Telling the other what one knows? Strategic lying in a modified acquiring-a-company experiment with two-sided private information

Theory and Decision - Lying for a strategic advantage is to be expected in commercial interactions. But would this be more or less obvious when lying could come from either party and question...     

Exploring the relation between maternal mind‐mindedness and children’s symbolic play: A longitudinal study from 6 to 18 months

Relations between mothers’ mind‐mindedness (appropriate attunement to their infants’ internal states) at 6 and 12 months and infants’ early symbolic play during infant–mother pretense at 12 and 18 months were investigated in a sample of 43 mothers and infants. Mothers’ appropriate mind‐related comments were associated with average level, length, complexity, and maturity level of symbolic play. Specific sub‐categories of appropriate mind‐related comments were identified as independent predictors of children's symbolic play. Appropriate comments about desires and cognitions at 6 months were associated with average level and length of episodes, as well as with maturity level of symbolic play at 12 months. Longitudinal stability in the appropriateness and content of mothers’ mind‐related comments was also investigated. The results are discussed in terms of the proposal that attunement to specific types of internal state should vary as a function of infant age in order to index mind‐mindedness.     

制约县域经济发展的因素分析与对策建议

以县级行政区划为单位的县域经济是我国国民经济的基础,是建设小康社会的主战场。我国目前县域经济发展缓慢,已成为宏观经济可持续发展的瓶颈。虽然制约县域经济发展的障碍因素较多,本文仅从经济体制、行政体制、财政体制、金融体制、相关政策制度等方面进行分析,提出改革和完善体制、推行"一主三化"发展战略和制订各县域特色经济总体规划的对策建议。     

(Sub) Optimality and (non) optimal satisficing in risky decision experiments

We implement a risky choice experiment based on one-dimensional choice variables and risk neutrality induced via binary lottery incentives. Each participant confronts many parameter constellations with varying optimal payoffs. We assess (sub)optimality, as well as (non)optimal satisficing by eliciting aspirations in addition to choices. Treatments differ in the probability that a binary random event, which are payoff—but not optimal choice—relevant is experimentally induced and whether participants choose portfolios directly or via satisficing, i.e., by forming aspirations and checking for satisficing before making their choice. By incentivizing aspiration formation, we can test satisficing, and in cases of satisficing, determine whether it is optimal.     

Testing homogeneity in semiparametric mixture case–control models

Parametric and semiparametric mixture models have been widely used in applications from many areas, and it is often of interest to test the homogeneity in these models. However, hypothesis testing is non standard due to the fact that several regularity conditions do not hold under the null hypothesis. We consider a semiparametric mixture case–control model, in the sense that the density ratio of two distributions is assumed to be of an exponential form, while the baseline density is unspecified. This model was first considered by Qin and Liang (2011 Qin, J., Liang, K.Y. (2011). Hypothesis testing in a mixture case–control model. Biometrics 67(1):182–198.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], biometrics), and they proposed a modified score statistic for testing homogeneity. In this article, we consider alternative testing procedures based on supremum statistics, which could improve power against certain types of alternatives. We demonstrate the connection and comparison among the proposed and existing approaches. In addition, we provide a unified theoretical justification of the supremum test and other existing test statistics from an empirical likelihood perspective. The finite-sample performance of the supremum test statistics was evaluated in simulation studies.     

损失模拟模型的模拟与检验

为帮助精算师在不同的数据环境下选择最优的准备金评估方法,美国非寿险精算师协会组织开发了一个产生模拟索赔数据的开源软件系统——损失模拟模型,然而损失模拟模型是否能够按指定参数要求产生模拟数据需要进行检验.文章采用不同的参数估计方法和拟合优度检验方法对模拟索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势以及不同险种索赔次数之间的相关结构进行了统计检验,结果表明损失模拟模型对索赔次数的分布、索赔额的趋势能够产生一致的模拟,而对索赔次数数据之间相关结构的模拟存在不稳定性.     

Association between long-term erectile dysfunction and biochemical recurrence after permanent seed I125 implant brachytherapy for prostate cancer. A longitudinal study of a single-institution

We aimed to investigate the predictive factor of erectile dysfunction (ED) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients who underwent low-dose permanent I¹²⁵ seed implant brachytherapy and to investigate if ED could represent a patient’s reported outcome measures (PROMs) of efficacy of BT and indirectly associated with biochemical recurrence free survival (BRFS). From 2000 to 2012, 176 consecutive patients with low-risk PCa underwent BT. ED was evaluated with the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5). Cox regression analysis was performed to assess significant predictors of mild-to-severe ED and BRFS after BT, including covariates. The 10-year actuarial rate of ED was 66%. Subjects with severe ED had higher values of D90 (183.0 versus 177.0; p?p?p?p?=?0.20), while D90?≤?180?Gy independently predicted BCR (HR: 4.65; [95%CI: 1.25–17.34]; p?125 implant, but it is not associated with better BRFS.     

Usability in product design--the importance and need for systematic assessment models in product development--Usa-Design Model (U-D) ©

In product design, human factors are considered as an element of differentiation given that today's consumer demands are increasing. Safety, wellbeing, satisfaction, health, effectiveness, efficiency, and other aspects must be effectively incorporated into the product development process. This work proposes a usability assessment model that can be incorporated as an assessment tool. The methodological approach is settled in two stages. First a literature review focus specifically on usability and developing user-centred products. After this, a model of usability named Usa-Design (U-D?) is presented. Consisted of four phases: understanding the use context, pre-preliminary usability assessment (efficiency/effectiveness/satisfaction); assessment of usability principles and results, U-D? features are modular and flexible, allowing principles used in Phase 3 to be changed according to the needs and scenario of each situation. With qualitative/quantitative measurement scales of easy understanding and application, the model results are viable and applicable throughout all the product development process.     

… Do as the Romans do. A model of conformity with the endogenous formation of preferences

This note is an answer to a previous model on conformity in public goods contributions developed by Carpenter (2004), where a population evolution is allowed according to the standard replicator dynamic (Taylor and Jonker, 1978, Maynard Smith, 1982). To confirm his theoretical prediction, Carpenter developed an experiment showing that free riding actually grows faster when agents have the information necessary to conform. The model and the experiment are, however, inherently different, for the time scales of the model are not able to capture the short run convergence of behavior in the experimental laboratory.We here present a model of conformity which offers the same laboratory results as Carpenter without resorting to evolutionary models, and also gives agents the chance to adopt different strategies implying various levels of cooperation.