The EFOM 12C energy supply model within the EC modelling system

This article describes the EC-EFOM 12C model in general and refers where possible to existing documentation. It also reports on the first completed experimental case study and on planned future analysis. This model was developed in one of the research programs undertaken by the European Commission aimed primarily at multinational studies. Data are obtained from research carried out by an interactive network of national implementation teams working with a central group at the Commission. The energy system used is an oriented network carrying the primary energy over intermediate stages till finally meeting consumers' demand. The numerical information, constituting the attributes that characterise the various energy transformation processes, is stored in the European energy data base. About 225 transformation processes distributed over 17 subsystems characterised for six time periods up till 2020 for all EC countries are involved. The management of the data base is performed by an interactive software and this data base is designed for use in simulation studies and for linear programming optimisation with various objective functions. The model has been used in a parallel case study to explore substitution possibilities between an investment policy reducing the primary energy imports and one where these investments are restrained at the cost of having to import more primary energy. Results are shown and briefly discussed. Finally the relationship of this EFOM 12C model with the other EC models developed in the same research subprogram is outlined.     

Environmental stressors: the mental health impacts of living near industrial activity

A growing literature examines whether the poor, the working class, and people of color are disproportionately likely to live in environmentally hazardous neighborhoods. This literature assumes that environmental characteristics such as industrial pollution and hazardous waste are detrimental to human health, an assumption that has not been well tested. Drawing upon the sociology of mental health and environmental inequality studies, we ask whether industrial activity has an impact on psychological well-being. We link individual-level survey data with data from the US. Census and the Toxic Release Inventory and find that residential proximity to industrial activity has a negative impact on mental health. This impact is both direct and mediated by individuals' perceptions of neighborhood disorder and personal powerlessness, and the impact is greater for minorities and the poor than it is for whites and wealthier individuals. These results suggest that public health officials need to take seriously the mental health impacts of living near industrial facilities.     

Convergence of non-linear functionals of smoothed empirical processes and kernel density estimates

We consider regularizations by convolution of the empirical process and study the asymptotic behaviour of non-linear functionals of this process. Using a result for the same type of non-linear functionals of the Brownian bridge, shown in a previous paper [4], and a strong approximation theorem, we prove several results for the p-deviation in estimation of the derivatives of the density. We also study the asymptotic behaviour of the number of crossings of the smoothed empirical process defined by Yukich [17] and of a modified version of the Kullback deviation.     

Application and Reliability of Change-Point Analyses for Detecting a Defective Stage in Integrated Circuit Manufacturing

ABSTRACT

This article presents a reliable method for highlighting a defective stage within a manufacturing process when the existence of a failure is only known at the end of the process. It was developed in the context of integrated circuit manufacturing, where low costs and high yields are indispensable if the manufacturer is to be competitive. Change detection methods were used to point out the defective stage. Two methods were compared and the best chosen. Thanks to this approach, it was possible to solve some yield problems for which the engineers' investigations were far from the real cause of failure. However, there is a strong requirement to assess the reliability of the suspicions cast on the incriminated stage, otherwise engineers could be made to do useless work and time could be wasted looking into events that are not the true cause of failure. Two complementary tools were implemented for this reliability assessment and their efficiency is illustrated by several examples.     

工作搜寻理论、匹配模型及其政策启示——2010年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者研究贡献综述

本文首先简要介绍了戴蒙德、莫藤森和皮萨里德斯这三位诺奖得主的主要研究贡献.随后对这三位经济学家的主要理论--工作搜寻理论和匹配模型进行了简单回顾和梳理.最后,对上述理论的政策启示进行了讨论.     

古滇国青铜器的美学特征

1957年在晋宁石寨山出土了"滇王印",证实了古代"滇国"的存在,古滇国的青铜器种类十分繁杂,具有浓烈的地方色彩,"滇"本身就是一个神秘的古国,其艺术的生动真实常常唤起一种经历的记忆与想象。给予我们美的享受。古滇青铜雕刻与图饰的题材内容非常广泛,充满了生活气息。生活实践,是古滇国青铜器艺术生动大胆的表现力、强悍灵动风格的基础。在古滇国青铜器中,雕刻图饰与器物是融为一体的,是古滇青铜艺术特有的构成形式。古滇国青铜器的艺术风格是非常写实的,布局上,疏密节奏的安排赋予韵律感与装饰美。     

马尼拉、澳门、广州:紧密相联的三座城市

数百年来,马尼拉、澳门和广州一直相互依存,保持着密切关系。从16世纪后期至今,三者有着紧密的互动关系,每一城市对其他两者都有着深刻的影响与冲击。这些联系已经维系了几百年,直到今天仍有数万菲律宾人在珠江三角洲生活和工作。牛痘传入澳门和广州或许是巴尔米斯环球之旅的意外收获,但它也确实是三个地区之间长期密切关系的一个表现。在巴尔米斯来到珠江三角洲200周年之际,我们不应忘记三地人民之间在历史上的紧密关系,这一关系仍继续支持和维系着中菲两国,它也将把我们带向未来。     

Child Survival and Fertility of Refugees in Rwanda

In the 1960s and 1990s, internal strife in Rwanda has caused a mass flow of refugees into neighbouring countries. This article explores the cumulated fertility of Rwandan refugee women and the survival of their children. To this end, we use a national survey conducted between 1999 and 2001 and covering 6,420 former refugee and non-refugee households. The findings support old-age security theories of reproductive behaviour: refugee women had higher fertility but their children had lower survival chances. Newborn girls suffered more than boys, suggesting that the usual sex differential in child survival observed in most populations changes under extreme living conditions.