Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation for possibly asymmetric and non-stationary time series using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approach

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, called a reversible jump MCMC, is employed in model selection and parameter estimation for possibly non-stationary and non-linear time series data. The non-linear structure is modelled by the asymmetric momentum threshold autoregressive process (MTAR) of Enders & Granger (1998) or by the asymmetric self-exciting threshold autoregressive process (SETAR) of Tong (1990). The non-stationary and non-linear feature is represented by the MTAR (or SETAR) model in which one ( 𝜌 1 ) of the AR coefficients is greater than one, and the other ( 𝜌 2 ) is smaller than one. The other non-stationary and linear, stationary and nonlinear, and stationary and linear features, represented respectively by ( 𝜌 1 = 𝜌 2 = 1 ), ( 𝜌 1 p 𝜌 2 < 1 ) and ( 𝜌 1 = 𝜌 2 < 1 ), are also considered as possible models. The reversible jump MCMC provides estimates of posterior probabilities for these four different models as well as estimates of the AR coefficients 𝜌 1 and 𝜌 2 . The proposed method is illustrated by analysing six series of US interest rates in terms of model selection, parameter estimation, and forecasting.     

论江泽民人的全面发展思想

江泽民同志继承马克思主义人的全面发展思想 ,在继承的基础上创新 ,在创新的基础上发展 ,表现了马克思主义与时俱进的理论品质和科学态度。人的全面发展是共产主义社会理想目标 ,同时也是建设社会主义新社会的本质要求。它与社会生产力、经济文化的发展目标一致 ,互为前提和基础 ,是社会主义新型文明的必由之路。提高全民族的思想道德素质和科学文化素质是人的全面发展的首要任务 ;实现人们思想和精神生活的全面发展 ,不断满足人们的物质精神文化生活的需要是党始终代表中国最广大人民根本利益的归宿     

Four‐Month Attentional Regulation and Its Prediction of Three‐Year Compliance

The extent to which 4‐month attentional regulation during an infant‐mother still‐face situation and 12‐month attachment security during the Strange Situation predicted rates of compliance and noncompliance during a cleanup task at 36 months was examined longitudinally in 70 infant‐mother dyads. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that infants who showed more attentional regulation during the still‐face situation with mothers later showed a higher rate of committed compliance and a lower rate of situational compliance during cleanup with mothers. Furthermore, lower levels of attentional regulation were later associated with higher rates of assertive behavior, but only for infants in an insecure attachment relationship.     

股票市场状态的动力学过程分析

就股票市场呈现的变化归纳为四种状态,即随机游走态、扩散漂移态、混沌震荡态、连贯平稳态,并对每一状态给出了动力学过程的数学描述,研究了各种"过程"下方程的解,以及各种状态下对股市价格带来的系统效应.从股市的微观结构出发,探讨了四种状态下的股市特征表现及投资者的操作策略,为实时地预测股市发展提供了辅助决策.     

多项式组最大公因子的求法

介绍了一种P[x]上的多项式组最大公因子的求法 .     

兰溪童公山村轿夫对其主顾依附关系特点考

通过就兰溪童公山村轿夫对其主顾依附关系的实证分析 ,不仅证明兰溪历史上曾有过被称为“轿夫”的堕民 ,也给历史留下一个贱民对其主顾是如何依附的实证 ,还对贱民存在的根本原因作了初步探讨。笔者认为至少该地贱民的存在是社会原因造成的 ,学者认同的“政治民族压迫说”是不适用的     

Parameterized integer programming models for multifactors representatives apportionment

This paper develops parameterized integer programming models for the problem of multifactors representatives apportionment. In the light of the idea of the optimal uniform approximation theory, we formulate such apportionment problem as three mathematical models. In all of the models, the total number of representatives is regarded as an adaptable parameter, the unfair degree of apportionment is evaluated using the norm-∞ of the vector, and the social characteristics of the different “units” are described by introducing the concept of the factor level matrix. In addition, we also attempt to describe some natural properties of each member in our models.     

Intermarriages Between Western Women and Palestinian Men: Multidirectional Adaptation Processes

This article addresses cultural adaptation of Western‐Palestinian intermarried couples. Using in‐depth interviews, information was gathered from 16 participants, 7 Western women and 9 Palestinian men, living in Palestinian cities in the West Bank. Adaptation strategies are typified by the extent to which each spouse embraces the partner's culture. The data suggest that intermarriage engenders a multidirectional adaptation process. Patriarchy and East‐West power relations affect mainly the women, having to face marginalization on the basis of their gender and their foreignness. The men undergo a double process of cultural adaptation: to the Western culture and to their native culture after their return. Both the husbands’ extended family and the Israeli‐Palestinian conflict were found to affect both partners’ adaptation.     

Gendered Perspectives in Psychology: Immigrant Origin Youth

In this article, we contend that the field of psychology has largely failed to foreground the role of gender in its study of immigration. Here, we review studies that address gender and migration focusing on the experience of children and adolescents. We provide developmental perspectives on family relations, well‐being, identity formation, and educational outcomes, paying particular attention to the role of gender in these domains. We conclude with recommendations for future research, which include the need to consider whether, and if so, how, when, and why it makes a difference to be an immigrant, to be from a particular country, or to be female rather than male. We argue that it is important to consider socioeconomic characteristics; to consider resilience as well as pathology; and to work in interdisciplinary ways to deepen our understanding of the gendered migratory experience of immigrant origin youth.     

Child‐Care Usage and Mother‐Infant “Quality Time”

Mothers' time‐use patterns were compared in families in which infants spent more than 30 hours per week in child care (In‐Care group; n= 143) versus 0 hours per week (At‐Home group; n= 183) from birth to 6 months of age. In‐Care group mothers spent about 12 fewer hours per week interacting with their infants, for about 32% less time; fathers of these infants were more involved in caregiving. The groups did not differ in the quality of mother‐infant interaction. In the In‐Care group, quantity of interaction was related to greater separation anxiety and concerns about effects of maternal employment. Time‐use data were not related to child outcomes at 15 months of age. Results suggest that the effect of extensive time spent apart on the quantity and quality of mother‐infant interaction may be smaller than anticipated.