Lassoing the Determinants of Retirement

This article uses Danish register data to explain the retirement decision of workers in 1990 and 1998. Many variables might be conjectured to influence this decision such as demographic, socioeconomic, financial, and health related variables as well as all the same factors for the spouse in case the individual is married. In total, we have access to 399 individual specific variables that all could potentially impact the retirement decision. We use variants of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and the adaptive Lasso applied to logistic regression in order to uncover determinants of the retirement decision. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of these estimators in microeconometrics to a problem of this type and scale. Furthermore, we investigate whether the factors influencing the retirement decision are stable over time, gender, and marital status. It is found that this is the case for core variables such as age, income, wealth, and general health. We also point out the most important differences between these groups and explain why these might be present.     

Power analysis for clustered non-continuous responses in multicenter trials

Power analysis for multi-center randomized control trials is quite difficult to perform for non-continuous responses when site differences are modeled by random effects using the generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM). First, it is not possible to construct power functions analytically, because of the extreme complexity of the sampling distribution of parameter estimates. Second, Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, a popular option for estimating power for complex models, does not work within the current context because of a lack of methods and software packages that would provide reliable estimates for fitting such GLMMs. For example, even statistical packages from software giants like SAS do not provide reliable estimates at the time of writing. Another major limitation of MC simulation is the lengthy running time, especially for complex models such as GLMM, especially when estimating power for multiple scenarios of interest. We present a new approach to address such limitations. The proposed approach defines a marginal model to approximate the GLMM and estimates power without relying on MC simulation. The approach is illustrated with both real and simulated data, with the simulation study demonstrating good performance of the method.     

习近平外交思想指向下中日关系发展的新定位

近年来中日关系逐步转寒回暖,无论政治交流氛围,还是经济合作环境都得到了较大改善,这离不开中国政府根据国际形势及中日关系的变化及时调整对日政策,也充分体现了习近平新时代中国特色社会主义外交思想对中日关系缓和发展的引领作用。在安倍首相访华及习近平主席出席大阪G20峰会之后,两国政府在努力建设契合新时代要求的中日关系上达成多点共识。中日双方将依托“一带一路”倡议和第三方市场合作的平台,进一步致力于深化经济合作,维护多边主义和自由贸易体制,共同培育新动能和新的增长点,加速东北亚区域命运共同体的构建。     

社会主义和谐社会的多维意蕴及其取向

社会主义和谐社会具有多维意蕴及其取向,是一种协调、稳定与差别、矛盾并存,有序与创造活力兼具,人与人、人与自然同一的,具有多样化、整体性价值取向的新型文明社会。从多维视角,以整合观念去把握这一命题的内涵和本质,能为当前的实践提供新的思路。     

Conditional design of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is often designed assuming the process parameters are known. In practice, the parameters are rarely known and need to be estimated from Phase I samples. Different Phase I samples are used when practitioners construct their own control chart's limits, which leads to the “Phase I between-practitioners” variability in the in-control average run length (ARL) of control charts. The standard deviation of the ARL (SDARL) is a good alternative to quantify this variability in control charts. Based on the SDARL metric, the performance of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters is investigated in this paper. Some recommendations are given based on the SDARL metric. The results show that the EWMA median chart requires a much larger amount of Phase I data in order to reduce the variation in the in-control ARL up to a reasonable level. Due to the limitation of the amount of the Phase I data, the suggested EWMA median chart is designed with the bootstrap method which provides a good balance between the in-control and out-of-control ARL values.     

晚清民国时期蔗糖业视野下的广西城镇经济网络

晚清民国时期,广西蔗糖业经历了繁荣、衰落再发展的轨迹,通过商人的经营活动促进了城镇经济网络和蔗糖业的楔合,蔗糖业的发展推动了城镇经济网络的发展。蔗糖业和城镇经济网络的楔合促进了民族经济融合。     

女性不孕的影响及其社会工作干预

本文以社会工作的专业视角来看待不孕女性面临的社会心理问题,主要从女性不孕问题现状、女性不孕问题造成的个人社会影响和社会工作针对这一问题的专业干预策略几个方面着手分析。     

论当代浙商精神的科学内涵

人类精神的发展总是因民族、国家和地域差异,而表现出强韧的稳定性和文化多元性.浙江的地理环境、生产方式、社会文化造就了浙江人民兼容并蓄、励志图强的生活气度,砥砺了浙江人民厚德崇文、创业创新的精神品格.浙商精神既传承与沿袭了优秀传统基因,又随着时代的发展历久弥新,显示出强大的生命力和创造力.本文用史、论、实结合的方法从浙商精神历史文化基因、浙江精神的时代展现、当代浙商精神的现实内容以及浙商精神与浙江文化、浙江精神的内在统一性角度,从整体上揭示了浙商精神的时代特征、科学内涵和演进线索,展望了浙商精神在浙江转型升级、科学发展中的强大精神力量.     

我国文化产业思想的创新轨迹

党的十八大以来,以习近平为总书记的党中央不断深化对新形势下我国文化产业发展的特点和规律的认识,对文化产业的发展目的、价值定位、经济地位、发展动力、发展原则、发展方向和发展保障等提出了系列新思想,创造性地丰富和发展了文化产业思想。这些新思想逻辑清晰、层层递进,逐步构成了较为完善的思想体系,为今后我国文化产业的发展提供了重要的理论指导。     

网络恶搞：青少年集体狂欢的新主题

网络恶搞的风浪甚嚣尘上,它已成为青少年疯狂追捧的对象.本文以大众传播学、网络心理学、哲学、文化社会学、经济学的多维视角,深刻阐述当代青少年热衷追捧网络恶搞的原因,辩证思考网络恶搞对当代青少年的影响,指出减少与控制网络恶搞对青少年的消极影响需要青少年自身与社会等方面的共同努力.