论网络资源“电子期刊化”的可持续发展——河北省网络新闻媒介融合发展策略之一

根据对中国电子期刊发展的现状以及河北网络新闻媒体进行电子期刊化发展中的内外部环境、存在的壁垒及对策的分析，并结合电子期刊网上随机抽样调查，探讨网络资源电子期刊化的可持续发展。认为电子期刊已经成为网络新的生力军和新的经济增长点，河北省网络新闻媒体“电子期刊化”发展具有丰富的新闻资源、人力资源和品牌资源，努力突破自身的行业壁垒和技术壁垒，以开放的思想，整合各种资源发行具有河北地方特色的电子期刊，将成为河北网络新闻媒介新的起跑点和新的经济增长点优势。     

广州"马斯"研究的创新佳作——评郭德焱博士《清代广州的巴斯商人》

青年学人郭德焱博士<清代广州的巴斯商人>一书,作为中山大学985研究经费资助项目,列入中山大学蔡鸿生教授主编"中外交流历史文丛"之一种,由中华书局2005年6月出版了.这部研究清代中外关系史中"巴斯"难题的专著,有力地改变了相关研究薄弱的现状,引起了学界的关注.     

新时期我国高等教育存在的不和谐问题及其原因分析

高等教育诸多方面存在着不适应建设和谐社会的问题。这种不和谐问题主要是由于高等教育体系在诸多方面还不能完全满足个人或适应社会的需求。产生问题的原因主要是高等教育体系在教育资源、运行机制、教育教学、教师等方面存在诸多需要改进之处。所有这些问题产生的根源可归结为高等教育质量问题。     

中国城市化与社会结构变迁

文章从社会学角度探讨了过去30年以来中国的城市化及其引发的社会结构变迁。文章指出，在过去30年中国的城市化经历了飞速的发展，进入了快速城市化阶段，离基本城市化阶段越来越近，但由于中国独特的城乡制度以及行政管理体制，中国城市化呈现两种模式——主动城市化模式和被动城市化模式，并呈现多种城市化主体，而政府和企业则是中国城市化的主导性主体。这背后最主要的动力机制还是制度和利益，彰显出中国社会结构变迁趋势：在利益机制驱使下，中国社会渐渐地形成了城乡差别不断扩大、城市内部分化明显的利益分配格局；由于缺乏公开、公正、民主的配置机制，各个城市化主体之间的博弈大多屈从于弱肉强食的“丛林法则”，从而导致各种暴力冲突、相互仇视的问题，这在一定程度上破坏了城市社会运行秩序特别是支撑这些秩序的信任机制，显现出相当严重的合法性危机，对未来中国的城市化提出了严峻的挑战。为此，文章提出了中国未来城市化的几种可能的路径。     

Bootstrap Estimation of Benchmark Doses and Confidence Limits with Clustered Quantal Data

The benchmark dose (BMD) is an exposure level that would induce a small risk increase (BMR level) above the background. The BMD approach to deriving a reference dose for risk assessment of noncancer effects is advantageous in that the estimate of BMD is not restricted to experimental doses and utilizes most available dose-response information. To quantify statistical uncertainty of a BMD estimate, we often calculate and report its lower confidence limit (i.e., BMDL), and may even consider it as a more conservative alternative to BMD itself. Computation of BMDL may involve normal confidence limits to BMD in conjunction with the delta method. Therefore, factors, such as small sample size and nonlinearity in model parameters, can affect the performance of the delta method BMDL, and alternative methods are useful. In this article, we propose a bootstrap method to estimate BMDL utilizing a scheme that consists of a resampling of residuals after model fitting and a one-step formula for parameter estimation. We illustrate the method with clustered binary data from developmental toxicity experiments. Our analysis shows that with moderately elevated dose-response data, the distribution of BMD estimator tends to be left-skewed and bootstrap BMDL s are smaller than the delta method BMDL s on average, hence quantifying risk more conservatively. Statistically, the bootstrap BMDL quantifies the uncertainty of the true BMD more honestly than the delta method BMDL as its coverage probability is closer to the nominal level than that of delta method BMDL. We find that BMD and BMDL estimates are generally insensitive to model choices provided that the models fit the data comparably well near the region of BMD. Our analysis also suggests that, in the presence of a significant and moderately strong dose-response relationship, the developmental toxicity experiments under the standard protocol support dose-response assessment at 5% BMR for BMD and 95% confidence level for BMDL.     

国有无形资产流失问题探讨

文章根据经济全球化和知识化的客观要求,在分析国有无形资产流失的特征、途径的基础上,从强化观念、建立机构、完善制度、制定战略、营造环境等方面提出了防止国有无形资产流失的一系列对策。     

《蒙特利尔公约》下的赔偿责任体系及相关问题

1999年《蒙特利尔公约》随着美国作为第30个国家的加入,已于2003年11月4日正式生效。经我国人民代表大会批准,公约于2005年7月31日对我国生效。本文通过对《蒙特利尔公约》与其之前的公约(华沙公约体系和IATA责任体制)进行比较,阐述了公约的重要意义及重要新增内容,探讨了公约相关问题。     

腊八趣话

“腊八”,即农历的十二月初八日。它是中国古代极为重要的传统节日。从时序上看,过了腊八,春节就指日可待了。农历的十二月称“腊月”。“腊与“猎”字通。其原始义为:人们在用猎获的牺牲举行祭礼,驱邪避灾,纳福迎祥。《礼记·效特牲》中有:“伊耆氏始为蜡。蜡也者,索也岁十二月,合聚万物而索飨之也的记载。但腊月初八日作为一个节日,是从南北朝才渐至成型的。戎昱有一首《桂州腊夜》的诗:坐到三更尽,归仍万里赊。雪声偏傍竹,寒梦不离家。晓角分残漏,孤灯落碎花。二年随骠骑,辛苦向天涯。这是作者腊夜的怀乡之作。羁之思,人生况味,溢于其间…     

A survey of the family planning work done in Dongguan County

The total fertility rate of women of childbearing age of Dongguan County in China has been decreasing gradually from 5.9 during the period following the liberation in 1949 to 2.05 in 1982. In order to encourage young couples to implement the policy of family planning consciously, the people's government of Dongguan county decided in July 1980 that all cadres and employees in county towns who received 1-child certificates would be exempted from house rent of 45 square meters from the time they get their certificates and would be allocated a living space of a 2-children family until their children reached age 16. It also stipulated that every couple could enjoy 1 month's holiday every year for 3 years and during the holiday, their salary, bonus and rate of attendance would not be affected. Because women bear less children today, they are relieved from heavy household chores and become the main working force in collective production. As a result, the development of town-run enterprises was stimulated and the total industrial output value of these enterprises increased. The average monthly salary of each female worker is about 100 yuan. In 1984, the average income per capita of the country rose to 649.2 yuan. The implementation of family planning work has eased the tension in the education field. Previously, because of the large number of school-age children in rural areas, teachers had to teach 2 classes. In the past 4 years, great emphasis was laid on intellectual investment. During this period, 2351 schools were built and several fundraising projects were implemented. Since 1981, more than 200 new running water projects were built, and new public services have been developed, including old age homes.     

Modeling household fertility decisions with generalized Poisson regression

This paper models household fertility decisions by using a generalized Poisson regression model. Since the fertility data used in the paper exhibit under-dispersion, the generalized Poisson regression model has statistical advantages over both standard Poisson and negative binomial regression models, and is suitable for analysis of count data that exhibit either over-dispersion or under-dispersion. The model is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. Approximate tests for the dispersion and goodness-of-fit measures for comparing alternative models are discussed. Based on observations from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics of 1989 interviewing year, the empirical results support the fertility hypothesis of Becker and Lewis (1973). Received January 7, 1997 /Accepted April 3, 1997