Conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program HRA Procedure

This paper presents a limited assessment of the conservatism of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) human reliability analysis (HRA) procedure described in NUREG/CR-4772. The data for this study are derived from simulator examination reports from the NRC requalification examination cycle for nuclear power plant operators. The ASEP procedure was used to estimate human error probability (HEP) values for critical tasks, and the HEP results were compared with the failure rates observed in the examinations. The ASEP procedure was applied by PNNL operator license examiners who supplemented the limited information in the examination reports with expert judgment based upon their extensive simulator examination experience. Comparison of the average of the ASEP HEP values with the fraction of the population actually failed and demonstrated that the ASEP HEP values are larger (conservative) by a statistically significant average factor of two. Partitioning of tasks into subgroups based on the ASEP HEP values and comparison of the subgroup average ASEP HEP values with observed subgroup failure rates showed little or no conservatism for small ASEP HEP values, but considerable conservatism for larger ASEP HEP values.     

Futures forecasting for strategic planning at general electric

Without in any way denying that there are forces for stability, I want to state, as strongly as I can, my conviction that change is now more rapid, more complex and more pervasive than ever before in human history. There are forces loose in the world, particularly in the ‘post-industrial society’ of the United States, that go far beyond the youth movement in creating change. As a result, it is utterly unrealistic to pretend that business can continue to plan its strategies in the traditional mode.     

Gender Differences in Pay of Young Management Professionals in the United States: A Comprehensive View

We conduct a comprehensive examination of the gender differences in pay focusing on multiple perspectives emanating from economics, social psychology, and gender studies. Data are drawn from surveys of MBA students conducted by the Graduate Management Admissions Council. Although women in both samples earn significantly less on average than men, when the effects of the study's variables are considered via multiple regression analysis, no significant difference in annual salary is observed. Our results show the importance of simultaneously considering the impact of human capital, job and firm characteristics, demographics, and cognitive skills. Structural differences are noted in the models estimated separately for men and women. However, the results from decomposing salary differentials are quite consistent with estimates from the single-equation models.     

THE TREATMENT OF BORDERLINE PERSONALITY DISORDER WITHIN A DISTRESSED RELATIONSHIP*

An integrated systemic-psychodynamic approach to the treatment of characterological disorders within conjoint marital therapy is suggested. Spouses' personality disorders may serve a homeostatic function within the marital relationship. Thus, any effort to effect change on either the marital or individual system level must address both the individual and relationship distress. Borderline personality disorder, an extreme characterological impairment, has been considered intractible, although object relations therapists have experienced success in treating such clients. The present paper draws from object relations and systemic therapies in developing a treatment approach to marriages which include at least one borderline spouse. A case example illustrates the conceptualizations and interventions which are proposed.     

Book reviews

Theory and Society -     

A New Test for Short Memory in Long Memory Time Series

This article considers short memory characteristics in a long memory process. We derive new asymptotic results for the sample autocorrelation difference ratios. We used these results to develop a new portmanteau test that determines if short memory parameters are statistically significant. In simulations, the new test can detect short memory components more often than the Ljung-Box test when these short memory components are in fact within a long memory process. Interestingly, our test finds short memory autocorrelations in U.S. inflation rate data, whereas the Ljung-Box test fails to find these autocorrelations. Modeling these short memory autocorrelations of the inflation rate data leads to improved model accuracy and more precise prediction.     

Who cares about consent requirements for sourcing human embryonic stem cells? Are errors in the past really errors of the past?

Through an Access to Information Act request, we have obtained the consent forms used by the providers of every human embryonic stem cell (hESC) line approved for use by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR), and examined them to verify whether or not they meet the consent requirements established by Canadian law and regulations. Our findings show that at least seven out of ten consent forms studied did not satisfy these minimum requirements. We then outline various options for responding to this situation in terms of: (i) remedial measures for dealing with executive problems with regulatory oversight procedures; and (ii) remedial measures for dealing with the impugned lines.     

Verbal and Nonverbal Dynamics of Privacy, Secrecy, and Deceit

We discuss the ways in which deception can be used to protect privacy, as well as the ways in which claims to privacy can provide the latitude to lie. In their attempts to maintain their own privacy and their secrets, people can be assisted by others who overlook their lies. Habits of honoring other people's verbal and nonverbal claims about themselves, even when they are not totally convincing, and expectations of similar indulgences from others can keep interactions from getting derailed by small interpersonal bumps. But they also enable exploitation in the form of frauds and scams .