Cox regression of clustered event times with covariates missing not at random

Motivated by a recent tuberculosis (TB) study, this paper is concerned with covariates missing not at random (MNAR) and models the potential intracluster correlation by a frailty. We consider the regression analysis of right‐censored event times from clustered subjects under a Cox proportional hazards frailty model and present the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator (SPMLE) of the model parameters. An easy‐to‐implement pseudo‐SPMLE is then proposed to accommodate more realistic situations using readily available supplementary information on the missing covariates. Algorithms are provided to compute the estimators and their consistent variance estimators. We demonstrate that both the SPMLE and the pseudo‐SPMLE are consistent and asymptotically normal by the arguments based on the theory of modern empirical processes. The proposed approach is examined numerically via simulation and illustrated with an analysis of the motivating TB study data.     

改革开放以来中国民族理论若干问题研究述评

改革开放30年来,在国内外大势的影响下,中国民族理论研究经历了诸多的变化,但总趋势是:在探讨中发展,在摸索中前进。本文所论及的民族概念问题、民族形成问题、民族结构与民族属性问题、民族意识与民族关系问题,只是改革开放以来中国民族理论研究领域中很少但却是比较重要的几个问题。适逢改革开放30年,对这几个问题的研究成果进行归纳、概括和总结,无疑将有助于进一步推进中国民族理论研究的深入和发展。     

Social Change and Social Policy in China: National Adaptation to Global Challenge

As a part of designed human intervention against social problems, social policy has to respond and adapt to social changes. In this article, the author aims to discuss social changes that occurred in the past decade in China (including economic, demographic, and cultural changes) and relate them to relevant social policies formulated by the Chinese government to address the concerned social issues. To interpret the roles of the state, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and the community in tackling social problems in the changing context of the market economy and globalization, the author attempts to provide a theoretical explanation on the emergence of social policy in China in a new era and to further re-assess the concept of the welfare regime in East Asian countries.     

上海地区儿童权利家庭保护影响因素分析

本研究通过对上海地区儿童、家长、儿童教师进行儿童权利家庭保护问卷调查，来探讨当前上海地区儿童权利的家庭保护状况与其影响因素。结果发现：1．总体上，上海地区的家长与儿童对儿童权利受到保护的感知存在一致性，都认为儿童权利受到了较好保护，但在一致的基础上，对具体权利的感知上，儿童与家长还存在着一定的差异性。2．上海地区儿童自我保护意识较高，对《中国未成年人保护法》、自身哪些权利受到保护以及如何保护自身的权利都比较了解。3．儿童自我保护的意识和家长保护儿童权利的意识可能是影响儿童权利保护现状的主要因素。它们显著影响着儿童各个层面权利保护的现状。4．儿童性别、儿童年龄、家庭结构、是否独生子女等客观因素，对儿童与家长对儿童保护权利的感知都存在不同的影响，具有不确定的因素。家长性别、家长文化、经济收入水平仅仅影响家长对儿童权利保护的感知。5．在儿童享有的权利中，参与权受到的保护状况只受儿童性别的影响，保持着相对稳定的状态。儿童与家长对此项权利的衡量标准可能具有一致性。6．家长对孩子在学校教育权的关心只是出于自己是否关心孩子的成绩，而不是家长意识到这是儿童应该享有的权力。在此基础上，本研究提出了相应对策。     

Adaptive multiple importance sampling for Gaussian processes

In applications of Gaussian processes (GPs) where quantification of uncertainty is a strict requirement, it is necessary to accurately characterize the posterior distribution over Gaussian process covariance parameters. This is normally done by means of standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which require repeated expensive calculations involving the marginal likelihood. Motivated by the desire to avoid the inefficiencies of MCMC algorithms rejecting a considerable amount of expensive proposals, this paper develops an alternative inference framework based on adaptive multiple importance sampling (AMIS). In particular, this paper studies the application of AMIS for GPs in the case of a Gaussian likelihood, and proposes a novel pseudo-marginal-based AMIS algorithm for non-Gaussian likelihoods, where the marginal likelihood is unbiasedly estimated. The results suggest that the proposed framework outperforms MCMC-based inference of covariance parameters in a wide range of scenarios.     

Correlates of perceived effectiveness of the Safe Schools/Healthy Students Initiative

A three-level growth-curve model was applied to estimate perceived impact growth trajectories, using multi-year data from project and school surveys on outcome and program implementation collected from 59 sites and approximately 1165 participating schools in the Safe Schools and Healthy Students Initiative. Primary interest is to determine whether and how project-level and school-level correlates affect schools’ perceptions of the Initiative's effectiveness over time when the effects of the pre-grant environmental conditions, grant operations, and near-term outcomes are considered. Coordination and service integration, comprehensive programs and activities for early childhood development, and change in school involvement were found to be significant predictors of school-perceived overall impact when the effect of poverty was considered. Partnership functioning, perceived importance of school resources, and school involvement were found to be significant predictors of school-perceived impact on substance use prevention when the effect of poverty was considered.     

中华全国文艺界抗敌协会在渝会所详考

中华全国文艺界抗敌协会总会迁渝之后,初在公园路青年会104号办公,后租得临江门横街33号作为会所,因日机轰炸被毁,又租得张家花园65号为新会所。其“两翼”,一为南温泉南泉新村24号附3号,有会员宿舍数间;二是北碚办事处,初在北碚汽车站旁边的“止庐”,后迁蔡锷路24号林语堂住宅。文中的考证,既是对“文协”总会史迹的彰明,同时也是对其民族节概的阐扬。     

在线双向拍卖中的不完全信息博弈仿真研究

双向拍卖机制能较好地解决在线拍卖中如何有效利用网络资源、减轻网络负荷的问题,而构造双向拍卖的报价模型和策略是其重要内容之一。从实验经济学方法的角度,构造了在线双向拍卖中不完全信息博弈下存在的贝叶斯—纳什均衡并求解,通过计算机仿真详细分析了该模型的特点和可行性,为高效利用网络资源、提高在线拍卖效率提供了可行的思路。     

基于ERP与APS集成模型的协同供应链计划研究

对于供应链中的企业而言,如何实现ERP和APS的集成是解决供应链协同计划的关键.为此,利用供应链计划矩阵思想,通过对ERP和APS各个层次上功能模块以及业务流程上的集成,提出了ERP与APS的集成框架模型;在此基础上,研究并提出了协同供应链计划模型.