Doubly periodic non-homogeneous Poisson models for hurricane data

Non-homogeneous Poisson processes with periodic claim intensity rate have been proposed as claim counts in risk theory. Here a doubly periodic Poisson model with short- and long-term trends is studied. Beta-type intensity functions are presented as illustrations. The likelihood function and the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters are derived.Doubly periodic Poisson models are appropriate when the seasonality does not repeat exactly the same short-term pattern every year, but has a peak intensity that varies over a longer period. This reflects periodic environments like those forming hurricanes, in alternating El Niño/La Niña years. An application of the model to the data set of Atlantic hurricanes affecting the United States (1899–2000) is discussed in detail.     

邓小平稳定思想探析

稳定是中国社会主义现代化建设顺利进行的前提和保障,稳定是大局,是压倒一切的工作,这是邓小平一贯的战略思想。思想稳定、经济稳定、政治稳定、国际局势稳定是这一战略思想的主要内容。系统地研究邓小平的稳定思想,对不断深化改革,保持持续发展,全面积极稳妥地建设小康社会具有重要的现实意义。     

迈向良性的互动——论我国社会中介组织及与政府的关系

文章从政治社会学的角度界定了中介组织的本质、含义及特征,认为中介组织并非社会团体,而是民办非企业单位,是经济和社会的支持系统.作为社会的一域,它有自己的运作逻辑.当前,中介组织的问题在于政府的越位和失位造成其功能的扭曲.因此,通过制度化的途径建立起二者良性的互动,让政府和社会走向善治,是当代中国改革实践的一个重要课题.     

原地跳起单手肩上投篮易犯的错误及纠正方法

投篮是篮球运动中一项关键性技术,而跳起单手肩上投篮又是使用最为广泛的投篮技术,是篮球比赛的主要得分手段。投篮技术掌握的好坏,直接影响投篮的命中率。纠正错误的投篮动作,是提高投篮技术水平的重要环节。     

我校2003年获9项国家自然科学基金资助项目

本文将核心竞争力思想应用于城市发展系统，对城市核心竞争力进行了研究。提出了城市核心竞争力概念；构建了城市核心竞争能力概念层次模型。通过对优势资源、产业竞争力、城市竞争力和城市核心竞争力四个层次做详尽阐述，为城市管理者分阶段、分步骤实施城市核心竞争力战略提供理论依据。     

Scenario Tree Modeling to Analyze the Probability of Classical Swine Fever Virus Introduction into Member States of the European Union

The introduction of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) into a country free of disease without vaccination may have huge consequences in terms of both disease spread and economic losses. More quantitative insight into the main factors determining the probability of CSFV introduction (PCSFV) is needed to optimally use resources for the prevention of CSFV introduction. For this purpose a spreadsheet model was constructed that calculates the annual PCSFV into member states of the European Union (EU). The scenario pathway approach was used as most probabilities in the model are very small. Probability distributions were used to take into account inherent variability of input parameters. The model contained pathways of CSFV introduction including the import of pigs and pork products, returning livestock trucks, and contacts with wild boar. All EU member states were included as possible sources of CSFV. Default results for the Netherlands showed a mean overall annual PCSFV of approximately 0.06, indicating that the Netherlands can expect CSFV introduction on average once every 18 years from the pathways and countries included in the model. Almost 65% of this probability could be attributed to the pathway of returning livestock trucks. The most likely sources of CSFV introduction were Germany, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Although the calculated probabilities were rather low when compared with expert estimates and recent history, the most likely causes of CSFV introduction indicated by the model were considered to be realistic. It was therefore concluded that the model is a useful tool to structure and analyze information for decision making concerning the prevention of CSFV introduction.     

我国社会保险参保状况研究——以东北三省为例

本文以中国东北三省抽样调查数据为基本依据,首先分析了社会保险各险种实际参保率和意愿参保率的分布特征,以及产生这种分布特征的原因。其次通过比较研究得出实际参保率普遍低于意愿参保率的结论。进一步地,文章通过联列分析的方法,分析了民众对政策的了解程度、收入水平、就业状况和企业所有制等因素与实际参保率之间的关系。     

Teaching and learning in multicultural contexts: a comparative analysis of language teaching and learning in a Norwegian and Dutch primary school classroom

In this paper, multicultural primary school classes in Norway and the Netherlands are compared in terms of language teaching and learning. Drawing on observations, interviews, and school and policy documents, four dimensions of comparison are discussed. First, we deal with the different ways in which separate language classes for language minority pupils were organized in the two cases. Secondly, the different ways of teaching and the underlying views on learning language are characterized. Thirdly, we analyse how these ways of teaching affect on language minority pupils. Fourthly, we address the question as to how these approaches relate to the educational policies, traditions and discourses of the respective countries.