异质性视角下中国农村居民减贫效应研究——基于FGT贫困指数的分解新方法

在我国即将完成脱贫攻坚背景下,异质性在居民减贫并防返贫进程中逐渐起到关键作用。本文通过反事实分析法将收入分布变迁分解为均值、方差以及残差三种变化,进而将其引入贫困分解中,对我国农村及区域贫困进行分解。研究表明,引入收入分布变迁贫困分解结果具有稳健性,且农村居民收入增长效应与离散效应存在非对称性,提高收入已不足以弥补收入差距扩大带来的贫困加深效应,而异质效应和离散效应间存在对称性,居民异质性在减贫进程中逐渐起到关键作用。同时从区域视角看,东部区域异质效应减贫效果明显高于增长效应;中部区域增长效应和异质效应均具有显著减贫效果;而西南区域增长效应的减贫效果最显著。     

新传媒,新世界: 网络时代的哲学反思

新传媒正在从时空观念、经济组织形式和社会结构等方面全方位地形成一个新世界,这个新世界是一个以互联网为社会深层结构的开放世界,它的地平线已经显现。作为新世界的网络世界,有其自身的逻辑,但离不开人类的积极参与。新世界在方法论上,更倾向于归纳逻辑、认知逻辑和论辩理论。新世界的出现使人们对资本主义何时灭亡、人的主体地位等问题产生更多的开放性思考。     

Empirical likelihood based detection procedure for change point in mean residual life functions under random censorship

The mean residual life (MRL) function is one of the basic parameters of interest in survival analysis that describes the expected remaining time of an individual after a certain age. The study of changes in the MRL function is practical and interesting because it may help us to identify some factors such as age and gender that may influence the remaining lifetimes of patients after receiving a certain surgery. In this paper, we propose a detection procedure based on the empirical likelihood for the changes in MRL functions with right censored data. Two real examples are also given: Veterans' administration lung cancer study and Stanford heart transplant to illustrate the detecting procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastically optimal bootstrap sample size for shrinkage-type statistics

In nonregular problems where the conventional \(n\) out of \(n\) bootstrap is inconsistent, the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap provides a useful remedy to restore consistency. Conventionally, optimal choice of the bootstrap sample size \(m\) is taken to be the minimiser of a frequentist error measure, estimation of which has posed a major difficulty hindering practical application of the \(m\) out of \(n\) bootstrap method. Relatively little attention has been paid to a stronger, stochastic, version of the optimal bootstrap sample size, defined as the minimiser of an error measure calculated directly from the observed sample. Motivated by this stronger notion of optimality, we develop procedures for calculating the stochastically optimal value of \(m\). Our procedures are shown to work under special forms of Edgeworth-type expansions which are typically satisfied by statistics of the shrinkage type. Theoretical and empirical properties of our methods are illustrated with three examples, namely the James–Stein estimator, the ridge regression estimator and the post-model-selection regression estimator.     

借异写实,发抒孤愤:《聊斋志异》的创作笔法与创作主旨

《聊斋志异》以善写鬼狐故事而构成题材上的"异";但作家的创作主旨是要借助这些奇异的题材来反映现实,发抒孤愤,寄托理想.为实现这一主旨,作家使用了种种特异的笔法,即"借异写实",通过"亦真亦幻"、"奇思异想"、"变形与放大"和"写实中求异"四个方面,实现作者的创作主旨.     

Opportunities for woman-initiated HIV prevention methods among female sex workers in southern China

Rapid changes in China over the past two decades have led to significant problems associated with population migration and changing social attitudes, including a growing sex industry and concurrent increases in STIs and HIV. This article reports results of an exploratory study of microbicide acceptability and readiness and current HIV prevention efforts among female sex workers in two rural and one urban town in Hainan and Guangxi Provinces in southern China. The study focused on these women's knowledge and cultural understandings of options for protecting themselves from exposure to STIs and HIV, and the potential viability and acceptability of woman-initiated prevention methods. We report on ethnographic elicitation interviews conducted with women working within informal sex-work establishments (hotels, massage and beauty parlors, roadside restaurants, boarding houses). We discuss implications of these findings for further promotion of woman-initiated prevention methods such as microbicides and female condoms among female sex workers in China.     

TEDA西区拱桥设计

一、工程概况 天津市经济技术开发区西区中心庄路-京津塘高速公路拱桥是开发区西区基础设施一期工程的重要单体项目之一,位于开发区中心庄路与京津塘高速公路相交处,系分离式立交桥,立交桥沿中心庄路上跨京津塘高速公路,主桥采用双铰型上承式拱桥结构,主桥主拱净跨径62米,矢高8.8米,拱上建筑总跨径70米,桥面单幅宽度18米,一跨跨越京津塘高速公路,斜交角度为65度,引桥采用钢筋混凝土π形梁,立交跨径布置为19×20 70 19×20米,桥梁总长度为830米,桥梁总面积为30880平方米.     

跳出地产看地产——试论滨海新区房地产的宏观走势

滨海新区的开发开放正式纳入国家战略已有一年,在此前后,滨海新区的房地产开发热已持续近两年.静观这两年的事态变化,开发者已由最初的喧嚣、癫狂而趋于理性,置业者和投资者浮躁的功利心态也逐步冷却.显然,坊间追捧和媒体热炒的房地产开发"盛世"并未如期而至;一些先行者创造的个案营销神话,似乎也未再现,惟一的奇迹,就是滨海的房价一再拉高,已经与中心城区比肩.滨海新区的房地产到底出现了什么问题?原因何在?需要有一个客观的诊断和解答.     

水族古文字与甲骨文的联系

长期以来在水族社会使用的《水书》是用水族文字书写的。其年代久远的《水书》呈现的是水族古文字。本文通过对比研究的方式,从时间与地域、书写字体形态、书写文化等三个方面论证,认为水族古文字与甲骨文有密切联系,水族古文字是古代神本文化的活化石。     

脆弱而短暂的缓和——1975至1978年的越南与东盟关系

1975至1978年,出于各自利益和现实需要的考虑,长期敌视的越南与东盟关系迅速实现了缓和。但是,由于双方推行缓和的目的存在巨大差异,注定了此次缓和不可避免地具有脆弱性和短暂性。