Distribution of the two‐sample t‐test statistic following blinded sample size re‐estimation

We consider the blinded sample size re‐estimation based on the simple one‐sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two‐sample t‐test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re‐estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non‐inferiority margin for non‐inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

权力话语视阈下的《愤怒的葡萄》

《愤怒的葡萄》是约翰·斯坦贝克的代表作。小说讲述了在20世纪30年代美国经济萧条背景下,乔德一家人向加利福尼亚逃荒,以图获得美好的生活。然而,现实的残酷造成等待他们的仍然是饥荒、贫穷和失业,美梦的破碎导致成千上万像乔德这样的家庭奋起反抗。以权力话语理论为切入点,对小说中的主要人物进行解读,有助于实现微观权力和宏观权力的结合,进一步加深对小说的理解。     

论王闿运《楚辞释》的政治化阐释及其影响

王闿运《楚辞释》着重从时世政治的角度解读《楚辞》,围绕屈原“兴楚返王”的愿望、“荐列众贤”的举措和所谓“款秦误国”的罪名三个重要政治节点展开。这种政治化阐释的背后有其纵横思想的主导和深刻的政治寄寓,并在客观上打上了求新尚奇的烙印,对其弟子廖平的楚辞研究产生了深远影响,在楚辞学史上掀起一股尚奇疑古之风,并推动楚辞研究朝求新求变的方向发展。     

重庆市融入国家“一带一路”战略的思考

重庆作为中国西部唯一的直辖市,是国家“一带一路”战略中承东启西、联接南北的重要联接点,具有极其重要的区位优势。依据重庆独有的发展优势,结合“一带一路”战略对重庆市“西部地区开发开放支撑点”的定位要求,提出了优化对外开放的良好环境、坚持“走出去”与“引进来”相结合、创新产业业态等方面的发展思路,以期实现对国家“一带一路”战略同重庆自身特点的深度结合,为将重庆市打造成为内陆开放的新高地提出可供参考的建议。     

Diagnostics in elliptical regression models with stochastic restrictions applied to econometrics

We propose an influence diagnostic methodology for linear regression models with stochastic restrictions and errors following elliptically contoured distributions. We study how a perturbation may impact on the mixed estimation procedure of parameters in the model. Normal curvatures and slopes for assessing influence under usual schemes are derived, including perturbations of case-weight, response variable, and explanatory variable. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology. An example with real-world economy data is presented as an illustration.     

Investigating impacts of complex sampling on latent growth curve modelling

We investigate the impacts of complex sampling on point and standard error estimates in latent growth curve modelling of survey data. Methodological issues are illustrated with empirical evidence from the analysis of longitudinal data on life satisfaction trajectories using data from the British Household Panel Survey, a national representative survey in Great Britain. A multi-process second-order latent growth curve model with conditional linear growth is used to study variation in the two perceived life satisfaction latent factors considered. The benefits of accounting for the complex survey design are considered, including obtaining unbiased both point and standard error estimates, and therefore correctly specified confidence intervals and statistical tests. We conclude that, even for the rather elaborated longitudinal data models that were considered, estimation procedures are affected by variance-inflating impacts of complex sampling.     

Cultural capital or relative risk aversion? Two mechanisms for educational inequality compared1

In this paper we empirically examined two explanatory mechanisms for educational inequality: cultural reproduction and relative risk aversion, using survey data taken from secondary school pupils in Amsterdam. Cultural reproduction theory seeks to explain class variations in schooling by cultural differences between social classes. Relative risk aversion theory argues that educational inequalities can be understood by between-class variation in the necessity of pursuing education at branching points in order to avoid downward mobility. We showed that class variations in early demonstrated ability are for a substantial part cultural: cultural capital - measured by parental involvement in highbrow culture - affected school performance at the primary and secondary level. However, relative risk aversion - operationalized by being concerned with downward mobility - strongly affects schooling ambitions, whereas cultural capital had no effect. Thus, we conclude that 'primary effects' of social origin on schooling outcomes are manifested through cultural capital and not through relative risk aversion (in addition to other potential sources of class variations such as genetics). Relative risk aversion, and not cultural capital, affects schooling ambitions, which is relevant for our understanding of secondary effects.     

Assessing the relevance of higher education courses

The establishment of the European Higher Education Area has involved specifying lists of professional competencies that programs are expected to develop, and with this the need for procedures to measure how every course within a higher education program is aligned with the program's competencies. We propose an instrument for characterizing this alignment, a process that we call assessing the relevance of a course. Using information from the course syllabus (objectives, contents and assessment scheme), our instrument produces indicators for characterizing the syllabus in terms of a competence list and for assessing its coherence. Because assessment involves quality, the results obtained can also be used to revise and improve the course syllabus. We illustrate this process with an example of a methods course from a mathematics teacher education program at a Spanish university.     

Semi-structured interview protocol for constructing logic models

This paper details a semi-structured interview protocol that evaluators can use to develop a logic model of a program's services and outcomes. The protocol presents a series of questions, which evaluators can ask of specific program informants, that are designed to: (1) identify key informants basic background and contextual information, (2) generate logic model elements, (3) model program inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes, (4) build a rational theory, (5) develop a program theory, (6) prioritize logic model elements, and (7) build a graphical or tabular logic model. The paper will also provide an example of how this approach was used to develop a logic model for a youth mentoring program. It is our hope and belief that with this interview protocol, novice evaluators will be able to generate comprehensive logic models like seasoned professional evaluators.     

天津城市风貌塑造中的非物质要素传承

天津建卫六百年以来．社会文化的演变经历了数个重要过程．每个过程对天津城市风貌的塑造都起到了不同的作用。纵观这六百多年的城市建设历史不难发现．天津城市文化及核心价值观体现在如下几方面：