Wirkungen des TV-Duells im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2005 auf die Wahlentscheidung

During the election campaign to the German Federal Election 2005 the incumbent chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his challenger Angela Merkel met one another on the occasion of a televised debate, the so-called “TV-duel”. This debate was viewed by roughly one third of the German electorate. It is analyzed, whether the perception of the TV-duel winner has had an influence on the voting decision. In the empirical analyses special regard is given to the stability of the winner perception until election day and the influence of subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates. The data analyzed were collected by means of a new interviewing technology via the television screen of the respondents. It is shown, that the winner perception was largely stable and only marginally influenced by the media coverage following the debate. Subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates turn out to be of no importance for the voting decision. The effect of the winner perception on voting behaviour was mediated by changing candidate orientations.     

Stability of Recalled Parental Rearing Behavior in a Community Sample of Adolescents and Young Adults

This study examined the temporal stability of recalled parental rearing behavior (RPRB) in a community sample of adolescents and young adults (aged 15–19 at first assessment, N = 945) over a period of nearly two years. RPRB (overprotection/control, rejection/punishment, and emotional warmth, separately for mother and father) was assessed at two assessment waves (time interval: M = 21.18 months, SD = 0.09 months) using the Questionnaire of Recalled Parental Rearing Behavior. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) between both assessments were examined. ICCs were similar for maternal and paternal RPRB and slightly higher for emotional warmth (mother: .70; father: .70) than for rejection/punishment (mother: .69; father: .68) and overprotection/control (mother: .66; father: .62). These findings suggest an at least moderate temporal stability of RPRB in adolescents of the community.     

如何管理利益冲突？

由于公司丑司的不断出现，许多国家都加强了公司治理的力度，其中一个方面就是要求公司用一种正确而透明的方式来处理董事会成员们身上的利益冲突问题。     

Corporation taxes and the debt policy of multinational firms

This paper analyzes the impact of corporate taxes on the capital structure of foreign subsidiaries of multinational firms. The empirical investigation employs a large micro-level panel dataset of German multinationals covering 31 countries over a 10-year period. A special feature of this dataset is that it allows us to distinguish between internal and external debt financing. Our results confirm a positive effect of local tax rates on both types of debt. Moreover, while adverse local credit market conditions are found to reduce external borrowing, internal debt is increasing, supporting the view that the two channels of debt finance are substitutes. Our findings suggest that internal credit markets give rise to significant advantages and enhance multinationals?? opportunities to use debt as a tax shield.     

The use of external controls: To what extent can it currently be recommended?

With more and better clinical data being captured outside of clinical studies and greater data sharing of clinical studies, external controls may become a more attractive alternative to randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Both industry and regulators recognize that in situations where a randomized study cannot be performed, external controls can provide the needed contextualization to allow a better interpretation of studies without a randomized control. It is also agreed that external controls will not fully replace RCTs as the gold standard for formal proof of efficacy in drug development and the yardstick of clinical research. However, it remains unclear in which situations conclusions about efficacy and a positive benefit/risk can reliably be based on the use of an external control. This paper will provide an overview on types of external control, their applications and the different sources of bias their use may incur, and discuss potential mitigation steps. It will also give recommendations on how the use of external controls can be justified.     

Risk of Bayesian Inference in Misspecified Models,and the Sandwich Covariance Matrix

It is well known that, in misspecified parametric models, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is consistent for the pseudo‐true value and has an asymptotically normal sampling distribution with “sandwich” covariance matrix. Also, posteriors are asymptotically centered at the MLE, normal, and of asymptotic variance that is, in general, different than the sandwich matrix. It is shown that due to this discrepancy, Bayesian inference about the pseudo‐true parameter value is, in general, of lower asymptotic frequentist risk when the original posterior is substituted by an artificial normal posterior centered at the MLE with sandwich covariance matrix. An algorithm is suggested that allows the implementation of this artificial posterior also in models with high dimensional nuisance parameters which cannot reasonably be estimated by maximizing the likelihood.     

The Utility of Gambling Reconsidered

The utility of gambling, which entails an intrinsic utility or disutility of risk, has been alluded to in the economics literature for over a century. This paper demonstrates that any utility of gambling almost unavoidably implies a violation of fundamental rationality properties, such as transitivity or stochastic dominance, for static choices between gambles. This result may explain why the utility of gambling, a phenomenon so widely discussed, has never been formalized in the economics literature. The model of this paper accommodates well-known deviations from expected utility, such as the Allais paradox and the coexistence of gambling and insurance, while minimally deviating from expected utility.     

Are Preference Reversals Errors? An Experimental Investigation

This paper investigates whether some part of the preference reversal phenomenon can be attributed to errors in the responses of subjects in experiments. Such errors have been well documented in other investigations of behaviour in risky decision problems, but their relevance to the preference reversal phenomenon has not been explored. Building on earlier work, we develop an extended error model and apply it to the results of an experiment in which subjects tackle risky choice problems on five separate occasions. In this experiment subjects had to answer choice questions in three occasions and to state selling and buying prices in the remaining two occasions. Our results indicate that scale compatibility can be ruled out as a significant sole explanation of the preference reversal phenomenon. Moreover, we can show that a considerable fraction of observed preference reversals can be classified as pricing errors, whereas choice errors turn out to play a minor role.