The Influence of Value Orientations,Personal Beliefs,and Knowledge about Resource Extraction on Local Leaders' Positions on Shale Development

Unconventional shale oil and gas production plays a prominent role in boosting economic growth and stimulating wealth creation in many communities. However, because of potential social and environmental drawbacks, including a lack of affordable housing and groundwater contamination from drilling, unconventional shale development is highly contentious in many areas and has resulted in many community conflicts. Hydraulic fracturing, which is a specific technology utilized in unconventional shale development, has proved especially contentious because of concerns about its long‐term environmental consequences. Given the fast pace of shale development, coupled with the controversy that surrounds it, we seek to understand what factors affect a local government official's stance on shale development and hydraulic fracturing. To do this we draw from value‐belief‐norms theory while additionally examining knowledge and community‐level factors that can influence an official's position. In this study, we survey 308 local government officials across six shale plays in the United States to examine local officials' positions on shale development and hydraulic fracturing. We find that the more positively officials perceive the consequences of shale development, the less likely they are to support banning hydraulic fracturing. Additionally, we find that networks to other shale communities are positively associated with favoring a ban. Further, leaders with a bachelor's degree or higher are more likely to favor a ban than those with lower than a bachelor's degree.     

How Inventory Cost Influences Introduction Timing of Product Line Extensions

In the industry with radical technology push or rapidly changing customer preference, it is firms' common wisdom to introduce high‐end product first, and follow by low‐end product‐line extensions. A key decision in this “down‐market stretch” strategy is the introduction time. High inventory cost is pervasive in such industries, but its impact has long been ignored during the presale planning stage. This study takes a first step toward filling this gap. We propose an integrated inventory (supply) and diffusion (demand) framework and analyze how inventory cost influences the introduction timing of product‐line extensions, considering substitution effect among successive generations. We show that under low inventory cost or frequent replenishment ordering policy, the optimal introduction time indeed follows the well‐known “now or never” rule. However, sequential introduction becomes optimal as the inventory holding gets more substantial or the product life cycle gets shorter. The optimal introduction timing can increase or decrease with the inventory cost depending on the marketplace setting, requiring a careful analysis.     

What probability should a jury address?

Probability of guilt is not the criterion on which a verdict in a criminal trial should be based, says Tony Gardner-Medwin . The courts, quite sensibly, do not even allow access to some of the background evidence on which a proper assessment of this probability should be made. He argues that a more satisfactory criterion is the probability, or degree of belief, that the evidence could have arisen without guilt.