Artificial intelligence and formal models of international behavior

During the past five years, models and techniques developed in artificial intelligence (AI) have been applied to a wide variety of topics in international relations (IR). These applications build on a theoretical base established at MIT during the 1970s, and the expansion of the applications reflects both changes in AI research and limitations of alternative models such as statistical modeling and rational choice approaches. Current applications in IR/AI tend to fall into three categories. First, there have been extensive applications of if-then rules in expert systems and simulations. Second, many models emphasize the role of historical precedent in IR decision making. Third, a variety of approaches employing natural language are under development. These AI techniques have extended considerably the range and complexity of formal models of international behavior. He has spent the past four years working on applications of artificial intelligence to the problem of making short-term predictions of international behavior. He is author ofMicrocomputer Methods for Social Scientists (Sage 1987) and numerous articles on mathematical modeling.     

INTERVENTION STRATEGIES: PREDICTING FAMILY THERAPY OUTCOME*

A pre-defined list of family therapy intervention strategies was used to predict post-therapy perceived life happiness and marital happiness among husbands and wives. Clients presented with both child and marriage-focused problems. The data were analyzed separately for husbands and wives. In general, favorable outcome for husbands was associated with active restructuring operations on the part of the therapist. Prediction of outcome for wives was less clear. However, wives did appear to respond favorably to less active interventions such as actualizing transactional patterns and reframing.     

The news value of nonprofit organizations and issues

This article reports on a study of the newsworthiness of information about nonprofit organizations and issues. The two-part study included content analysis of news stories in the 1991 editions of the San Francisco Chronicle and interview with editors and reporters at the paper.     

Psychopathology in pathological gamblers seeking treatment

High rates of psychiatric symptoms have been reported in pathological gamblers. This study of psychiatric comorbidity in pathological gamblers is the first to use structured psychiatric interviews assessing DSM-III-R Axis I and II disorders. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM III-R (SCID-P, SCID-II) was administered to 40 (25 male, 15 male) pathological gamblers seeking outpatient treatment in Minnesota for gambling, and 64 (41 male, 23 female) controls. High lifetime rates of Axis I (92%) but not Axis II (25%) psychopathology were found in pathological gamblers as compared to controls. No differences between male and female gamblers were found in rates of affective, substance use or personality disorders. Females had higher rates of anxiety disorders and histories of physical/sexual abuse. Possible associations between psychiatric disorders and pathological gambling are discussed along with gambler typologies and implications for future research.The authors wish to gratefully acknowledge the assistance of: Gary Christenson, M.D., Carol Peterson, Ph.D., William Meller, M.D., Thomas Mackenzie, M.D.     

Asymptotic properties of a generalized regression-type predictor of a finite population variance in probability sampling

A system of predictors for estimating a finite population variance is defined and shown to be asymptotically design-unbiased (ADU) and asymptotically design-consistent (ADC) under probability sampling. An asymptotic mean squared error (MSE) of a generalized regression-type predictor, generated from the system, is obtained. The suggested predictor attains the minimum expected variance of any design-unbiased estimator when the superpopulation model is correct. The generalized regression-type predictor and the predictor suggested by Mukhopadhyay (1990) are compared.     

THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONTINUOUS CASTING IN THE U. S. STEEL INDUSTRY: COMMENT

In a recent article, Professor Ault has stated that:
studies of the steel industry during the fifties and early sixties have indicated that the major cause of the deterioration of the ability of the U.S. industry to compete was the failure of increases in the productivity of US. steel workers to keep pace with increases in the wages and benefits paid to those workers. One of the principal causes for this lag in productivity was the failure of major U.S. producers to adopt the Basic Oxygen Furnace as rapidly as major foreign producers…despite the fact that the Oxygen converter proved to be capable of producing basic steel products at lower unit cost than any other production technique.