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81.
Wai-Sum Chan 《Journal of applied statistics》1999,26(1):35-44
Assume that a k-element vector time series follows a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Obtaining simultaneous forecasts of the k elements of the vector time series is an important problem. Based on the Bonferroni inequality, Lutkepohl (1991) derived the procedures which construct the conservative joint forecast regions for the VAR model. In this paper, we propose to use an exact method which provides shorter prediction intervals than does the Bonferroni method. Three illustrative examples are given for comparison of the various VAR forecasting procedures. 相似文献
82.
Qiqi Chen PhD Camilla Lo PhD Mengtong Chen PhD Ko Ling Chan PhD Patrick Ip MPH 《Child & Family Social Work》2023,28(4):992-1000
Victimizations from online and offline violence, such as sibling violence, school violence and witness of family violence, both have negative associations with victims' mental health and may share similar individual and family characteristics. This study aims to explore the common and differentiated characteristics in the prediction of school, cyber and family victimization and whether there are unique associations within these victimization types. We employed a two-stage stratified sampling method to collect a representative sample of 5567 children aged 3–17 from a cross-sectional, school-based survey in Hong Kong. Results showed that all types of child victimization, including sibling, school and cyberbullying, as well as the witness of violence at home, were positively correlated with each other. Children's age was positively related to the occurrence and cooccurrence of all types of child victimization. Frequent family residential mobility and parents' higher education level were positively related to all types of children's victimization. The scores of all aspects of children's paediatric quality of life were found negatively related to children's school victimization. This study provides insight into the unique and shared elements of children's online and offline victimization. Knowledge of the distinguished familial gradients of child victimization at home and beyond could benefit the development of child victimization prevention. 相似文献
83.
There has been considerable discussion in recent decades about the integration patterns of new immigrants. Recognizing advancements in technology and the increased economic integration of countries, some researchers have suggested that the emerging integration trend for immigrants is the transnational pattern, whereby immigrants maintain contact with the home countries. To advance the discussion, this study focuses on general transnational contact, a basic form of transnational activity. The study draws from recently collected large‐scale survey data to explore the patterns of transnational contact within two recent immigrant groups, Asian Indians and Chinese, in Toronto. Our findings show that only a small percentage of immigrants maintain intensive and extensive transnational contact. As well, our findings are less consistent with the transnational perspective than with the assimilation perspective on the effects of socioeconomic background on transnational contacts. 相似文献
84.
Victor K. Y. Chan 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2010,26(1):35-52
This article describes the use of neural networks (a type of artificial intelligence) and an empirical data sample of, inter
alia, the amounts of bets laid and the winnings/losses made in successive games by a number of cyber-gamblers to longitudinally
model gamblers’ behavior and decisions as to such bet amounts and the temporal trajectory of winnings/losses. The data was
collected by videoing Texas Holdem gamblers at a cyber-gambling website. Six “persistent” gamblers were identified, totaling
675 games. The neural networks on average were able to predict bet amounts and cumulative winnings/losses in successive games
accurately to three decimal places of the dollar. A more important conclusion is that the influence of a gambler’s skills,
strategies, and personality on his/her successive bet amounts and cumulative winnings/losses is almost totally reflected by
the pattern(s) of his/her winnings/losses in the few initial games and his/her gambling account balance. This partially invalidates
gamblers’ illusions and fallacies that they can outperform others or even bankers. For government policy-makers, gambling
industry operators, economists, sociologists, psychiatrists, and psychologists, this article provides models for gamblers’
behavior and decisions. It also explores and exemplifies the usefulness of neural networks and artificial intelligence at
large in the research on gambling. 相似文献
85.
针对新时期我国经济向高质量发展转型的实际背景,结合现有高校创新人才培养过程中应重视的问题,探析了以市场为导向,以高新技术产品为驱动的创新人才培养模式.有利于激发学生的创新意识,挖掘学生的创新潜能;促进和提升学生创新精神和创新能力的培养质量,建立调研、激发、培养、发展的全过程培养体系;调动学生的科技创新积极性,提高学... 相似文献
86.
For right-censored data, the accelerated failure time (AFT) model is an alternative to the commonly used proportional hazards regression model. It is a linear model for the (log-transformed) outcome of interest, and is particularly useful for censored outcomes that are not time-to-event, such as laboratory measurements. We provide a general and easily computable definition of the R2 measure of explained variation under the AFT model for right-censored data. We study its behavior under different censoring scenarios and under different error distributions; in particular, we also study its robustness when the parametric error distribution is misspecified. Based on Monte Carlo investigation results, we recommend the log-normal distribution as a robust error distribution to be used in practice for the parametric AFT model, when the R2 measure is of interest. We apply our methodology to an alcohol consumption during pregnancy data set from Ukraine. 相似文献
87.
In this paper, the limit distribution of the least squares estimator for mildly explosive autoregressive models with strong mixing innovations is established, which is shown to be Cauchy as in the iid case. The result is applied to identify the onset and the end of an explosive period of an econometric time series. Simulations and data analysis are also conducted to demonstrate the usefulness of the result. 相似文献
88.
Chak Kwan Chan 《International Journal of Social Welfare》2011,20(1):22-32
Chan CK. Hong Kong: workfare in the world's freest economy Int J Soc Welfare 2011: 20: 22–32 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. Workfare was introduced in many countries to suppress welfare dependency and reduce social security expenditures. However, workfare was launched in Hong Kong when there was only a relatively small social security budget and its citizens still strongly adhered to the ideologies of self‐reliance. It was found that workfare has performed several functions in Hong Kong. First, by forcing unemployed claimants to give up benefits, Hong Kong has been able to save on social security expenditures. Second, workfare has combined with Hong Kong's semi‐democratic polity so that extremely stigmatising welfare measures have been implemented. Third, it has pushed poor citizens into the labour market without having any protection over wages and working hours. Thus, the combination of workfare and a semi‐democratic polity has successfully suppressed Hong Kong's welfare demands and strengthened its self‐help spirit. As a result, Hong Kong's minimal social security scheme and its low tax policy have been maintained. 相似文献
89.
From Transitional to Permanent Uncertainty: Employability of Middle‐aged Workers in Hong Kong 下载免费PDF全文
Raymond K.H. Chan 《Asian Social Work and Policy Review》2016,10(3):358-374
Since the 1990s, Hong Kong has experienced increasing economic uncertainty. Middle‐aged workers, who often have little formal education and limited skills, have been the first casualties of economic restructuring. Initially, their unemployment was considered transitional. Limited government‐sponsored retraining programs were expected to improve their employability. Subsequent economic crises, however, have undercut the hopes of both workers and policy‐makers. Despite improvements in the job market since the mid‐2000s, the belief that unemployment was transitional has been replaced by a permanent state of uncertainty and consequent anxiety. Flexibility is considered the key to sustaining economic growth, and would relieve the insecurity and anxiety associated with unemployment. Policies have been modified, but they are still based on a narrowly defined concept of individual employability, which consolidates the sense of uncertainty. To address the factors contributing to the perception of permanent uncertainty among middle‐aged workers, we advocate a pragmatic approach that takes reference from the notion of flexicurity to mitigate this sense of uncertainty. 相似文献
90.
Selina Ching Chan 《Identities: Global Studies in Culture and Power》2013,20(2-3):204-227
This article adopts a processual and relational approach to study food remembrance and investigates how different ways of appropriating food reveal the politics of identities in Hong Kong. It examines how food memories reveal relationships between the past and the present, reflect epochal transformation, and mark changing identities of various groups of people through new ways of appropriations. It takes the case study of pancai, a special banquet food for the villagers in the New Territories of Hong Kong, to examine the relationships between food and identities. This article investigates how pancai is remembered, popularized, and reinvented with different variations and embodies shifting meanings for the New Territories inhabitants as well as other Hong Kong people in changing socioeconomic and political environments. Pancai has been imbued with multiple layers of significance, involving linkages between local and national, emigration and Chineseness, urbanization and rural heritage, as well as decolonization and identity politics. As identities are by nature negotiable, situational, and fluidic, pancai's multiple layers of meanings correspond to different levels of identities—identities of the New Territories inhabitants, the rest of the Hong Kong people, and the mainland Chinese. 相似文献