the factors altering the probability of migrants to acquire additional on‐the‐job skills while abroad, and the determinants of their earnings level, using a sample of 6120 returned migrants from Bosnia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Romania, and Tadjikistan. We use a two‐stage procedure to estimate a system of two equations where on‐the‐job skills and earnings are determined simultaneously. The probability of acquiring skills on‐the‐job is found to be positively affected by the level of earnings. It is also higher for migrants who are employed in the same sector (pre‐ and during migration), and for migrants with lower initial financial status. Interestingly, the probability is lower for migrants with university education. The earnings level is positively affected by acquired on‐the‐job skills, the level of education, and the duration of migration. Women have lower earnings while those (males and females) who have learned the language of the destination country have higher earnings. The country variables are statistically significant in all cases but one, indicating that there are differences in the acquisition of skills and earnings reflecting unspecified differences among the countries of origin.  相似文献   
110.
This paper has analyzed a theoretical model of mobility decision-making. The model relies entirely on individual-level factors rather than macro-level factors as determinants of migration decision-making. The individual-level variables included in the model are: recent mobility history, urban social contacts, information about urban areas, evaluations of different locations, migration plans, and actual movements in the period subsequent to an initial interview. The empirical results indicate that with some exceptions there are relatively strong links of the type suggested in the model among these variables. The model was evaluated separately for two groups of villages for movement to Bangkok and for movement to Northeast Thai towns. Thus, four submodels were estimated, providing an opportunity to observe how robust the model is with respect to varying destinations and origins. Although certain differences are found among the four submodels, the overwhelming feature is their similarity. Where differences do exist, they generally reflect differences in the effectiveness of prior mobility as a predictor of other variables in the process. Clearly, a villager's previous history of movement is a key factor affecting subsequent movement and the entire decision-making process. The primary effect of having friends and relatives in a particular urban center is to increase the amount of information a villager has about that urban center. Information has a significant effect on evaluations and plans. Except in one submodel, evaluations have a significant effect on plans; and the existence of plans--which to some extent represent a culmination of social contacts, information, and evaluations--is the only factor other than previous mobility which has a significant direct effect on subsequent movement. Thai policy makers are searching for ways to stimulate the growth of regional urban growth centers and reduce the growth of Bangkok. From the standpoint of intervention, a key variable in this process would appear to be information. Not only is information level related to evaluations of an urban area and mobility plans, but, compared to other variables in the model, it appears to be relatively amenable to modification by inputs deriving from a source external to the village itself. It appears difficult to modify evaluations or migration plans directly, though both could be indirectly influenced by informational inputs. Movement history would be difficult, if not impossible, to manipulate; while villagers could be sponsored for short trips to town, this is not likely to produce much long-range effect.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)  相似文献   
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