Better Safe than Sorry? The Effects of Income Risk and Unemployment Risk on Wages

We study the effects of income risk and unemployment risk on individual wages simultaneously. Starting point for the empirical analysis is a portfolio model for the labor market. This model shows positive wage effects for both risks but also a negative interaction effect. Using German administrative panel data we estimate the effects of the income risk, the unemployment risk and their interaction on individual wages separately for men and women in East and West Germany. We find the expected positive wage effects for both risks as well as a negative interaction effect. The marginal effect of income risk on wages is positive, whereas the marginal effect of unemployment risk is negative.     

THE RISE OF THE EAST AND THE FAR EAST: GERMAN LABOR MARKETS AND TRADE INTEGRATION

We analyze the effects of the unprecedented rise in trade between Germany and “the East” (China and Eastern Europe) in the period 1988–2008 on German local labor markets. Using detailed administrative data, we exploit the cross‐regional variation in initial industry structures and use trade flows of other high‐income countries as instruments for regional import and export exposure. We find that the rise of the East in the world economy caused substantial job losses in German regions specialized in import‐competing industries, both in manufacturing and beyond. Regions specialized in export‐oriented industries, however, experienced even stronger employment gains and lower unemployment. In the aggregate, we estimate that this trade integration has caused some 442,000 additional jobs in the economy and contributed to retaining the manufacturing sector in Germany. This is almost exclusively driven by the rise of Eastern Europe, not by China. We also conduct an analysis at the individual worker level, and find that trade had a stabilizing overall effect on employment relationships.     

‘I Just Don't Agree’: A Voice-Oriented Analysis of An IFPS Case of Alleged Child Maltreatment

In contrast to the many outcome studies of Intensive Family Preservation Services (IFPS), little is known about the underlying personal and relational dynamics of family crisis interventions. This article focuses on the core evolving dynamics of the changing self-presentations of a parent involved in an intensive home-based family preservation case of alleged child maltreatment. Three key family intervention sessions were videotaped and transcribed including both verbal and nonverbal behavior. The Listening Guide Method – a theoretically flexible, qualitative, relationally oriented method of in-depth interpretative analysis – served as our guide for this case analysis. In the processes of change toward a jointly constructed meaningful narrative on responsibility and self-care, two key elements emerged as playing a pivotal role: (1) the momentum of a potential referral of children to out-of-home care that precedes the start of an IFPS intervention and (2) the rhizomatic or root-like intertwinement of the voices of both parent and therapist with respect to the rationale for any involvement of society in the family. We argue that discourses on imminent placement in the context of family preservation deserve a genuine and valuable position in the initial discourse of a family therapist when entering a family in the context of crisis intervention. Both in understanding and driving any processes of change, we may need to reconsider our own willingness to step into the blending interplay of discourse and counter-discourse with our clients on the subject of our often drastic intervention. Consequently, we may read this narrative analysis as an invitation to reflect on the conceptualization of ‘client readiness’ in psychotherapy and to shift our thinking on preconditions for therapy from a client's readiness toward a therapist's attentiveness to listen.     

Kinect-based choice reaching and stepping reaction time tests for clinical and in-home assessment of fall risk in older people: a prospective study

Background

Quick protective reactions such as reaching or stepping are important to avoid a fall or minimize injuries. We developed Kinect-based choice reaching and stepping reaction time tests (Kinect-based CRTs) and evaluated their ability to differentiate between older fallers and non-fallers and the feasibility of administering them at home.

Methods

A total of 94 community-dwelling older people were assessed on the Kinect-based CRTs in the laboratory and were followed-up for falls for 6 months. Additionally, a subgroup (n?=?20) conducted the Kinect-based CRTs at home. Signal processing algorithms were developed to extract features for reaction, movement and the total time from the Kinect skeleton data.

Results

Nineteen participants (20.2 %) reported a fall in the 6 months following the assessment. The reaction time (fallers: 797?±?136 ms, non-fallers: 714?±?89 ms), movement time (fallers: 392?±?50 ms, non-fallers: 358?±?51 ms) and total time (fallers: 1189?±?170 ms, non-fallers: 1072?±?109 ms) of the reaching reaction time test differentiated well between the fallers and non-fallers. The stepping reaction time test did not significantly discriminate between the two groups in the prospective study. The correlations between the laboratory and in-home assessments were 0.689 for the reaching reaction time and 0.860 for stepping reaction time.

Conclusion

The study findings indicate that the Kinect-based CRT tests are feasible to administer in clinical and in-home settings, and thus represents an important step towards the development of sensor-based fall risk self-assessments. With further validation, the assessments may prove useful as a fall risk screen and home-based assessment measures for monitoring changes over time and effects of fall prevention interventions.

     

In memoriam Gerburg Treusch-Dieter (1939–2006)

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Jürgen H.P. Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik</Emphasis> und <Emphasis Type="Italic">Christof Wolf:</Emphasis> Advances in cross-national comparison. A European working book for demographic and socio-economic variables

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Jürgen H.P. Hoffmeyer-Zlotnik und Christof Wolf: Advances in cross-national comparison. A European working book for demographic and socio-economic variables New York/Boston/Dordrecht/London/Moscow: Kluwer academic/plenum publishers 2003. 413 Seiten. ISBN 0-306-47731-9. Preis: € 153,-

     

Gambling as a function of gender and Sensation Seeking

This study examined the relation of gender and Sensation Seeking (SS) Scale scores to undergraduates' ratings of their past/present and expected future participation in four leisure activities that usually involve betting money. Subjects completed McKeachnie's (1975) Leisure Activities Blank (LAB), which included the gambling items, and Zuckerman's (1979) SS Scale. Men reported significantly more past/present leisure gambling than women; gender differences were insignificant in ratings of expected future gambling. No significant differences in reported past/present gambling related to any SS scale score. However, expected future gambling ratings were associated with scores on two SS subscales: Disinhibition (DIS) and Boredom Susceptibility (BS). Both male and female subjects with high DIS scores rated the frequency of expected future gambling higher than did subjects with low DIS scores. High BS scores were associated with high ratings of expected future gambling in the data for women subjects only. These results suggest that personality factors, among them SS, are more influential than early experience or sex-role socialization in determining a young adult's interest in gambling.     

NBUFR closure under the formation of coherent systems

Closure under the operation of forming coherent systems of independent components is a desirable property for a class of life distributions. We show that the NBUFR class possesses this property.