1979～2000年中国人口生育趋势:出生数据和教育数据的比较分析

本文研究中国从1979年开始提倡一对夫妇只生育一个孩子至2000年第五次人口普查的生育趋势。为此目的,本文对1979~2001年各生育调查数据与国家统计局每年人口变动调查数据进行比较研究。四普、五普的回推数据,中国国家人口计生委报表中的出生数据和公安部户籍中的出生登记也作为比较对象。鉴于材料中的矛盾,本文就分析教育部部门统计中的各种和出生数据有间接关系的记载、讨论它们内在的口径问题和它们所涉及到的工作程序问题。本文在这一基础上用小学在校学龄儿童年龄分组的数据来估计中国1979~1997年的生育水平和其他资料的可靠性。分析暗示出生数据漏报问题普偏存在,自教育数据算出来的生育数据比许多其他资料高。虽然如此,但自1996年以来比国家统计局的修正数字低。结果同时表明,中国1992年以来确实达到了低生育水平。根据教育统计资料计算的1997年的总和生育率为1·6左右。     

Determining the non-inferiority margin for patient reported outcomes

One of the cornerstones of any non-inferiority trial is the choice of the non-inferiority margin delta. This threshold of clinical relevance is very difficult to determine, and in practice, delta is often "negotiated" between the sponsor of the trial and the regulatory agencies. However, for patient reported, or more precisely patient observed outcomes, the patients' minimal clinically important difference (MCID) can be determined empirically by relating the treatment effect, for example, a change on a 100-mm visual analogue scale, to the patient's satisfaction with the change. This MCID can then be used to define delta. We used an anchor-based approach with non-parametric discriminant analysis and ROC analysis and a distribution-based approach with Norman's half standard deviation rule to determine delta in three examples endometriosis-related pelvic pain measured on a 100-mm visual analogue scale, facial acne measured by lesion counts, and hot flush counts. For each of these examples, all three methods yielded quite similar results. In two of the cases, the empirically derived MCIDs were smaller or similar of deltas used before in non-inferiority trials, and in the third case, the empirically derived MCID was used to derive a responder definition that was accepted by the FDA. In conclusion, for patient-observed endpoints, the delta can be derived empirically. In our view, this is a better approach than that of asking the clinician for a "nice round number" for delta, such as 10, 50%, π, e, or i.     

A Unique Solution for the Nucleolus in Accounting Allocations*

The nucleolus method has been suggested in the literature as a means for accounting decision makers to allocate joint costs in situations where entities share a common resource. The nucleolus has the advantage, vis-à-vis other methods, of maximizing the benefit to the least-well-off entity or groups of entities, and therefore reducing the possibility that one or more entities may desire to withdraw from the sharing arrangement. The nucleolus is basically a linear programming model. Because of its formulation, the nucleolus may yield multiple optimal solutions. No reformulation of the nucleolus seems to exist to overcome this problem The minimum total propensity to disrupt (MTPD) is suggested as an extension of the nucleolus to identify unique values for allocations with multiple solutions. The MTPD, while exhibiting deficiencies as a stand-alone method, is similar in overall objective to the nucleolus and its mathematical function possesses a unique minimum. It is therefore the logical method for identifying a unique nucleolus solution. The use of the MTPD extension is critically examined through a representative application.     

Assembly Line Balancing with Resource Dependent Task Times*

Paced assembly lines are widely used in repetitive manufacturing applications. Most previous research on the design of paced lines has assumed that each task along the line can be performed by only one worker (or a fixed number of workers). In many cases, however, task duration times may be reduced by increasing the number of workers or changing the equipment assigned to work stations. Thus, the problem becomes one of assigning resource alternatives (e.g., workers and/or equipment) and tasks to work stations to minimize total cost for a desired production rate. For this problem, we present three procedures. The first formulates the problem as a shortest path problem and guarantees optimality. The second and third are heuristic adaptations of the shortest path procedure that are capable of solving large problems. The procedures are compared in terms of solution quality and computation time on a set of 128 randomly generated problems for which optimal solutions could be found. Our simulation results indicate that the choice of procedure depends on problem complexity and resource costs.     

Sadomasochism and the social sciences: a review of the sociological and social psychological literature

Recent literature about sadomasochism in Sociology and Social Psychology is reviewed. Studies include survey research and questionnaire studies, content analyses, ethnographic research, and critical essays. The current state of our knowledge of sadomasochism, including its defining characteristics, sadomasochistic identities, and sadomasochistic subcultures is briefly summarized.     

Axiomatic Based Decomposition for Conceptual Product Design

This paper describes a structured methodology for decomposing the conceptual design problem in order to facilitate the design process and result in improved conceptual designs that better satisfy the original customer requirements. The axiomatic decomposition for conceptual design method combines Alexander's network partitioning formulation of the design problem with Suh's Independence Axiom. The axiomatic decomposition method uses a cross‐domain approach in a House of Quality context to estimate the interactions among the functional requirements that are derived from a qualitative assessment of customer requirements. These interactions are used in several objective functions that serve as criteria for decomposing the design network. A new network partitioning algorithm is effective in creating partitions that maximize the within‐partition interactions and minimize the between‐partition interactions with appropriate weightings. The viability, usability, and value of the axiomatic decomposition method were examined through analytic comparisons and qualitative assessments of its application. The new method was examined using students in engineering design capstone courses and it was found to be useable and did produce better product designs that met the customer requirements. The student‐based assessment revealed that the process would be more effective with individuals having design experience. In a subsequent assessment with practicing industrial designers, it was found that the new method did facilitate the development of better designs. An important observation was the need for limits on partition size (maximum of four functional requirements.) Another issue identified for future research was the need for a means to identify the appropriate starting partition for initiating the design.     

Evaluating the Deming Management Model of Total Quality in Services*

This article uses the Deming management model developed by Anderson et al. (1994b) as an initial template to analyze total quality in services. While the literatures addressing quality management have developed separately for products and services, the founders of total quality portrayed this management philosophy as universally oriented. Our study first replicates two earlier studies that tested the Deming management model in manufacturing industries. Using hospitals as our unit of analysis, we realized findings similar to the earlier manufacturing studies. Next, we used contributions from the MBNQA literature to test an enhanced model. Our subsequent findings support the MBNQA concept that “leadership drives the system that creates results” and provides evidence of the ubiquitous importance of leadership for ensuring the success of a quality improvement program. Finally, an anomaly of this study and those published earlier is the inability to find support for the relationship between continuous improvement and customer satisfaction. Integrating the substantial work in the service quality literature focused on customer satisfaction measurement is recommended to future researchers to help resolve this issue and further enhance the model.