The structural perspective on postsocialist inequality: Job loss in Russia

The paper seeks to develop a structural approach to understanding post-socialist patterns of inequality, in distinction to the individual and institutional frameworks that have dominated the literature on the topic. Variation in exposure to job loss (layoff) of Russian hired workers from 1985 to 2001 is examined using employment histories from the Survey of Stratification and Migration Dynamics. The analysis focuses on the role of structural position (firm characteristics such as sector, industry, and size) in shaping job loss risk, both independently of individual characteristics such as experience, gender, and human capital and in interaction with these personal traits.     

Efficient $$\hbox {SMC}^2$$ schemes for stochastic kinetic models

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed-data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of pseudo-marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for such models. However, these methods are typically computationally intensive, often require careful tuning and must be restarted from scratch upon receipt of new observations. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods on the other hand aim to efficiently reuse posterior samples at each time point. Despite their appeal, applying SMC schemes in scenarios with both dynamic states and static parameters is made difficult by the problem of particle degeneracy. A principled approach for overcoming this problem is to move each parameter particle through a Metropolis-Hastings kernel that leaves the target invariant. This rejuvenation step is key to a recently proposed \(\hbox {SMC}^2\) algorithm, which can be seen as the pseudo-marginal analogue of an idealised scheme known as iterated batch importance sampling. Computing the parameter weights in \(\hbox {SMC}^2\) requires running a particle filter over dynamic states to unbiasedly estimate the intractable observed-data likelihood up to the current time point. In this paper, we propose to use an auxiliary particle filter inside the \(\hbox {SMC}^2\) scheme. Our method uses two recently proposed constructs for sampling conditioned jump processes, and we find that the resulting inference schemes typically require fewer state particles than when using a simple bootstrap filter. Using two applications, we compare the performance of the proposed approach with various competing methods, including two global MCMC schemes.     

A conceptual model of gambling behavior: Fishbein's Theory of Reasoned Action

The Theory of Reasoned Action holds that behavior is rational and is dependent on the individual's analysis of available information. With this view, gambling activities can be explained in terms of gambling attitudes and subjective norms. This is a departure from the more traditional lines of research that examine the influence of demographic and selected personality variables on gambling behavior. According to the Theory of Reasoned Action, these variables could influence gambling behavior, but only to the extent that they affect attitudes, subjective norms, or both.     

Emile Durkheim and the Division of Labor

Although the concept of the division of labor is appropriately and irrevocably associated with Durkheim, the division of labor plays a somewhat lesser role in Durkheim's thinking than is sometimes believed. He, in fact, relegates it to secondary status as a form of social organization, and his position is used to legitimate a sociology that looks to explanation by means of beliefs, sentiments, and values. But there are available data which cast doubt on some portions of Durkheim's argument concerning the secondary nature of the division of labor, and a close examination of Durkheim's analysis of the division of labor raises serious doubts about the logical adequacy of his position.     

A Methodology for Estimating Time-of-Day Variations in the Size of a Population Exposed to Risk

Consequence models for the risk assessment of man-made or natural disasters do not ordinarily take into account time-of-day variations in the size of the exposed population. Residential census population statistics are used instead. This paper proposes and illustrates a methodology for using metropolitan travel survey data to estimate the variations in question. Variations are computed from the Washington, D.C. area sample survey statistics on the number of trips taken in and out of different census tracts throughout each workday. Four principal patterns of population variation are identified, corresponding to four types of land use: commercial, residential, shopping/entertainment, and mixed use. Some general implications for consequence analysis are discussed.     

School dropouts—They are not what they seem to be

Twenty-one ninth grade students at Carrigan Middle School identified as potential dropouts were divided into three equal groups, two experimental (GI and GII) and one control (GIII). The experimental groups were enrolled in the Positive Learning Program (PLP), a supportive program for potential dropouts. All groups were academically profiled for the past five years. All Ss retained their original major classes and teachers. The experimental groups, however, reported to the PLP teacher for homeroom and study. During these periods the students received academic and social support. Academics, attendance, and behavior were measured over three marking periods. The results showed significant improvement in academic performance. Although significance was not realized for attendance and behavior, there was a significant interaction indicating a change over time. It was also found that profiling could be used as a measure to identify potential dropouts.     

Nonmarital Childbearing in Russia: Second Demographic Transition or Pattern of Disadvantage?

Using retrospective union, birth, and education histories that span 1980–2003, this study investigates nonmarital childbearing in contemporary Russia. We employ a combination of methods to decompose fertility rates by union status and analyze the processes that lead to a nonmarital birth. We find that the increase in the percentage of nonmarital births was driven mainly by the growing proportion of women who cohabit before conception, not changing fertility behavior of cohabitors or changes in union behavior after conception. The relationship between education and nonmarital childbearing has remained stable: the least-educated women have the highest birth rates within cohabitation and as single mothers, primarily because of their lower probability of legitimating a nonmarital conception. These findings suggest that nonmarital childbearing Russia has more in common with the pattern of disadvantage in the United States than with the second demographic transition. We also find several aspects of nonmarital childbearing that neither of these perspectives anticipates.     

Spillover in the Home: The Effects of Family Conflict on Parents' Behavior

Conflict with a spouse or child may generate spillover, defined as short‐term affective changes in parents that affect their behavior with other family members. In a diverse sample of 86 parents, this 56‐day diary study examined daily bidirectional spillover between conflict in the marital or parent–child dyad and parents' irritable, frictional behavior with their child or spouse, respectively. Tests of daily associations between conflict and parent behavior revealed robust spillover effects according to parent as well as spouse and child reports. Parents' daily negative mood and child externalizing behavior contributed to several but not all of these associations. Daily spillover findings were largely unaffected by parents' neuroticism, suggesting that parents' day‐to‐day fluctuations in negative mood, not average levels of negative affectivity, promoted spillover. Significant direct effects of conflict on parent behavior even when controlling for negative mood, however, implicate additional cognitive or social processes as contributors to conflict spillover in families.     

A Case Study of the Application of SAMR and TPACK for Reflection on Technology Integration into Two Social Studies Classrooms

As emerging technology continues to enter the social studies classroom, teachers need to approach integration of such technology in a systematic manner to ensure that such technology enhances the learning of their students. Currently, scholars of technology integration advocate for the use of one of two different models, either SAMR or TPACK. This article makes use of a case study process to document a yearlong integration of iPad carts into two neighboring social studies classrooms, as examined through both the SAMR and TPACK lenses. The results provide insights for future social studies teachers and departments wishing to effectively integrate technology into their classrooms.