A UNIFIED FRAMEWORK FOR MODELLING WILDLIFE POPULATION DYNAMICS†

This paper proposes a unified framework for defining and fitting stochastic, discrete‐time, discrete‐stage population dynamics models. The biological system is described by a state‐space model, where the true but unknown state of the population is modelled by a state process, and this is linked to survey data by an observation process. All sources of uncertainty in the inputs, including uncertainty about model specification, are readily incorporated. The paper shows how the state process can be represented as a generalization of the standard Leslie or Lefkovitch matrix. By dividing the state process into subprocesses, complex models can be constructed from manageable building blocks. The paper illustrates the approach with a model of the British grey seal metapopulation, using sequential importance sampling with kernel smoothing to fit the model.     

Perceptions by treatment staff of critical tasks in the treatment of the compulsive gambler

Seventy-five clinicians who treat compulsive gamblers were surveyed. Each rated 89 clinical tasks and responsibilities for importance in the treatment of this population. Analysis of those items for which a plurality of clinicians rated the item as critical was chosen as the criteria of importance. A principal components analysis was conducted to determine the underlying structure of clinical perceptions of importance. An eight-dimensional model was found to describe perceptions in the most satisfactory way. The analysis revealed five major and three minor clusters of tasks and responsibilities. The major dimensions were labeled as (1) self-help/social support, (2) crisis interventions, (3) behavioral resources for change, (4) psychodynamics of treatment, and (5) crisis severity. The minor dimensions were (6) knowledge and training, (7) ethics and sensitivity to needs, and (8) confidentiality and regulations. A brief discussion of the implications are presented.This research was supported in part by a grant from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health.     

Definitions of conflict and the legitimation of resources: The case of environmental risk

This paper examines the social construction of conflict over environmental health and safety issues (i.e., environmental risk). Four explanations for such conflict are commonly offered in the environmental policy literature. We examine the interests served by each. We hypothesize that environmental policy professionals hold definitions of conflict consistent with the values and interests of the organizations for which they work and the professions of which they are members. These definitions enhance the legitimacy of the resources those groups possess in relative abundance. Data from a survey of risk professionals are generally consistent with these hypotheses. We conclude by generalizing beyond environmental conflict to identify ways in which disputes about the nature of a social problem or conflict are often at the same time struggles to determine the value of the resources available to social movements and their opponents.An earlier version of the paper was presented at the 1984 annual meeting of the American Sociological Association. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of George Mason University, George Washington University, or the National Research Council or any of its constituent units.     

A note on the four-colourability of pedigrees and its consequences for probability calculations

A graph representing the probabilistic dependences between genotypes of individuals in a pedigree is shown to be four-colourable. The consequences of this for computation of probabilities, using both exact and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, is discussed. A four-colouring and triangulation of an inbred section of a pedigree of Red-Crowned Cranes is illustrated.     

Uncertainty and the Value of Information with Stochastic Losses from Global Warming

We present an uncertainty analysis conducted using CETA-R, a model in which the costs of climate change are specified as Risks of large losses. In this analysis, we assume that three key parameters may each take on "high" or "low" values, leading to eight possible states of the world. We then explore optimal policies when the state of the world is known, and under uncertainty. Also, we estimate the benefits of resolving uncertainty earlier. We find that the optimal policy under uncertainty is similar to the policy that is optimal when each of the key parameters is at its low value. We also find that the value of immediate uncertainty resolution rises sharply as the alternative to immediate resolution is increasingly delayed resolution.     

Mining for Conflict and Staking Claims: Contested Illness at the Tar Creek Superfund Site

Drawing from extensive fieldwork and document analysis, we examine environmental illness claims in Oklahoma's Tar Creek basin, one of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) premier Superfund sites. Our findings indicate that contested illness in the Tar Creek Superfund site differed from typical cases in that the links between high lead exposures and permanent neurological damage were thoroughly and unequivocally documented. But, despite the certainty of these linkages, residents remained embroiled in controversy and they encountered obstacles in obtaining diagnoses, treatment, and compensation. The resultant environmental dispute took two forms: conflict between residents and EPA officials over the adequacy of the agency's remediation project and conflict among residents over ultimate responsibility for children's lead exposures and consequent learning disabilities.     

From the attic of theAmerican Journal of Sociology: Unusual contributions to American sociology, 1895–1935

This study examines articles published in theAmerican Journal of Sociology (AJS) from its inception in 1895 through 1935 in a search for contributions that have escaped the attention of most contemporary sociologists. The articles reviewed here provide a glimpse of a less well-known, and sometimes more unseemly, side of American sociological history. My primary focus is on the criticism of the emergent discipline, the extraordinary diversity of thought found in the earlyAJS, and antiquated or prescient ideas, particularly in the fields of deviance, race, and gender.     

Reflections on Mathematical Sociology

As a participant in the development of mathematical sociology over the past several decades, the author undertakes a personal and historical review of the field. A special effort is made to link early innovations and interests to recent developments. The paper deals successively with (a) the origins of mathematical sociology and its early achievements, (b) the cognitive interests and values of mathematical sociologists in relation to ideas associated with the founders of sociology, (c) the scope of mathematical contributions in terms of the general components of human action and society, and (d) the problematic specialty status of mathematical sociology. The paper concludes with some thoughts on the future of mathematical sociology.