优选文献材料与叙事史书增进文采之管见

历史真实与叙事史书文采之间的矛盾,是涉及史书撰写的一大问题.如果史学中人能自觉地去优选"正史"、野史笔记和诗词曲赋三大文献类型中那些"真实"与"文采"融为一体的材料,将它们在史书中用活用好,将会极大地改善和增进史书文采.这对于实现史学社会功能具有积极的实践意义.     

服务营销研究的热点与发展趋势

分别选择7种国际一流的营销、服务营销期刊和国内与服务营销密切相关的7种管理类知名期刊作为研究对象,对上述期刊1995年1月1日～2004年7月31日刊登的服务营销文献进行研究,研究项目包括文献数量、主题、研究方法、作者和研究机构等,采用统计分析的方法重点对比考察了国内外学者在服务营销26个主题上的研究重点与研究方法上的差异,并进一步对研究重点主题和定量定性研究方法进行分析说明,总体描述了近10年来服务营销研究的国内外发展现状及趋势,找到我国与国外在6个方面的研究差距,给出我国今后提升服务营销研究的5条建议.     

论当代中国饭店管理理念与实践中的人文导向

随着旅游需求的变迁、科技的发展和新型人力资源的引入,世纪之交的中国饭店业的管理理念和管理实践正在发生一系列的变化。人文导向则是把握这些变化的核心内核,并将主导未来一个时期中国饭店业的创新与发展。在对饭店管理理念进行解说的基础上,本文重点阐述了人文导向的若干载体性事件:管理制度的理性化、对员工的关注、经济型饭店的兴起、绿色饭店等等。     

影响川南浅丘区田坎玉米产量的气候条件分析

利用积分回归方法分析气候因子对川南浅丘区田坎玉米产量的影响。结果表明 ,日照、温度及降雨日数是影响田坎玉米产量的主要因子。苗期的高温 ,生育中期光照不足及灌浆成熟期的雨日偏多均不利于提高田坎玉米产量     

Pregnancy-related dropouts and gender inequality in education: A life-table approach and application to Cameroon

In this study, I used a life-table approach to estimate how much hypothetical reductions in pregnancy-related dropouts would help close the gender gap in educational attainment. Using the schooling histories of 6,686 pupils, I partitioned Cameroon's gender gap in education into "pregnancy-related" and "non-pregnancy-related" components and simulated the impact of reductions in pregnancy-related dropouts on this gap. The results suggest that such reductions would have substantial payoffs in this setting, but payoffs would be the greatest where societies also address gender inequities before puberty and outside the realm of pregnancy. Reductions in pregnancy-related dropouts complement but do not replace efforts to reduce gender discrimination in schooling. Recent data from Demographic and Health Surveys should make it possible to extend this analysis to other countries.     

The Transport System and Society’s Metabolism in the UK

This paper analyses the interrelation between the transport system and measures of resource consumption such as material and energy consumption over a 60-year period (1937–1997) in the UK. Non-motorized transport and time consumption for mobility are estimated in addition to conventional measures of transport. During the period analyzed, the UK population grew by 20% while transport of goods and persons increased more than threefold and material and energy consumption almost doubled. The transport intensity of domestic material input (DMI) doubled to 300 ton-kilometers (tkm) per ton of DMI while the transport intensity of domestic energy consumption (DEC) doubled to 20 tkm per gigajoule (GJ) of DEC. Thus, while the material and energy intensity of GDP declined significantly, a well-established trend in many advanced countries, the transport intensity of materials and energy consumption rose. These findings suggest a close link between transport, economic development, and long-term structural transformations. In the case of personal transport, a rebound effect was also observed: whereas the average speed of transport has greatly increased, the average number of hours per day devoted to personal transport has not declined.     

The impact of cash-benefit reform on parents’ labour force participation

This paper evaluates the impact of a recent Norwegian family-policy reform. The reform provides benefits of up to NOK 3,000 (approximately € 400) per month to families with one- to three-year-old children, who do not utilize state-subsidized day-care centres. We investigate the reforms effect on parents labour force participation. We find that, on average, the reform reduced womens labour force participation and increased the specialization of work between couples. We find that the effect of the reform depends on womens schooling. Specifically, the labour force participation of highly educated mothers fell by more than that of mothers with less education.I am grateful to Associate Professor Espen Bratberg and Professor Alf Erling for their valuable comments. My special thanks to Kjell Vaage, Arild Aakvik and Afsane Bjorvatn for helpful suggestions. This paper was presented in a seminar at the Department of Economics, University of Bergen, Norway. I am thankful to the participants of the seminar for their positive feedback. The paper has also benefited from the reports given by three anonymous referees. I am also thankful to Professor Heather Joshi for helpful remarks on the paper. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

The fertility contribution of Mexican immigration to the United States

Crucial to the long-term contribution of immigration to a receiving country's population is the extent to which the immigrants reproduce themselves in subsequent, native-born generations. Using conventional projection methodologies, this fertility contribution may be poorly estimated primarily because of problems in projecting the number of immigrants who are at risk of childbearing. We propose an alternative method that obviates the need to project the number of immigrants by using the full sending-country birth cohort as the risk group to project their receiving-country childbearing. This "sending-country birth cohort" method is found to perform dramatically better than conventional methods when projecting to 1999 from base years both before and after the large increase in inflows of Mexican immigrants to the United States in the late 1980s. Projecting forward from 1999, we estimate a cumulative contribution of Mexican immigrant fertility from the 1980s to 2040 of 36 million births, including 25% to 50% more births after 1995 than are projected using conventional methods.     

Subjective Distributions

A decision maker has to choose one of several random variables whose distributions are not known. As a Bayesian, she behaves as if she knew the distributions. In this paper we suggest an axiomatic derivation of these (subjective) distributions, which is more economical than the derivations by de Finetti or Savage. Whereas the latter derive the whole joint distribution of all the available random variables, our approach derives only the marginal distributions. Correspondingly, the preference questionnaire needed in our case is less smaller.     

Uncertainty and the Second Space: Modern Birth Timing and the Dilemma of Education

This paper focuses on the relationship between experiential and statistical uncertainties in the timing of births in Cameroon (Central Africa). Most theories of fertility level and change emphasize the emergence of parity-specific control, treating desired family size as both central, and stable across the life course. By contrast, this paper argues for a theory of reproduction that emphasizes process, social context, and contingency. The paper concentrates on the second birth interval, showing that it is longer and more variable among educated than among uneducated women. The paper argues that this difference is due to the specific forms of uncertainty associated with education in contemporary Cameroon.