Family values on the rise while women fall in Russia

The transformation of Russia is inflicting a vigorous social shock that is degrading morals outside the family and significantly diminishes the sociopolitical power and protections of women and children. The great flexibility of the Russian family helps everyone cope successfully with the present ordeals of life, even as it occurs mostly at the expense of women. But even the resources, materials and morals of the family are limited, and those of Russian women are in particular jeopardy since they were summoned first and sacrifice the most to meet the present threats.     

Recent Mortality Trend Reversal in Russia: Are Regions Following the Same Tempo?

After several decades of negative trends and short-term fluctuations, life expectancy has been increasing in Russia since 2004. Between 2003 and 2014, the length of life rose by 6.6 years among males and by 4.6 years among females. While positive trends in life expectancy are observed in all regions of Russia, these trends are unfolding differently in different regions. First, regions entered the phase of life expectancy growth at different points in time. Second, the age- and cause-specific components of the gains in life expectancy and the number of years added vary noticeably. In this paper, we apply decomposition techniques—specifically, the stepwise replacement algorithm—to examine the age- and cause-specific components of the changes in inter-regional disparities during the current period of health improvement. The absolute inter-regional disparities in length of life, measured by the population-weighted standard deviation, decreased slightly between 2003 and 2014, from 3.3 to 3.2 years for males, and from 2.0 to 1.8 years for females. The decomposition of these small changes by ages and causes of death shows that these shifts were the result of diverse effects of mortality convergence at young and middle ages, and of mortality divergence at older ages. With respect to causes of death, the convergence is mainly attributable to external causes, while the inter-regional divergence of trends is largely determined by cardiovascular diseases. The two major cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, are currently pioneering mortality improvements in Russia and are making the largest contributions to the inter-regional divergence.     

An Adaptive,Rate‐Optimal Test of a Parametric Mean‐Regression Model Against a Nonparametric Alternative

We develop a new test of a parametric model of a conditional mean function against a nonparametric alternative. The test adapts to the unknown smoothness of the alternative model and is uniformly consistent against alternatives whose distance from the parametric model converges to zero at the fastest possible rate. This rate is slower than n^−1/2. Some existing tests have nontrivial power against restricted classes of alternatives whose distance from the parametric model decreases at the rate n^−1/2. There are, however, sequences of alternatives against which these tests are inconsistent and ours is consistent. As a consequence, there are alternative models for which the finite‐sample power of our test greatly exceeds that of existing tests. This conclusion is illustrated by the results of some Monte Carlo experiments.     

Perestroika,Second Edition

The author assesses the prospects of a "second perestroika" based on his interpretation of modern Russian history in terms of the concepts of revolution and counterrevolution.     

The refusenik community in Moscow: social networks and models of identification

Since the late nineteenth century the history of Russian Jewry has been one of contradictory trends: on the one hand, large-scale migration and resettlement (both abroad and in the major industrial and cultural centres of Russia/the USSR/the former Soviet Union [FSU]); and, on the other hand, attempts to (re-)establish a full Jewish life and adapt it to changing conditions. The refuseniks – a small but notable group of Soviet Jewish activists who were prevented by the Soviet authorities from leaving the country for Israel – melded both trends. Despite extensive literature on this subject, we are still lacking satisfactory answers to a few important questions, dealing with the factors in the creation of the Zionist refusenik community, its organisational frameworks, and the social and political legacy of the refuseniks for Jewish communities of the post-Soviet space and the “new Russian Jewish diaspora.” This article addresses refusenik associations in Moscow and in some other places as a “community in the making,” which between the early 1970s and mid 1980s, a period of Jewish national awakening in the USSR, experienced a process of gradual transformation from an amorphous semi-structured entity to a more institutionalised structure.     

Decomposing change in life expectancy: A bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th birthday

We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy in Sweden and Japan.     

Adaptive designs for selecting drug combinations based on efficacy–toxicity response

We propose a new adaptive procedure for dose-finding in clinical trials with combination of two drugs when both efficacy and toxicity responses are available. We model the distribution of this bivariate binary endpoint using the bivariate probit model. The analytic formulae for the Fisher information matrix are obtained, that form the basis for derivation of the locally optimal, minimax, Bayesian, and adaptive designs in the framework of optimal design theory.