Unit root tests: the autoregressive approach in comparison with the periodogram regression

In Monte Carlo sudies we investigate unit root tests in line with Dickey/Fuller (1979). In case of positively autocorrelated MA(1) residuals their experimental power is extremely poor. Next we compare different versions of periodogram regression suggested in the literature. Their experimental behaviour is investigated with fractionally integrated processes. It is demonstrated how unit root tests may be based on periodogram regression. There is simulation evidence that those tests may do better in terms of power than the autoregressive tests, especially when testing ARMA(1,1) series against a linear time trend.     

Demography of Indian aging, 2001-2051

India is the second largest country in the world, with 72 million elderly persons above 60 years of age as of 2001, compared to China's 127 million. One of the objectives of this paper is to assess the emerging scenario of elderly for the first half of the 21st century. According to projections, the elderly in the age group 60 and above is expected to increase from 71 million in 2001 to 179 million in 2031, and further to 301 million in 2051; in the case of those 70 years and older, they are projected to increase from 27 million in 2001 to 132 million in 2051. Among the elderly persons 80 and above, they are likely to improve their numbers from 5.4 million in 2021 to 32.0 million in 2051. The increasing number and proportion of elderly will have a direct impact on the demand for health services and pension and social security payments. Mobilizing resources for geriatric care and providing sufficient maintenance for the elderly will emerge as a major responsibility for heath-care providers and pension economists.     

Union Stability and Stepfamily Fertility in Austria,Finland, France &; West Germany

In this paper, we test the hypothesis that unique effects of stepfamily composition on union fertility are confounded with differences between stepfamilies and couples without stepchildren in the risk of union disruption. We use birth and union histories from Fertility and Family Surveys in Austria, Finland, France and West Germany. The risks of a union birth and separation are modeled simultaneously, allowing for the potential effects of unobserved predispositions to have a child or to separate on the other event. We test hypotheses drawn from the value of first and second shared births to couples: Net of the couple’s combined parity, the birth risk will be greater if the child is (a) the first in a union, (b) the first biological child for one of the partners, or (c) the second child in a union.Henz, U. et Thomson, E., 2005. Stabilité des unions et fécondité des familles recomposées en Autriche, Finlande, France et Allemagne de l’ouest, Revue Européenne de Démographie, 21: 3–29.     

Colonial Governmentality and the Public Sphere in India

Colonial governmentality in India reconstituted the public sphere. New political rationalities that constituted modern governmental power and the liberal technologies of government effected a new conception of economy and society. Governmentality's governance of colonial conduct in an improving direction socialized native public opinion to question the legitimacy of the colonial covenant. As native opinion against colonial rule sharpened, colonial liberalism had often to make a volte-face of its liberal principle and was forced to suppress public opinion. Gandhi alone sought to overturn colonial governmentality and in doing so, provided a conception of public opinion that could transcend the limits of liberal reason.     

《人权概念起源》随想

人权是一个发展的概念,并不是一个逻辑的、先验的抽象概念,将其与具体的历史形态相联系有助于人权悖论之解决.文章简要介绍了马克思主义人权理论的基本特点,并且对不同地域文化背景下的中西方人权观念作了比较.事实上,在一个自然经济为基础的伦理社会,根本不可能产生人权的概念.     

The Stability of Rankings Derived From Composite Indicators: Analysis of the “IL Sole 24 Ore” Quality of Life Report

The calculation of composite indicators and the derivation of respective rankings is a common method used to benchmark countries or regions. However, although the statistical robustness of these rankings is often criticised, they often still spark off heated political debate. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the province ranking published by the Italian economics newspaper “Il Sole 24 Ore”. For this purpose, various weighting, normalising and aggregation schemes were compared. Furthermore, to assess the accuracy of the underlying model, confidence intervals were calculated for the indicator values. The dynamic properties of the rankings were also analysed by evaluating the short- and long-term forecast properties of the rankings.     

Religion as a determinant of marital stability

Using data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households, this paper studies the role of the religious composition of unions as a determinant of marital stability. With the exceptions of Mormons and individuals with no religious identification, stability is found to be remarkably similar across the various types of homogamous unions. Consistent with the notion that religion is a complementary marital trait, interfaith unions have generally higher rates of dissolution than intrafaith unions. The destabilizing effect of out-marriage varies inversely with the similarity in beliefs and practices of the two religions as well as with the mutual tolerance embodied in their respective doctrines. The results also suggest that religious compatibility between spouses at the time of marriage has a large influence on marital stability, rivaling in magnitude that of age at marriage and, at least for Protestants and Catholics, dominating any adverse effects of differences in religious background.     

Sex-dependent associations between daily physical activity and leg exercise blood pressure responses

The authors examined interindividual and sex-specific variation in systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure responses to graded leg-extension exercise in healthy older (60-78 yr) women (n = 21) and men (n = 19). Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max), body composition, physical activity (accelerometry), and vascular function were measured to identify predictors of exercise BP. Neither VO2max nor activity counts were associated with the rise in SBP or DBP during exercise in men. The strongest predictors of these responses in men were age (SBP: r2 = .19, p = .05) and peak exercise leg vasodilation (DBP: r2 = -.21, p < .05). In women, the modest relationship observed between VO2max and exercise BP was abolished after adjusting for central adiposity and activity counts (best predictors, cumulative r2 = .53, p < .05, for both SBP and DBP). These results suggest that determinants of variation in submaximal exercise BP responses among older adults are sex specific, with daily physical activity influencing these responses in women but not men.