A genuine foundation for prospect theory

In most models of (cumulative) prospect theory, reference dependence of preferences is imposed beforehand and the location of the reference point is determined exogenously. This paper presents principles that provide critical tests and foundations for prospect theory preferences without assuming reference-dependent preferences a priori. Instead, reference dependence is derived from behavior and the reference point arises endogenously.     

Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts for a Mean Based on Its Prediction Distribution

This article develops a control chart for a mean vector when it is monitored by a quadratic form in the exponentially weighted observation vector. A Bayesian approach is used to incorporate parameter uncertainty. We first use a Bayesian predictive distribution to construct the control chart, and we then use a sampling theory approach to evaluate it under various hypothetical specifications for the data generation model.     

Combined Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Charts for the Mean and Variance Based on the Predictive Distribution

This article develops combined exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts for the mean and variance of a normal distribution. A Bayesian approach is used to incorporate parameter uncertainty. We first use a Bayesian predictive distribution to construct the control chart, and we then use a sampling theory approach to evaluate it under various hypothetical specifications for the data generation model. Simulations are used to compare the proposed charts for different values of both the weighing constant for the exponentially weighted moving averages and for the size of the calibration sample that is used to estimate the in-statistical-control process parameters. We also examine the separate performance of the EWMA chart for the variance.     

Risk Assessment for Interconnected Electrical Power Grids

Using an analogy with costs, risk is split into a fixed and a variable contribution. Based on this concept, the total risk of an interconnected electrical power grid is minimized. The theoretical foundations of the method are explained and illustrated by model calculations.     

A statistical method to convert published response rates into marginal distributions with an example application in psoriasis

Assessment of severity is essential for the management of chronic diseases. Continuous variables like scores obtained from the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression or the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) are standard measures used in clinical trials of depression and psoriasis. In clinical trials of psoriasis, for example, the reduction of PASI from baseline in response to therapy, in particular the proportion of patients achieving at least 75%, 90%, or 100% improvement of disease (PASI 75, PASI 90, or PASI 100), is typically used to evaluate treatment efficacy. However, evaluation of the proportions of patients reaching absolute PASI values (eg, ≤1, ≤2, ≤3, or ≤5) has recently gained greater clinical interest and is increasingly being reported. When relative versus absolute scores are standard, as is the case with the PASI in psoriasis, it is difficult to compare absolute changes using existing published data. Thus, we developed a method to estimate absolute PASI levels from aggregated relative levels. This conversion method is based on a latent 2‐dimensional normal distribution for the absolute score at baseline and at a specific endpoint with a truncation to allow for baseline inclusion criterion. The model was fitted to aggregated results from simulations and from 3 phase III studies that had known absolute PASI proportions. The predictions represented the actual results quite precisely. This model might be applied to other conditions, such as depression, to estimate proportions of patients achieving an absolute low level of disease activity, given absolute values at baseline and proportions of patients achieving relative improvements at a subsequent time point.     

Stability of Recalled Parental Rearing Behavior in a Community Sample of Adolescents and Young Adults

This study examined the temporal stability of recalled parental rearing behavior (RPRB) in a community sample of adolescents and young adults (aged 15–19 at first assessment, N = 945) over a period of nearly two years. RPRB (overprotection/control, rejection/punishment, and emotional warmth, separately for mother and father) was assessed at two assessment waves (time interval: M = 21.18 months, SD = 0.09 months) using the Questionnaire of Recalled Parental Rearing Behavior. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) between both assessments were examined. ICCs were similar for maternal and paternal RPRB and slightly higher for emotional warmth (mother: .70; father: .70) than for rejection/punishment (mother: .69; father: .68) and overprotection/control (mother: .66; father: .62). These findings suggest an at least moderate temporal stability of RPRB in adolescents of the community.     

Second modernity as a research agenda: theoretical and empirical explorations in the 'meta-change' of modern society

In this article we are reformulating the theory of reflexive modernization as an empirical research programme and summarize some of the most recent findings which have been produced by a research consortium in Munich (integrating four universities, funded by the German Research Society (DFG)). On this basis we reject the idea that Western societies at the beginning of the twenty-first century move from the modern to the post-modern. We argue that there has been no clear break with the basic principles of modernity but rather a transformation of basic institutions of modernity such as the nation-state and the nuclear family. We would suggest, therefore, that what we are witnessing is a second modernity. Finally, we reform the theory of reflexive modernization in reaction to three uttered objections.     

Wirkungen des TV-Duells im Vorfeld der Bundestagswahl 2005 auf die Wahlentscheidung

During the election campaign to the German Federal Election 2005 the incumbent chancellor Gerhard Schröder and his challenger Angela Merkel met one another on the occasion of a televised debate, the so-called “TV-duel”. This debate was viewed by roughly one third of the German electorate. It is analyzed, whether the perception of the TV-duel winner has had an influence on the voting decision. In the empirical analyses special regard is given to the stability of the winner perception until election day and the influence of subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates. The data analyzed were collected by means of a new interviewing technology via the television screen of the respondents. It is shown, that the winner perception was largely stable and only marginally influenced by the media coverage following the debate. Subjective expectations towards the debate performance of the candidates turn out to be of no importance for the voting decision. The effect of the winner perception on voting behaviour was mediated by changing candidate orientations.