Scrutinising the double disadvantage: knowledge production in the messy field of migrant smuggling

Human smuggling is a global phenomenon which has been difficult to research. Even though there is a large and growing literature on human smuggling, it lacks a systematic review of the major theoretical and conceptual approaches. Besides the lack of conceptual cohesion, there is fundamental lack of hard evidence to substantiate most aspects of the smuggling process because of methodological challenges. This ‘double disadvantage’ is an important explanation for theoretical as well as conceptual discrepancies in existing smuggling studies. In order to clarify and understand the diversity of theoretical approaches within the field of smuggling this article provides an overview of various readings of the literature. We identify a need to better understand how our knowledge about smuggling is constructed in this messy field. Furthermore, we question why we are producing particular types of knowledge and argue for more critical work in the field of human smuggling.     

Correlation neglect and case-based decisions

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - In most theories of choice under uncertainty, decision-makers are assumed to evaluate acts in terms of subjective values attributed to consequences and...     

Rural-urban mobility in Thailand: A decision-making approach

This paper has analyzed a theoretical model of mobility decision-making. The model relies entirely on individual-level factors rather than macro-level factors as determinants of migration decision-making. The individual-level variables included in the model are: recent mobility history, urban social contacts, information about urban areas, evaluations of different locations, migration plans, and actual movements in the period subsequent to an initial interview. The empirical results indicate that with some exceptions there are relatively strong links of the type suggested in the model among these variables. The model was evaluated separately for two groups of villages for movement to Bangkok and for movement to Northeast Thai towns. Thus, four submodels were estimated, providing an opportunity to observe how robust the model is with respect to varying destinations and origins. Although certain differences are found among the four submodels, the overwhelming feature is their similarity. Where differences do exist, they generally reflect differences in the effectiveness of prior mobility as a predictor of other variables in the process. Clearly, a villager's previous history of movement is a key factor affecting subsequent movement and the entire decision-making process. The primary effect of having friends and relatives in a particular urban center is to increase the amount of information a villager has about that urban center. Information has a significant effect on evaluations and plans. Except in one submodel, evaluations have a significant effect on plans; and the existence of plans--which to some extent represent a culmination of social contacts, information, and evaluations--is the only factor other than previous mobility which has a significant direct effect on subsequent movement. Thai policy makers are searching for ways to stimulate the growth of regional urban growth centers and reduce the growth of Bangkok. From the standpoint of intervention, a key variable in this process would appear to be information. Not only is information level related to evaluations of an urban area and mobility plans, but, compared to other variables in the model, it appears to be relatively amenable to modification by inputs deriving from a source external to the village itself. It appears difficult to modify evaluations or migration plans directly, though both could be indirectly influenced by informational inputs. Movement history would be difficult, if not impossible, to manipulate; while villagers could be sponsored for short trips to town, this is not likely to produce much long-range effect.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

The political orientation of Blacks and Whites: Converging,diverging, or remaining constant?

This paper examines the extent to which patterns of public opinion between Blacks and Whites have converged, diverged, or remained constant since the late1970s. It explores how trends in public opinion reflect a decline in the role of race in the formation of pubic opinion. The findings show a slight convergence of public opinion between Blacks and Whites on some issues and stabilization on others depending of the nature of the issue. The data also showed that the magnitude of difference on most issues, other than those related to race, rarely constituted anything more than a gap in public opinion and not a gulf of chasm. The fact that significant differences continue to exist between Blacks’ and Whites’ public opinions suggest that race is still a significant indicator of opinion position.     

Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation

If event history data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by two recent U.S. censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust U.S. age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses.     

A methodology for identifying married couples in medicare data: Mortality, morbidity, and health care use among the married elderly

Wedescribe a method for the development of cohorts of up to three quarters of the 14 million married couples aged 65 and over in the United States. The health care experiences, illness histories, and mortality of these identified couples can be assessed longitudinally using Medicare data. We summarize strengths and limitations of using data from Medicare administrative records for the study of marriage, health, and aging. We illustrate the method by demonstrating substantial differences in survival in a cohort of hospice patients as a function of not only the patient's own diagnosis and illness burden but also the patient's spouse's illness burden.