Divorce,homemaker pensions and lifecycle analysis

The paper addresses aspects of life cycle demographic analysis in three ways. First, the paper describes a methodological innovation-essentially a generalization of multi-state life table techniques using a newly developed monte carlo microsimulation model, DEMOGEN. Second, the DEMOGEN model is applied to an analysis of divorce behaviour. This analysis shows, among other things, that higher divorce rates are not necessarily associated with more time spent by children growing up in lone-parent families. Finally, the DEMOGEN model is used to assess the impact of a major public pension reform option - the inclusion of homemakers under the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans. This latter analysis includes estimates of overall costs and distributional impacts by lifetime income and demographic status.This paper is a work about fiction rather than a work of fiction. Any similarity between the events described here and real family life histories is not a pure and sublime coincidence but rather the result of deliberate forethought. (adapted by M.B. Fiering, 1967)     

Covariates in multipath change‐point problems: Modelling and consistency of the MLE

Although the single‐path change‐point problem has been extensively treated in the statistical literature, its multipath counterpart has largely been ignored. In the multipath change‐point setting, it is often of interest to assess the impact of covariates on the change point itself as well as on the parameters before and after the change point. This paper is concerned only with the inclusion of covariates in the change‐point distribution. This is achieved through the hazard of change. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed and consistency of the maximum likelihood estimators established.     

The Effect of Legislated Minimum Wage Increases on Employment and Hours: A Dynamic Analysis

We present a dynamic policy simulation analysing what would have happened to wages, employment, and total hours had the federal minimum wage increased in September 1998, a year after the last actual increase in our data. Prior work suggests that employment responses take 6 years to play out. Using a time‐series model for 23 low‐wage industries, we find a positive response of average wages over 54 months following an increase in the minimum wage, but neither employment nor hours can be distinguished from random noise. Ignoring confidence intervals, the adjustment of hours is complete after 1 year, the adjustment of employment after no more than two and one half years.