Determinants of group-level overconfidence in teams: A quasi-experimental investigation of diversity and tenure

Teams of business leaders make most strategic decisions in organizations. However, although a large body of research has analyzed cognitive biases of individual leaders, little is known about how those biases affect teams on the group level. Therefore, on the basis of research into group decision making and group diversity, we analyze demographic diversity and group tenure as two important determinants of overconfidence in groups. We report findings from a quasi-experimental field study involving 46 management teams, which suggest that diversity and tenure have separate, direct effects on group overconfidence. More specifically, we show that demographic diversity reduces group overconfidence, while group tenure increases it. These findings add a dynamic dimension to the conceptualization of group overconfidence in teams.     

Experiences of Violence Among Transgender Women in Puerto Rico: An Underestimated Problem

Violence is a public health concern faced on a daily basis by transgender women. Literature has documented how it adversely affects quality of life and health and in some instances leads to homicide. Considering the lack of research documenting the experiences of violence among transgender women, the objective of this article was to explore manifestations of violence among this population in Puerto Rico. The data presented in this article are part of a larger study on transgender/transsexual health in Puerto Rico. For the purpose of this article we focus on the quantitative data analysis. Participants (N = 59 transgender women) were recruited via respondent driven sampling. Implications and specific recommendations are discussed in light of these findings.     

Studying the Motivations Behind Sexual Agreements: A First Look at the Motivations Behind Agreement (MBA) Scale for Male Couples

Sexual agreements are ubiquitous among male couples, yet little is known about motivations behind agreements and their association with sexual risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Qualitative interviews with 39 couples informed the development of the items in the Motivations Behind Agreement (MBA) scale. The scale was validated via exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using quantitative data from two (790 and 882 men) independent samples of couples. The EFA yielded two factors: relationship quality enhancement motive (RQEM) and sex life enhancement motive (SLEM). The CFA indicated satisfactory global model data fit. Finally, in predicting sexual risk, RQEM and SLEM showed significant interactions with agreement type. For men with monogamous agreements, higher RQEM was associated with less condomless anal sex (CAS) with an outside partner of discordant or unknown serostatus (aOR = 0.15; 95% CI = 0.05, 0.46). For men with nonmonogamous agreements, higher RQEM was associated with less CAS (aOR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.60, 0.97) while higher SLEM was associated with greater odds of CAS (aOR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.18, 2.08). Men whose agreements were highly motivated by relationship enhancement were less likely to engage in sexual risk with outside partners regardless of agreement type. HIV-prevention interventions targeting male couples will benefit from incorporating an understanding of couples’ agreement motivations.     

Scientific autonomy and planned research: the case of space science

Scientific research that requires space flight has always been subject to comparatively strong external control. Its agenda has often had to be adapted to vacillating political target specifications. Can space scientists appeal to one or the other form of the widely acknowledged principle of freedom of research in order to claim more autonomy? In this paper, the difficult question of autonomy within planned research is approached by examining three arguments that support the principle of freedom of research in differing ways. Each argument has its particular strengths and limitations. Together they serve to demonstrate particular advantages of scientific autonomy, but in the case of space science, their force ultimately remains limited. However, as the arguments highlight the interrelations between scientific autonomy, the democratic process and the collective interest in scientific knowledge, they suggest that a coherent and sustained space science agenda might best be ensured by increasing the transparency of science policy decisions and involving the democratic public.     

Past Present: Discordant Gay Male Couples,HIV Infection History,and Relationship Dynamics

Discordant couples are unique because partners do not share the same serostatus. Yet research overlooks how they became discordant, mistakenly assuming that they have always been that way and, by extension, that being discordant impacts the relationship in a similar manner. This study examines HIV infection history and its impact on relationship dynamics using qualitative data from 35 discordant gay male couples. Most couples were discordant when they met (69%); however, many were not (31%). Those couples that met discordant felt being discordant had a lesser impact on their sexual and relational satisfaction, while those that did not meet discordant felt it had a greater impact, reporting sexual frustration and anxiety over seroconverting. This suggests that relationship dynamics may differ for discordant couples depending on HIV infection history. HIV prevention and counseling services for discordant couples can be better tailored and more effective when differences in HIV infection history are recognized.     

Associations between Sexual Abstinence Ideals,Religiosity, and Alcohol Abstinence: A Longitudinal Study of Finnish Twins

We analyzed prevalence and stability of attitudes endorsing sexual abstinence ideals from late adolescence into early adulthood and studied associations of these attitudes with religiosity and alcohol abstinence in a sexually liberal Nordic society. Our population-based sample of Finnish twins permitted comparisons of co-twins concordant for religiosity but discordant for drinking to evaluate the association of sexual abstinence ideals with alcohol abstinence, controlling for household environment. From age 17 to 24, endorsement of sexual abstinence as a romantic ideal declined from 25% to 15%. Religiosity and alcohol abstinence correlated, both separately and together, with endorsing sexual abstinence. Abstinence ideals were associated with literal belief in fundamental tenets of the Bible. The association of sexual abstinence ideals with alcohol abstinence was confirmed in within-family comparisons of co-twins discordant for drinking but concordant for religiosity. Alcohol-abstinent twins were significantly more likely than their non-alcohol-abstinent twin siblings to endorse sexual abstinence ideals; that result suggests the association of sexual abstinence ideals with abstaining from alcohol is not explained by unmeasured confounds in familial background and structure. Our longitudinal results and analyses of discordant twins suggest that attitudes toward sexual abstinence ideals are embedded within other conservative attitudes and behaviors.     

FRAGILE STATES AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY

It is widely recognized that fragile states are key symptoms of under‐development in many parts of the world. Such states are incapable of delivering basic services to their citizens and political violence is commonplace. As of yet, mainstream development economics has not dealt in any systematic way with such concerns and the implications for development assistance. This paper puts forward a framework for analyzing fragile states and applies it to a variety development policies in different types of states.     

Debiasing illusion of control in individual judgment: the role of internal and external advice seeking

This paper builds on behavioral strategy and strategic decision making literatures to propose a stronger integration of information acquisition behaviors in debiasing research. We argue that the advice-seeking behavior of executives—as their dominant way of information acquisition—may have a fundamental effect on cognitive biases in individual judgment. Empirical results of a vignette-based survey of 186 top executives in German SMEs support this claim. We posit that internal and external advice affect individual judgment differently and that external advice, in particular, is likely to be effective for debiasing. These results suggest new avenues for debiasing research that go beyond the active intervention techniques that have been the focus of debiasing research thus far.     

Time Consistency of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: A Solution

This paper demonstrates how time consistency of the Ramsey policy—the optimal fiscal and monetary policy under commitment—can be achieved. Each government should leave its successor with a unique maturity structure for nominal and indexed debt, such that the marginal benefit of a surprise inflation exactly balances the marginal cost. Unlike in earlier papers on the topic, the result holds for quite general Ramsey policies, including time‐varying polices with positive inflation and positive nominal interest rates. We compare our results with those in Persson, Persson, and Svensson (1987), Calvo and Obstfeld (1990), and Alvarez, Kehoe, and Neumeyer (2004).